The situation around Kinmen is escalating, says @GordianKnotRay, as China launches a “gray-zone assault.”
“China has seized on this as an opportunity to increase patrols—so this shows us how China uses pretext as a method for advancing its strategic objectives.”
To celebrate the Lunar New Year, China sent a record-setting 16 weather-spy balloons over & around Taiwan in 2 days.
The balloon barrage—a direct attack on Taiwan’s sovereignty—slowed compared to January (26 total vs 57). Since the first on 7 Dec, 90 balloons have been tracked.
After a spike around Taiwan’s presidential election in January, PLA air activity is down year-over-year:
PLA naval activity is a different story. The 305 warships monitored by Taiwan's defense ministry to date in 2024 represent a 40% increase over last year.
There's been a considerable & sustained increase in the tempo of operations since major exercises in April 2023.
A group of Congressmen visited Taiwan last week, which drew a “stronger than usual response” from Beijing.
China went so far as to publicly demand the U.S. stop any official contact with Taiwan following the trip.
The high-profile delegation of hawkish U.S. lawmakers met with the current & future President of Taiwan.
I've been watching for any heightened military operations—if Beijing matches words with deeds. So far, I haven’t seen much besides a brief uptick yesterday.
Many developments in the cyber domain, which @TheStudyofWar outlines in great detail.
- Unprecedented leak offers insight into cyber capabilities & influence ops
- Increased Chinese cyberattacks in the hours before Taiwan’s election
- Critical U.S. infrastructure compromised
@TheStudyofWar Taiwan expressed anger after China “unilaterally” changed a flight path close to the median line in the Strait, saying it’s a deliberate attempt to change the status quo for possible military means.
“It is trying to completely eliminate & deny the existence of the median line.”
@TheStudyofWar “It’s part of the pattern of gradually altering the status quo in the Taiwan Strait, seeing what they can get away with & shifting to a new normal—restricting Taiwan’s space to move,” a source told Reuters.
China announced two high-profile leadership changes:
• Admiral Hu Zhongming appointed Commander of the People’s Liberation Army Navy
• Hu’s predecessor, Admiral Dong Jun, named Defense Minister
“Embodying Xi’s requirement that his armed forces prepare credible warfighting capabilities, Hu & Dong are the latest in a trend of PLAN leaders bringing increasing operational expertise & focus.”
@TheStudyofWar A few notes from new ISW report:
- Succinct summary of Kinmen situation
- PRC increased deployment of research vessels within 24 nautical miles
- KMT visit may legitimize back channel negotiations
- Beijing’s rhetoric “took on a distinctly bellicose tone compared to last year”
“The PRC uses such tactics in tandem with near-daily air & naval violations of Taiwan’s ADIZ, Chinese Coast Guard patrols near Kinmen & Matsu, adjustment of civilian flight routes to fly closer to Taiwan, & balloon flights through Taiwan’s airspace to wear down Taiwan’s threat awareness & resources, forcing it to be selective in which perceived incursions it chooses to respond to.
Blurring the lines between military & civilian activities also has the effect of making it more difficult for Taiwan to determine which activities are potential threats.” @TheStudyofWar
@TheStudyofWar 👀 First reports of U.S. permanently stationing military personnel in Taiwan.
Worst kept secret—President Tsai became the first president in 40 years to acknowledge U.S. troops deployed in country.
Caveats: single unconfirmed source (UDN) & “no comments” from MND
Multiple sources reporting the permanent stationing of U.S. troops in Taiwan.
“Following the implementation of the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2023 (NDAA) in the U.S., American military advisors have begun being permanently stationed in Army amphibious bases in Kinmen & Penghu this year.
When asked by Taiwan News to comment on the report, the Ministry of National Defense (MND) stated that the content of the NDAA is aimed at assisting Taiwan in developing comprehensive training & institutionalized capabilities.
“Exchanges with foreign militaries will carried out according to annual plans, & no comments will be made on the details of such activities,” stated the ministry.
Great coverage by @keverington
Spike in PLA air activity—
Back-to-back double-digit days of Chinese incursions into Taiwan’s air defense ID zone represent the largest 2-day violation of the year.
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- Roosevelt & Lincoln carrier strike groups ordered to remain in the Middle East
- Eisenhower, Truman, & Ford sailed together in a rare multi-carrier formation
- Washington underway en route to the Indo-Pacific
- Truman deploying “later this year”
Yesterday, the U.S. Secretary of Defense “ordered the presence of two Carrier Strike Groups to remain in the region.”
On 24 August, USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN 69), USS Harry S. Truman (CVN 75), & USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN 78) sailed in a “multi-carrier formation” & conducted an ordnance transfer in the Atlantic Ocean.
The F-35C Joint Strike Fighters are the world's only 5th-generation international carrier-based aircraft and a “first-day-of-the-war fighter with the capability to dominate adversaries in the air or on the surface while surviving the most formidable threat environments.”
F-35B Squadrons are deployed and operate frequently in the Middle East, but the F-35C has additional payload and fuel capacity, extended range (due to no vertical landing capability), and is catapult-launched (which requires less gas to take off).
Incredible pics — 3x U.S. Navy aircraft carriers sail in multi-carrier formation & conduct an ordinance transfer in the Atlantic Ocean 👀
Not something you see every day. @TheCVN69 @USSHARRYSTRUMAN @CVN78_GRFord
The Ford-class aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN 78) transits the Atlantic Ocean with the Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower and the Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman (CVN 75) during an ordinance transfer, Aug. 24.
The Nimitz-class aircraft carriers USS Harry S. Truman (CVN 75), USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN 69), and the Ford-class aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN 78) are underway in the Atlantic Ocean for an ordnance transfer between the three ships and the Lewis and Clark-class dry cargo ship USNS William McLean (T-AKE 12). (Source: DVIDS)
The Nimitz-class aircraft carriers USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN 69) and USS Harry S. Truman (CVN 75), and the world’s largest aircraft carrier, USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN 78), sail in formation in the Atlantic Ocean, Aug. 24, 2024.
USS Gerald R. Ford is the flagship of the Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group. The aircraft carrier is underway in the Atlantic Ocean to further develop core unit capabilities and skills such as fuels certification and ammunition on-load during its basic phase of the optimized fleet response plan. (Source: DVIDS)
🚨 Special report — Why the Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group is the most capable in the fleet
Equipped with F-35C stealth fighters, next-gen technology, & state-of-the-art weaponry, @CVN_72 brings unrivaled capability & capacity to the Middle East.
What we (publicly) know:
On 11 July, @CVN_72 departed San Diego for a scheduled, routine Indo-Pacific deployment. Less than a month later, on 2 August, the schedule changed when the Secretary of Defense ordered the CSG to move from the Indo-Pacific to the Middle East and, on 11 August, to accelerate its transit. Ten days later, the group arrived in the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility (AOR).
But ABE is not just another CSG. It’s the most advanced, lethal, and capable in the fleet — the pinnacle of power projection — providing a combat-ready force to “protect and defend the collective maritime interests of the U.S. and its global allies and partners.”
The CSG blends and interoperates high, medium, and low-end naval and joint capabilities in a way that’s never been done before, both for offensive and defensive purposes, integrating seamlessly across military platforms, including manned and unmanned systems, conventional and unconventional, surface and subsurface, overt and covert, and more.
USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72), the flagship of Carrier Strike Group Three (CSG-3), is a 96,000-ton Nimitz-class supercarrier that spans 3 football fields in length — a floating city and mobile air base that can deliver 4.5 acres of sovereign U.S. territory anywhere in the world, at any time.
Collectively, CSG-3 consists of 6,000+ Sailors and Marines, who learned about the Middle East deployment after the ship had already left San Diego last month. “The Abraham Lincoln team pursues and achieves greatness every day,” says Capt. Pete Riebe, commanding officer.
The CSG is deployed to “maintain regional security and stability, keep sea lanes open, and to train to increase combined readiness. Along with our network of allies and partners, U.S. naval forces are indispensable to ensuring freedom of navigation and overflight, and unimpeded lawful commerce.”
Tehran appears to be allowing mediators time to pursue cease-fire talks: NYT
• By Friday, Israeli intelligence had assessed that Hezbollah and Iran had lowered the level of alertness in their rocket and missile units, according to five Israeli officials.
• Israel now believes the Iranian-led response — already apparently delayed several times — will take place at a later date.
• The officials have cautioned that their assessments are rapidly changing given the fluidity of events. Intelligence has been sparse and changes frequently, and Iran and Hezbollah are known to be constantly assessing the situation.