views
Although it will take many more attacks on refineries to create a real gasoline shortage in Russia (and even then, Belarus has available capacities), it is an effective strategy for many reasons:
1.) A gasoline shortage would be a political nightmare for Putin, because it would..
1.) A gasoline shortage would be a political nightmare for Putin, because it would..
https://twitter.com/jakluge/status/1767814255573684253
.. be felt and discussed by everyone. Gasoline prices are political, even in Russia. Average Russians are not willing to pay a price for the war.
2.) Refineries are important for the military. Of course the military will not feel shortages, but refineries are legitimate targets.
2.) Refineries are important for the military. Of course the military will not feel shortages, but refineries are legitimate targets.
3.) There are very few civilian casualties. High gas prices make people angry, but nobody will starve, freeze etc. due to the attacks.
4.) Attacks on Russian refineries don't lead to rising oil prices globally, as long as crude exports continue. The effect is felt only in Russia.
4.) Attacks on Russian refineries don't lead to rising oil prices globally, as long as crude exports continue. The effect is felt only in Russia.
5.) The damages can take several months to repair. Sanctions and drone attacks work hand in hand here, as Western parts are more difficult to obtain.
6.) Ukraine has just scratched the surface of what it can do here. Russia will try countermeasures but probably remain vulnerable.
6.) Ukraine has just scratched the surface of what it can do here. Russia will try countermeasures but probably remain vulnerable.
PS, a technicality: In the Russian case, rationing of gasoline would be more likely than really high prices (the latter are tightly regulated).
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
