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Raoul Pal Profile picture
@RaoulGMI
Mar 24 • 10 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
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What is Macro/Crypto Summer and why does it matter?

Well, macro summer has started, its the part of The Everything Code cycle where the ISM picks up (GDP growth).... 1/ Image
And that is driven by liquidity, which bottomed at the end of 2022... macro summer and fall are all about liquidity rising and is a core part of The Everything Code thesis... Image
And that, in turn, lifts tech stocks... they LOVE macro summer and fall... Image
But Bitcoin LOVES macro summer and fall even more.
Crypto summer has started and fully develops post-halving...it's all the same Everything Code cycle... Image
Which happens to be the Election Year cycle too... Image
But Macro/crypto summer is really also Alts season...and the season they leg the Dogs out... Image
And liquidity should rise all the way into the end of 2025... I dont expect an exact match here (more subdued) but who knows... Image
Using many of our Everything Code inputs, we get a forecast of global liquidity that looks like this. Ive no idea whether its China, the EU, Japan or the US that drives this or maybe a bit of all. Time will tell... Image
The work we have done on The Everything Code in Global Macro Investor (GMI) has been central to my investing strategy and got us max long tech and crypto in Dec 2022. We have forecasts out to end of 2025 for crypto and tech from this work, but obviously I won't publish them here.
But the bigger game is yet to be played out as Alt season arrives and we fully enter the Banana Zone.

The Banana Zone cometh, and it is a huge wealth-generating machine.

Patience will be rewarded.

In the meantime, don't fuck this up. #DFTU

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More from @RaoulGMI

Raoul Pal Profile picture
Feb 4
It can't be this easy, right?...right? Part 1 - Bitcoin +110% annual returns from doing nothing. Image
It can't be this easy, right?... right? Part 2 - Nasdaq +21% annual returns from doing nothing. Image
Maybe it really is this easy? BTC vs GMI Total Global Liquidity Index (global fiat debasement)... Image
Read 7 tweets
Raoul Pal Profile picture
Dec 2, 2023
I thought I'd share a new way of thinking about crypto that might help make sense of it all for you.

This first appeared in my November Global Macro Investor (GMI) monthly. I don't normally share direct work from GMI bit I think its worth it.

Enjoy.

1/ Image
Image
Image
Read 5 tweets
Raoul Pal Profile picture
Nov 25, 2023
Raoul's Easy Guide to the Business Cycle and Why it Matters:

Today:

ISM leads GDP by 3 months. ISM is around zero GDP growth currently, so GDP should be low Q4 and Q1.

This is where cyclical stocks, RTY and commodities live, and is why they are subdued. Image
ISM + 5 Months:

But our Lead indicator for ISM has been rising sharply. This is generally where the SPX lives (part cyclical, part growth) and explains the SPX strength vs Russell 2000 (RTY) or commodities... Image
ISM + 11 Months:

Using our GMI Financial Conditons Index, we can peer 11 months into the future, suggesting a strong year in 2024. This is where the growth assets of NDX and Crypto live. This is why they bottomed before everything else... Image
Read 10 tweets
Raoul Pal Profile picture
Oct 29, 2023
Crypto💘 Liquidity

1/ Image
It really loves Global M2... this is when BTC outperforms the NDX and crypto becomes the Super Massive Black Hole... Image
Our Weekly Global Liquidity Index is about to break above zero... Image
Read 6 tweets
Raoul Pal Profile picture
Oct 20, 2023
$SOL - Ive been extremely bullish all year.

It's up 171% this year and we are about to test the big inverse head and shoulders at $30.... next major resistance would likely be $50, once confirmed. 1/ Image
It has broken out vs ETH.... Image
And vs BTC... Image
Read 4 tweets
Raoul Pal Profile picture
Sep 3, 2023
Postcards from the Death of the American Dream..

(warning, these are not comfortable viewing)

Since 1965 (everyones working memory) wages have not risen in real terms. Its an endless hamster wheel of despair... Image
Made worse by the fact that asset prices keep going up. Equities have risen in real terms by 2.5% per year and has compounded in a loss of purchasing power by workers of 83% Image
Assets are no more than future deferred consumption (long-term savings), generally to pay for retirement.

Problem is that as assets got more expensive vs wages, no one managed to save anything. They will never cover the cost of living in their later years. Image
Read 15 tweets

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