Thread by @Minalami

🧵Sharing key points as I listen to IS leadership msg, with little or no insight at this point:

1/ marks 10th anniversary of its "caliphate" declaration (Ramadan of 2014, which that year fell on 29 Jun). Says despite IS was left for dead in Iraq & Syria (2017, 2019), it expanded to Africa & other places - "growing stronger & expanding" still

2/ urges IS members/militants to stay united and obey their leadership and stay true to their "bay'ah" pledge, and not be misled by lies or distortions (hint of possible divisions or disillusionment among some?)

3/Urges online supporters to also be united and obedient. Rare call on to avoid divisions and disputes, be obedient and focus on promoting official IS material, old and new, online. Also lavishes praise on them for their support

4/ Seems to suggest online supporters have contact with official IS media operatives. Expected but interesting they publicly share this. “Obey the directives of your brothers, which you get through [official] IS outlets, and may Allah protect those looking after [IS media]”

5/ Moves to give shoutouts to IS branches. Starts with Mozambique: praises branch over "recent victories and conquests", and religious outreach work. Urges them to "double your efforts". Our analysis from earlier this month on Moz. Shttps://monitoring.bbc.co.uk/product/c20528f0

6/Gives shoutout to ISCAP (DRC & Uganda), “the giants of the jungle and lions of the battle”, for their attacks on Christians & gov forces. Praises them for displacing Christians and disrupting commercial routes. Urges them to double efforts and target gatherings and gov centres

7/ Praises ISWAP (Nigeria, Lake Chad) and Sahel (Mali, Niger, Burkina) for their attacks and "implementing Sharia" wherever they go/settle, according to IS. Says it's a loss for those who stayed behind or chose to fight on opposite side, in likely dig at jihadist rivals

8/ Hails Afghanistan-focused Khorasan Province (ISKP, ISIS-K), for their attacks on "Americans, Russians, Chinese", all presumably in ref to attacks in Afghanistan", and on religious minorities, the Shia, Sikh & Hindus. Praises Pakistan branch for attacks on election targets

9/ Gives shoutout to IS's Philippines-focused "East Asia Province" branch (ISEAP). Urges them to "unify their ranks" (are they divided or dispersed?) and move their attacks from "the jungles"to urban areas (worth noting this incitement!)

10/ Hails Somalia branch, congratulating them on their "recent victories" against their rival, al-Shabab, in eastern Somalia. Urges them to move the fight to their "enemies' turf" and start targeting urban ares/cities

11/ Gives words of support and encouragement to IS affiliates in struggling branches, naming Yemen, Sinai, Libya, Tunisia and the Caucuses, urging them to not give up, sharpen their resolve, "for the winds of change are coming". Says setbacks part of trials and tribulations

12/ Congratulates "Muslims" in Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Lebanon (presumably bec these countries have sizeable Shia populations) on the IS attack in Iran in Jan, adding that the "revenge list against [the Shia] continues"

#RussiaAttack #Russia Gloats that after IS attacked Iran, it "moved to Crusader Russia", hailing the attack of 22 Mar "carried out by a group of Caliphate soldiers", again putting it in the context of IS "revenge" against enemy states/players

14/ IS seems defensive/annoyed that it needs to explain why it targeted #Russia. "We don't need to give excuses or sharia justifications". Says Russia "fought Muslims" in the past and now. Gloats that IS has been killing its soldiers in Syria and Sahel (Wagner), and will continue

15/ Gives strong & special salute to IS militants in Syria, and hails the revival of their attacks. Particularly praises attacks in the "badia" (Syria desert areas such as in Homs and Hama). Says the enemy has been dumbfounded, confused and unsure how to report/admit setbacks

16/ Does a "last not least" salute to Iraq militants, praising them for ongoing "jihad". Hints at possibility of US withdrawal from Iraq. Says whether "Shia" gov & army get support or not, IS will destroy them. Fact is, IS attacks in Iraq have drastically fallen since last year

17/ Finally turns to Gaza. Says solution for Gaza and other areas where Muslims are suffering is for Muslims to come together under single rule (meaning IS) and fight under single banner (that of IS) to be victorious and deter attacks. cont'd

18/ Refers to IS's "global campaign of attacks" in Jan - none of which struck Israel-linked targets - to say that it did its bit for Gaza, and says it seeks to do more. Makes its typical call for revenge attacks worldwide

19/ on 10th "caliphate" anniversary, IS makes new & strong call for "hijra" (migration to IS areas) & "jihad". Says lots of arenas to choose from- refers to "expansion". Singles out hijra to Africa branches, saying they've received "the best of muhajirin" (foreign fighters)

20/ Moves to subject of IS-linked prisoners, esp women in al-Hol. Vows to free or avenge them following US-backed SDF security campaign in Jan/Feb. Tells IS Syria soldiers to makes this top priority, no delay. Typical call but stronger.Only part to carry special msg from 'caliph'

21/ Ends (finally!) with a msg of defiance & threat to the US & its coalition, mocking & taunting them. Says Iraqi forces will be easy prey as soon as US pulls out of Iraq. Says US staying in Iraq is even bigger mistake & that coming battles will see IS fight US soldiers directly

22/ This packed message seeks to exploit recent IS "successes" - e.g. attacks in Iran, Russia, Mozambique - to project image of strength and to recruit, at an important time - 10 anniversary of "caliphate" and Ramadan. Group exploiting recent concerns of IS resurgence

23/ Worth adding that the 41-min audio msg was delivered, yet again, by IS's spokesman Abu Hudayfah al-Ansari. We are yet to hear from the group's new "caliph" Abu Hafs al-Qurashi, named as leader in Aug 2023. Only msg attributed to "caliph" in new address was to prisoners. END