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Richard Vereker

Apr 6, 2024 • 8 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X

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Has Russia run out of ammunition for 2 of its Self Propelled Guns? There have been no visually confirmed losses of either the 203mm 2S7 or the 152mm 2S5 Gianstat-S since December almost 100 days ago. 🧵1/n

This is the same graph but without the 3-month average. the last loss of each was on the 30 and 31st of December 2023, though there was a damaged 2S5 6 days after that. 2/n

Graph of guns (Towed & SPG) by ammunition type. There are no towed 203mm guns, but the last towed 'Giatsint' the 2A36 was back in October. These types of guns have their own ammunition type, neither was that popular on the export market. 3/n

Accurate information from Russia is not always available, but I don't think either type was being made at the start and is unlikely to have restarted. If Russia could open new ammunition production, they are more likely to prioritise their standard 152mm and 120mm types. 4/n

I don't know the accurate numbers for Russian artillery but rough estimates are 14-19 million in storage at the start, 2.5 mil made in Russia, 2 mil imported for NK and Belarusian, 18 mil used or destroyed, so this is about the time to expect types not being made to run out. 4/n

Table of data from a 🧵by @HighMarsed I know there is talk of 'barrels' Barrels are not the same as 'guns' but there are still plenty of satellite images of 100s of these weapons in storage, most still have barrels attached. So I think it is more likely to be Ammunition 5/n

@HighMarsed This is the data table of all 654 Russian Lost SPGs. and it comes from data made available by @WarSpotting There have also been no 122mm 2S23 & 2S34, in that time, but these were only in small numbers anyway. 6/6 Ends

Sorry everybody, in the time it took me to wright that 🧵Russia has been visually confirmed to have lost a 2S5, talk about timing!

ukr.warspotting.net/view/25493/142…

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More from @verekerrichard1

Richard Vereker

@verekerrichard1

Oct 18

1) There has been a notable increase of Russian T-54/55 destroyed recently as a share of total Russian Tank losses as recorded by @WarSpotting while still modist, only 4 tanks, it's still a noteworthy increase, a short 🧵

2) There have been 88 total Russian tank losses over 3 months, but of these a quarter 22 have been of Unknown Type. Therefor, of the 66 lost tanks of Known types, the 4 T-54/55s represent 6% A small share, but not negligible, as they have been up to now.

3) All 4 of the losses have been Geo located, 2 of them are in Donetsk Oblast, one in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, and I think the most recent 'Sudxha raion' is in Russia, if i'm not mistaken. It's possible that its one Russian unit that's been moved about, But I don't think so.

Read 6 tweets

Richard Vereker

@verekerrichard1

Oct 14

1) More Russian IFV/APC losses added in the last 24 hours (16) to @WarSpotting than happened all of September combined. (14)

2) I don't have any inside knowledge of Russian tactics, and 'loss analysis' always has limitations, so recognising those limitations, I'm not going to say why this is. But those that are suggesting that Russia might have stopped supporting small assaults with IFVs and instead are now doing small numbers of larger assaults, might be right.

3) One interesting thing is that of the 25 IFV/APC losses over half 13 are MT-LBs, mostly used as a rather simple APC.

Use of MT-LBs are a proportion of total losses has been increasing, Over 40% in sep (midpoint of 3 month average) again I don't know why, but interesting.

Read 4 tweets

Richard Vereker

@verekerrichard1

Oct 4

1) A 🧵on Russian tank losses. In September russian losses returned to a more normal distribution, T-80s and T-72 each make up about 1/3 of losses, most of the rest are T-62s, and T-90s stay in the 5-10% range.

2) T-90 losses are now exclusively T-90Ms, only 2 T-90As have been lost this year, the last in April. This reinforces my long held assumption that Russia has been upgrading there T-90As to T-90Ms, And probably means they are now few if any T-90As left, new T-90M production is probably back to 60-80 a year.

3) T-80 losses have not shown any big recent change, but Unmodernised T-80BV (Dark Blue) continue to become less common, and ether T-80BVM Orb 2022 or Orb 2022s of unknown (BV or BVM) modle, (yellow and light blue) together now make up over half the total.

Read 6 tweets

Richard Vereker

@verekerrichard1

Sep 26

1) Russian tank loss update, while most of our attention is on the stunning Ukraine offensive against Russia Oil refining; Russia continues to lose tank. Russia is still losing a lot of very old T-62 Tanks, but the proportion is down over the last 2 months.

2) this striking chart is perhaps the big news from this months Russi losses, it shows the ratio of Tanks to IFVs, we have gone form 2-3 IFV/APCs for each tank lost to less than half an IFV/APC to each tank lost.

3) That's because the number of IFV/APC losses, (yellow) has dropped dramatically. Transport losses however are up, and most others are about normal for this point in the month.

Read 4 tweets

Richard Vereker

@verekerrichard1

Sep 21

1) Dramatic change in the make up of Russia losses this month. A big drop in the proportion (and absotte numbers) of IFV/APC losses (Light Blue) and rise in the proportion of Truck losses (light yellow near top) also some increase in tank proportion (dark yellow at bottom)

2) Here in table format, only 6 IFV/APCs (yellow) but 37 transport (orange).

I dont know whats driving this change, but I think it's too large to be random. my first thought/theory is that it might be related to the 'point' system that Ukrainian Drone forces operate under.

3) Here is a graph format, comparing tank to IFV/APC visually confirmed losses you can see the full and dramatic change. This graph is 'mid point of 3 month average' except September 25.

Normally there are 2-3 IFV/APCs for every tank lost, now it's the other way around.

Read 4 tweets

Richard Vereker

@verekerrichard1

Aug 10

1) The big story in Russian Tank losses, Is the decline in absolute numbers, (more on that in a bit) but there is also a significant change in the types lost. (Data from @WarSpotting ) with most of the decline happening in T-80s. 🧵

2) This graph is the same data as the first graph, but without the '3 month averaging'. T-62s and T-90s look like significant increase but their numbers are stedy, T-72s have declined proportionately to the overall reduction so there share is about the same.

3) The decline has been ongoing for a long time, but June and July were paticly low.

Read 11 tweets

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