Thread by @SteB777

I have been repeatedly warning for decades that the climate and ecological crisis, could create major food shortages and threaten our civilization far earlier than predictions imply.

1/🧵theguardian.com/environment/20…

As I spelled out in this thread only 2 days ago, if extreme weather events line up around the world in any given year. Extreme rainfall in some areas, lack of rainfall in others, extreme heat in others, hurricanes, - it'd cause global food shortages.

2/threadreaderapp.com/thread/1777396…

We have already seen many regional agricultural impacts, which can be compensated, by surpluses elsewhere. But what happens, if there's a perfect storm and various impacts, cause shortages across the globe?
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As climate change progresses, this is made more and more likely. We are already seeing a huge variety of climate impacts around the globe, from wildfires, flooding, drought, intensified tropical storms, etc. What I say, is not hypothetical, it's happening now.
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There is the very real possibility, that if this extreme weather lined up in a certain way, it could massively impact global food production in a given year. Before accusing me of raising hypotheticals, let me point to what is already happening.
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As I make clear in my thread 2 days ago, this risk starts this year, with the El Nino effects, causing warming in excess of 1.5C. I am not saying it is going to happen this year, simply that there is a quantifiable risk of it occurring.
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That we have sleep walked into a potential avoidable catastrophe, by taking no meaningful action in the last 30 years, and making no proper preparations for this eventuality.

As I make clear, food shortages don't have to be absolute to have major societal impacts.
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In a free market economy, restricted supplies of food commodities, will cause hyperinflation, making food unaffordable to many, with massive potential societal political, and geo-political implications. The free market system, itself is a major liability.
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The free market system, may drive prices down in times of surplus, but conversely, it also drives up prices in times of restricted supply. We are now facing the realistic prospects of restricted food supplies, due to climate change. It is a dangerous combination.
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I agree with the wonderful @vanessa_vash's wisdom here. Potential climate related food shortages, are no longer just an African problem, and the world should never have seen it like this. Climate Justice and equity, are important dynamics.

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https://twitter.com/vanessa_vash/status/1777589533426528328

Once again, I am not trying to spread alarm. I am just pleading for realistic thinking and analysis.

That we are now planning to survive on luck, just hoping that extreme, climate change driven weather, doesn't combine in an unfortunate way, is dangerous and reckless.
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None of this danger is inevitable, and it is avoidable, if we come together, to solve this crisis cooperatively. This is the danger of the artificial competition, in the current neoliberal system, in that it inhibits cooperation, by design. We need joined up thinking.
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