When #Israel recently assassinated 13 people in Iran's diplomatic building, this was described as an act of "deterrence".
#Iran's retaliation has also been described as an attempt to "restore deterrence".
But what does "deterrence" REALLY do?
A thread 🧵
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#Palestine
#Iran's retaliation has also been described as an attempt to "restore deterrence".
But what does "deterrence" REALLY do?
A thread 🧵
1/10
#Palestine
A few years ago, I made several arguments about Israel's "deterrence" tactics:
First, acts of deterrence often DON'T prevent national security threats.
Instead, they create GREATER threats.
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First, acts of deterrence often DON'T prevent national security threats.
Instead, they create GREATER threats.
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For example, if Israel's bombing of the Iranian embassy compound was supposed to deter #Iran, then it achieved the exact OPPOSITE.
Iran's retaliation was unprecedented: launching hundreds of drones and missiles.
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Iran's retaliation was unprecedented: launching hundreds of drones and missiles.
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"Deterrence" is also based on circular logic.
On the one hand, if acts of deterrence prevent a threat, they're presented as a success.
On the other hand, if the threat isn't prevented, the claim is that MORE deterrence is needed…
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On the one hand, if acts of deterrence prevent a threat, they're presented as a success.
On the other hand, if the threat isn't prevented, the claim is that MORE deterrence is needed…
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For example, if Iran hadn't retaliated, #Israel would tell itself that Iran had been deterred.
But now that Iran has retaliated, some Israeli officials are calling to "restore deterrence" against Iran.
In this way, deterrence becomes a self-perpetuating cycle of violence.
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But now that Iran has retaliated, some Israeli officials are calling to "restore deterrence" against Iran.
In this way, deterrence becomes a self-perpetuating cycle of violence.
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Often, acts of "deterrence" may have ulterior motives.
Rather than simply trying to prevent national security threats, they may have other goals.
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Rather than simply trying to prevent national security threats, they may have other goals.
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For example, President Biden reportedly suspects that Israel is trying to drag the U.S. into a war in the Middle East.
If that's true, then Israel's bombing of the Iranian embassy compound wasn't simply an attempt to "deter Iran".
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If that's true, then Israel's bombing of the Iranian embassy compound wasn't simply an attempt to "deter Iran".
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Some also suspect that the Israeli government is trying to divert attention from its killing of tens of thousands of #Palestinians in #Gaza.
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#Palestine
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#Palestine
Others believe that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is trying to stay in power even at the cost of unleashing a regional war.
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For more details, see this critical analysis of Israel's "deterrence" tactics:
10/10 cambridge.org/core/books/abs…
10/10 cambridge.org/core/books/abs…
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