Thread by @MarkKersten

A short(ish) 🧵 on reports that Netanyahu and his government are in emergency talks over credible "information" they have received that the #ICC plans to issue warrants against senior figures in the Israeli government, including Netanyahu.

First of all, on the veracity of the information:

It's possible that it's wrong. The ICC Office of the Prosecutor is unlikely to share news of warrants unless it was imminent (1-2 days before).

But I very much doubt meetings would be held if the information was complete bunk.

The #ICC is not immune to intelligence operations and espionage - and Israel is good at those things. So too are its allies. They'll be aware of developments before they happen.

I wrote about spies at the ICC a few years back: justiceinconflict.org/2016/02/05/spi…

Why the urgency now?

Israel has likely been distracted by the ICJ cases + the quiet operations of the ICC Prosecutor in recent weeks. If so, that is a smart play by Prosecutor Khan.

Any warrants issued need to be based on exceedingly strong evidence - trial ready, really.

What will happen next?

Attacks on the Court!

Netanyahu's plan has ALWAYS been to belligerently attack the ICC and to get other states to attack the ICC to undermine any investigation. Same playbook as always, even if it makes him look guilty: justiceinconflict.org/2015/01/20/in-…

Reports say 🇮🇱 is actively lobbying Western states, incl ICC members 🇩🇪 +🇬🇧 .

Surely Netanyahu is relying on them acting against the Court. Not convinced they will, which is amazing.

With its support for the ICC in 🇺🇦, we'll have to wait to see likely double-speak from 🇺🇸

Netanyahu's long-standing attacks on the ICC won't work & may not be intended to, at least not as a matter of law.

They're likely intended to shore up the support of those who blindly oppose any independent investigation of any Israeli atrocities ever & deny 🇵🇸 human rights.

But I highly doubt that the ICC Prosecutor will care much if states do try to interfere.

The evidence against Hamas + 🇮🇱 officials is overwhelming + exceptionally well catalogued. As the Prosecutor said: if warnings aren't heeded, offenders shouldn't be surprised w ICC action.

So, will the ICC issue warrants?

If so, it will rightly be for Israeli AND Hamas figures.

What crimes will the focus be on? For 🇮🇱 officials, it seems likely to focus on blocking aid, starvation policies, or West Bank atrocities. For Hamas? Indiscriminate attacks as war crimes.

Of course, if the ICC issues warrants, nothing will happen immediately.

The Court has no police force. It can't enforce warrants.

BUT that doesn't meant they don't matter.

For one, warrants matter politically as much as legally. The world + freedom of the accused will shrink.

The reported warrants already matter to figures like US Senator Tom Cotton, whose hysterics and threats against the #ICC do exactly the opposite of what he intends: they make it look like Israeli officials *have* committed atrocities and *need* US belligerence as protection.

Other states - #ICC member-states - like 🇨🇦, 🇪🇸 and 🇧🇪 have said they will support any ICC investigations into the situation in Palestine.

The politics are shifting and arrest warrants for Hamas and Israeli leaders will have a huge political impact.

https://x.com/MarkKersten/status/1771211727604011485

As importantly, just because ICC warrants are not enforced does not mean they don't matter.

There is justice in the pursuit of justice and in the acknowledgement of atrocity.

Warrants for all sides will indicate the ICC believes victims and survivors. As it should.

We'll have to wait & see what else unfolds.

But close observers have noticed a shift in recent months: more & more formerly reluctant states + figures are coming on side for accountability in Israel & Palestine.

The #ICC is only one part of that, but an important part.

In case of interest and happy to hear your thoughts on possible #ICC action, @AdHaque110 @Alonso_GD @JaninaDill @DanyaChaikel @Heidi__Matthews @mehdirhasan @OwenJones84 @kevinjonheller