This post by @amichaic and @yuvalshany1 makes a number of important points. But it misses the mark - as many others have - on the ICC Prosecutor's request for warrants and whether & how Israel can challenge the #ICC's case under the principle of complementarity.

A short 🧵👇 First, it's worth reading what @kevinjonheller has said in response to the article here: I agree fully.

I also explained how complementarity works here, and how its rather simple tests are regularly misunderstood:

https://x.com/kevinjonheller/status/1794352874715324426

https://x.com/MarkKersten/status/1793760486607262115

In a terrible take that makes numerous easily avoidable mistakes, @TheEconomist says: "the ICC should prosecute only when states are 'unwilling or unable to do so genuinely'. Israel is a democracy with an independent judiciary."

This is legally & factually incorrect. Short 🧵👇 The ICC is a court of last resort based on the principle of complementarity. But complementarity is a two-part test:

1) Is the state actively investigating/prosecuting the same persons for the same conduct as the ICC?

2) If so, is it able & willing to do so genuinely?

A lot of folks have (understandably) criticized the #ICC Prosecutor's office for not acting on the situation in Palestine sooner.

A brief 🧵 to put the timing and duration of ICC decision-making into a bit of context. Firstly, the ICC is not known for being especially quick to act. With very few exceptions (e.g. Libya for Gaddafi), it typically takes the Prosecutor years to issue warrants.

The Prosecutor moves more quickly where high levels of cooperation is available to investigators.

New 🧵 on the additional questions around the #ICC's investigation into the situation in Palestine.

Lots of misinformation out there, so hope to clear a few things up:

✅Palestinian statehood before the ICC
✅Jurisdiction over Hamas and Israeli authorities
✅Complementarity This thread follows the one I posted yesterday, where I covered reports that Israeli authorities are holding emergency meetings over concerns that the ICC will issue warrants shortly, including against PM Netanyahu.

You can find that thread here:

https://x.com/MarkKersten/status/1781080611752493464

A short(ish) 🧵 on reports that Netanyahu and his government are in emergency talks over credible "information" they have received that the #ICC plans to issue warrants against senior figures in the Israeli government, including Netanyahu. First of all, on the veracity of the information:

It's possible that it's wrong. The ICC Office of the Prosecutor is unlikely to share news of warrants unless it was imminent (1-2 days before).

But I very much doubt meetings would be held if the information was complete bunk.

Short 🧵 in response to disappointment that the #ICJ did not order Israel to end military operations or order a ceasefire in Gaza.

This was never likely to happen, especially with the legitimate threat Hamas still poses.

But the Judges got *very* close if we read carefully 👇 How did they get close, you ask?

Let's read the provisional measures.

They include the following:

1⃣Israel must refrain from all acts under the Genocide Convention + ensure that members of its forces do as well.

2⃣ Israel must prohibit and punish any incitement to genocide.

If the #ICJ issues provisional measures - an end to military ops in Gaza, an end to expulsions, allowing food & aid in, giving access to a fact-finding mission - what happens next?

The ICJ's orders are binding, but there's no enforcement mechanism. So what's the point?

Brief 🧵 To be sure, the lack of enforcement is a real challenge.

Legally, the UN Security Council can enforce ICJ orders. But w the 🇺🇸 sitting on the Council w a veto, there's no chance that it do so will in this case. This pic from the UNSC's ceasefire vote on 9 December says it all.

Having worked w diplomats from dozens of states, I can emphatically say that we should be suspicious of any foreign affairs advice from Stephen Harper. He did our reputation💥 damage & did little to prepare Canada for this harsh new global order. #cdnpoli theglobeandmail.com/politics/artic… There is every reason to believe that the content and timing of Harper’s comments on Chinese interference are intended not to be helpful to Canadians but to bolster Pierre Poilievre’s toxic politics.

Big news from the #ICC👇🏼👇🏼👇🏼

Prosecutor reportedly seeks to open 2 war crimes cases, on child abductions (🇺🇦’s priority) & on the deliberate targeting of civilian infrastructure.

Will be interesting how close to Putin the ICC goes - & if Putin himself is targeted at this stage.

https://twitter.com/pilabuda/status/1635307128272584705

“The source said the arrest warrants could include the crime of genocide, and were expected to arrive in the “short term” if the court prosecutor’s request was approved by a pre-trial judge at the Hague-based court.” theglobeandmail.com/world/article-…

For those coming to #ISA2023, welcome to Montreal!

I called the city home until recently, so put together this 🧵 on things you can do. Hope it's helpful.

The city has tons to offer – especially beyond the trap of conference halls and Ste. Catherine’s street! MTL is a city of neighbourhoods.

Explore them!

Three I recommend are Verdun, Little Italy, & the Plateau (esp Mont Royal street). All have great, quirky bars, some of the best restaurants in Canada, and are just plain beautiful and fun.

Event on domestic investigations and prosecutions of international crimes in Ukraine, by Ukraine, featuring Ukrainians. #ASP21 🇺🇦 Sharp, smart line: “as a country at war, Ukraine doesn’t need the international community to tell us what international standards are, we need them to help us meet those standards.” #ASP21

Event on crime of aggression in 🇺🇦.

Liechtenstein’s Christian Wenaweser: it’s time to bring the jurisdiction of the crime in line w the other three core crimes under the Rome Statute.

Me: Would love to see those that neutered the crime - incl Canada - take the lead. #ASP21 Wenaweser says the UNGA is the avenue to choose to create a special tribunal on the crime of aggression for Ukraine, to circumvent issue of 🇷🇺 (and 🇧🇾) immunities. #ASP21

I was recently asked about the possible effects of the #ICC's intervention on resolving the conflict in Ukraine and de-escalating violence.

So, a few thoughts 🧵👇 First, the #ICC's investigation won't solve the war or likely even do much for peace.

Peace isn't on the table and the effects of the Court are often much more modest than people imagine.

Any suggestion otherwise is wrong and unnecessary for support of the Court.