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tern Profile picture
@1goodtern
May 2 • 16 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
🚨HOLY SHIT🚨

That's the biggest rise in covid positivity in a single week for nearly two years. 😮holy shit graph
That's a 54% leap.
I flipping told you 😮
This is going to be a very nasty wave.
flu and covid report:
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/66337699…
The UKHSA is completely asleep at the wheel.
Drunk even.
It's just crazy, I thought that there was a bit of a spike going on based on the number of people I had heard of who were ill.
But if that same % increase happens next week, and then it increases at only 1/2 the rate the following week, it'll be the biggest wave in two years.
And this is the start of term.
There are no natural breaks for another three weeks.
Shit.
This is nasty.
Just to explain this graph... this is the *previously dominant variant family* JN.1
That isn't *the number of cases*
It's the *share of cases*
When this variant dropped to 50% of cases, the new ones took over... and started this wave. Image
Some of them are growing in cases at lightning speed:
This is their fortnightly growth rates: Image
This is a lungs and heart wave.
Listen out for sirens.
Always feels a bit weird to be so precisely accurate:
The timing is like clockwork, predictable from the shape of jn.1's chart three months ago.
The only surprise to me is that it's still V70/H69- not V70/H69+.

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More from @1goodtern

tern Profile picture
May 17
Look, this is what the Cleveland Clinic say about Cryptosporidium and the immune system.
🚨"It’s important to take precautions to avoid infection with Cryptosporidium if you’re:
👉Living with HIV or AIDS.
👉Living with cancer.
👉A recent recipient of an organ or stem cell transplant.
👉On medications that suppresses your immune system."Image
Here in England there are about 100,000 people living with HIV or AIDS.
There are about 2,000,000 people living with cancer.
Read 13 tweets
tern Profile picture
May 16
"SARS-CoV-2 infection should be considered as a risk factor for Alzheimer’s disease"
The Lancet.
👇☹️
thelancet.com/journals/laneu…
And it's not "SARS-CoV-2 infection in 2020" or "your first SARS-CoV-2 infection" or "SARS-CoV-2 infection if you haven't been vaccinated", it's "SARS-CoV-2 infection".
That's the risk factor:
SARS-CoV-2 infection
Read 4 tweets
tern Profile picture
May 15
I've got some more data to add to this.
And it's a bad situation.
🚨🚨
I based the thread below on 'Lab Confirmed' Cases of Whooping Cough in England.
This evening I had the chance to look at the 'Statutory Notifications'.
It's rising much faster.
This will be a 5 tweet thread.Image
So this is Lab Confirmed cases of Whooping Cough in England over the last ten years.
On this chart, our current month has three times as many confirmations of cases as the previous highest point in the last ten years. Image
That's already bad because we haven't reached the height of the wave - that's not due for another four months. (see the thread below)
Read 18 tweets
tern Profile picture
May 15
⚠️I would like to share a very very serious concern about whooping cough.
⚠️Professor Paul Hunter of the University of East has said that there was a surge "expected based on usual seasonal patterns" this year.
🧵About those usual seasonal patterns: graph of lab confirmed whooping cough cases in last ten years in england
Look at the point at the right. That's the last week of January this year. That's when things went from normal to crazy in whooping cough world in England. graph of lab confirmed whooping cough cases in last ten years in england
The last week of January is pretty much the start of the whooping cough season in most years up to now, in terms of lab confirmations. graph of lab confirmed whooping cough cases in last ten years in england
Read 33 tweets
tern Profile picture
May 14
You may have seen stories recently about 'the rise of drug resistant superbugs'.
There was even one expert yesterday saying that they could make the covid pandemic look minor.
Well.
Here's a little thread about the timings of these superbug waves in England.
There's quite a wide range of potential drug resistant superbugs - microbes that include bacteria, fungi, protozoans, and viruses.
Let's leave the others aside for a minute, and concentrate on the bacteria.
Primarily because the UK government have been publishing some data on the number of cases of drug-resistant bacteria for the last three years.
Read 86 tweets
tern Profile picture
May 14
The UKHSA added three more weeks of data today.
Guess what new diagnoses of Cryptosporidium Parvum did in the most recent week's data.
Yep. They dropped.
Parvum waves follow Covid waves *precisely*.
Maybe it's that Covid damages the immune system making people vulnerable to Cryptosporidiosis the way that another famous virus does.
Maybe it's that english hospitals are disgusting and dirty and when more people are admitted to hospital for covid they then develop a C Parvum infection.
Read 7 tweets

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