Implications of CCP messaging on #Solar industry.🧵
First off, implications for polysilicon mfgs:
When poly was selling for $35/kg and $DQ was living large, the CCP said it thought the price was getting out of hand.
Two quarters later, the price was under $12.
First off, implications for polysilicon mfgs:
When poly was selling for $35/kg and $DQ was living large, the CCP said it thought the price was getting out of hand.
Two quarters later, the price was under $12.
2.
Now, with prices below cost (currently around $6.50/kg), the CCP has said that selling at these prices is a no-no.
This should accelerate bankruptcies of less robust companies.
Look for a return to healthy but not exorbitant margins.
I expect around $9-12/kg.
#solar
Now, with prices below cost (currently around $6.50/kg), the CCP has said that selling at these prices is a no-no.
This should accelerate bankruptcies of less robust companies.
Look for a return to healthy but not exorbitant margins.
I expect around $9-12/kg.
#solar
3.
Implications for panel manufacturers:
Even with price per watt down around $0.12, leading mfgs $CSIQ and $JKS managed to turn small profits.
From 2022 to 2023, panel prices were slashed 50%.
Revenue stayed steady for the major mfgs because shipments spiked.
Implications for panel manufacturers:
Even with price per watt down around $0.12, leading mfgs $CSIQ and $JKS managed to turn small profits.
From 2022 to 2023, panel prices were slashed 50%.
Revenue stayed steady for the major mfgs because shipments spiked.
4.
Despite the talk of crisis, solar panel shipments out of China continue to grow at impressive speed.
Despite the talk of crisis, solar panel shipments out of China continue to grow at impressive speed.
https://x.com/InfoLinkConsult/status/1787766930541306281
5.
By putting its thumb on the scale, the CCP appears to be ensuring that mfgs remain profitable. This will have a tangible impact.
One commenter complained that the CCP is acting like #OPEC. That is an excellent comparison imo.
By putting its thumb on the scale, the CCP appears to be ensuring that mfgs remain profitable. This will have a tangible impact.
One commenter complained that the CCP is acting like #OPEC. That is an excellent comparison imo.
6.
#Solar is now the cheapest energy. So the pricing pressure is entirely within the market itself, up to a certain level, where other energies become cheaper.
There is some breathing room here. So I think that margins will be protected in a coordinated effort -
#Solar is now the cheapest energy. So the pricing pressure is entirely within the market itself, up to a certain level, where other energies become cheaper.
There is some breathing room here. So I think that margins will be protected in a coordinated effort -
7.
AND even with per watt prices increasing 50% from current levels, they would still be significantly lower than they were in 2022 - which was cheaper than in 2019, when utility scale #solar became the cheapest option for new utility scale electricity. #LCOE
AND even with per watt prices increasing 50% from current levels, they would still be significantly lower than they were in 2022 - which was cheaper than in 2019, when utility scale #solar became the cheapest option for new utility scale electricity. #LCOE
8.
All in all, yesterday's stock price spikes were just a drop in the ocean, compared to what lies ahead.
The #growth narrative is incontrovertible.
Now that the #profit narrative appears secure, earnings - and mulitples - are poised to bounce much higher.
#Solar
All in all, yesterday's stock price spikes were just a drop in the ocean, compared to what lies ahead.
The #growth narrative is incontrovertible.
Now that the #profit narrative appears secure, earnings - and mulitples - are poised to bounce much higher.
#Solar
9.
Even a 2% improvement in Net Margin would represent multiple dollars in EPS on the bottom line.
IMO (still), look for #solar mfgs $CSIQ, $JKS and $DQ to rocket much higher.
🚀🚀🚀☀️☀️☀️
#Bullish
Even a 2% improvement in Net Margin would represent multiple dollars in EPS on the bottom line.
IMO (still), look for #solar mfgs $CSIQ, $JKS and $DQ to rocket much higher.
🚀🚀🚀☀️☀️☀️
#Bullish
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