Implications of CCP messaging on #Solar industry.🧵

First off, implications for polysilicon mfgs:

When poly was selling for $35/kg and $DQ was living large, the CCP said it thought the price was getting out of hand.

Two quarters later, the price was under $12. 2.

Now, with prices below cost (currently around $6.50/kg), the CCP has said that selling at these prices is a no-no.

This should accelerate bankruptcies of less robust companies.

Look for a return to healthy but not exorbitant margins.
I expect around $9-12/kg.

#solar

$CSIQ ⚡️takeaways on earnings. 2.

$CSIQ massively grows shipments, huge decline in ASPs.

Thus revenue flat. But growth incontrovertible.

Exponential growth at narrow profit margins to seize control of commodity market - just like oil titans who went before them.

Economies of scale is name of the game.

$DQ Poly market panic?!?! A quick mini🧵

Polysilicon (and all of #solar as a mfg industry) is a bullwhip-cycle commodity industry.

Right now, poly is down, making modules even cheaper - which is wild, because solar is already the cheapest utility-scale option. 2/n $DQ

This massive #LCOE superiority is going to further propel demand for panels.

At which time poly goes up again.

While poly dips towards Daqo's cost level ($7.55 total cash cost last Q), other mfgs are under water.

$CSIQ

Nerd time. 🧵

2023 EPS projection.☀️

Spoiler alert:
Modest projection gives $6.50-$7.00 EPS. $CSIQ 2/n

1Q23 EPS was $1.19 on $1.7bn revenue at 18.7% gross margin.

I've seen projection of $2.5bn revenue at 20.5% gross margin.

It would be reasonable to expect that most additional gross margin translates to net profit.

Net profit margin in 1Q was 4.94%.

Canadian Solar IPO🧵

So Canadian Solar $CSIQ is going to raise RMB 6 billion ($850 million) by selling 15% of CSI Solar.

investors.canadiansolar.com/news-releases/… 2/6

First off, market cap / valuation:

CSI Solar is probably about 80% of $CSIQ total business (other 20% is Recurrent Energy).

So Chinese market values Canadian Solar as approx $7bn company.

But what will the money be used for?