1/ The aviation component of Russia's nuclear triad is said to be at serious risk of failure due to possible corruption at Russia's United Engine Corporation. This has come to light after the crash of a Tu-160M strategic bomber on which Vladimir Putin flew in February 2024. ⬇️
2/ On 22 February 2024, Putin flew on Tu-160M no. 801. The Tu-160M is the world's largest, heaviest and fastest bomber, designed to carry nuclear-capable free-fall bombs or air-launched cruise missiles carried on a rotary launcher.
3/ Less than two months after Putin flew on it, the same aircraft crashed on take-off at the Kazan Aircraft Plant on 11 April 2024. A leaked letter reportedly from the Scientific Production Enterprise (NPP) "Temp" named after F. Korotkov describes what happened:
4/ "A fire in one of the engines, followed by its destruction with the scattering of fragments, led to damage and fire to the remaining three engines and the aircraft. Luckily, there were no casualties.
5/ "It is obvious that on 22 February 2024, the long flight of the Tu-160M aircraft No. 801 with the President and Supreme Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Armed Forces on board could have ended in a terrible tragedy that served as a trigger for worldwide nuclear Armageddon."
6/ The letter expresses "serious concerns due to the unsatisfactory technical condition of one of the main carriers of Russian nuclear weapons." An investigation found that the accident was caused by the state-owned UEC's failure to properly maintain the aircraft's NK-32 engines.
7/ According to the letter, "JSC UEC, possibly under pressure, is avoiding performing work to maintain the good technical condition of strategic bomber engines, which is confirmed by the discovery of up to 10 more faulty NK-32 engines as of 01/07/2024."
8/ It warns that this poses "a potential threat of disrupting the combat readiness of a significant part of the Tu-160M strategic bombers." The Tu-160M fleet forms part of the aviation component of Russia's nuclear triad, along with the Tupolev Tu-22M and Tu-95 bombers.
9/ The letter continues: "Perhaps due to the lack of engine calibration test data, at the request of UEC JSC, restrictions for certain flight modes were introduced into the operating manual for the aircraft, engine and electronic engine control system, …
10/ … which could lead to catastrophic consequences, as shown by the accident on 11 April 2024."
According to the VChK-OGPU Telegram channel, rather than repairing engines, UEC has instead been substituting them with units in storage and those removed from other aircraft.
11/ It's possible that this was caused by a common scam in Russia's chronically corrupt defence sector – fulfilling contracts superficially or not at all, while corrupt executives pocket the difference between the cost of the contract and the substandard actual work.
12/ The letter complains that "JSC UEC, instead of admitting its guilt, taking emergency measures to eliminate the causes of the accident and prevent something similar in the future, through administrative pressure and, possibly, financial motivation, …
13/ … has been hiding the causes and consequences of the accident from you, dear Vladimir Vladimirovich, and citizens of Russia for almost three months."
14/ Possibly as a result of the letter, VChK-OGPU reports that Russia's Presidential Administration has forced the Prosecutor General's Office, the Investigative Committee, and the Russian Ministry of Defence to open an investigation.
15/ It alleges that the company and the state-owned Rostec State Corporation have persistently escaped legal consequences for "multi-billion dollar damages" due to their protection by government figures after previous air crashes.
16/ However, the circumstances of the latest incident – with its proximity to Putin himself and its implications for Russia's nuclear triad – may have made serious consequences unavoidable for UEC. /end
@MenchOsint My guess is that the plane was either damaged while it was still on the ground or just after takeoff, in which case the incident could have been confined to a fairly small area. It could quite possibly have been a constructive loss rather than complete destruction.
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1/ Is Alexey Melnichenko's interview in The Economist a worthwhile vision of Russia's future, or a sneaky British provocation? Opinion among Russian commentators is divided, with some praising the oligarch's views and others looking for a hidden agenda. ⬇️
2/ (For part 1 of this thread, see the link below.)
3/ 'Intelligence Diary' comments that Melnichenko was approaching the question of Russia's future from a rather different perspective, but had come to the same conclusions as the author:
1/ An interview with Russian oligarch Alexey Melnichenko in The Economist is prompting strong interest among Russian commentators. Some see it as a valuable insight into elite thinking about Russia's future; others see it as a Western provocation. ⬇️
2/ Melnichenko sees five possible scenarios ahead for Russia:
– a "humiliated" Russia on the periphery of the West, which would turn to aggressive revanchism in the style of Weimar Germany;
– Russia falling into China's orbit and becoming a de facto satellite state of China;
3/ – a disintegrating Russia with struggles between regional leaders for resources and territory, and uncertain control over the nuclear arsenal;
– a "fortress Russia", closed to the outside world and in a permanently mobilised state of emergency;
1/ An ongoing 'massacre' of Russian tankers in the Sea of Azov is prompting apolexy and denunciations from Russian warbloggers. They ask what is going on, and some suspect a conspiracy: "incompetence of this level does not exist". ⬇️
2/ Contrary to some claims, these are not 'shadow fleet' tankers; they are instead small coastal and riverine vessels with capacities of a few thousand tons each. Russia appears to be using them to bring fuel into Crimea to break the Ukrainian drone blockade of the highways.
3/ However, Crimea's Black Sea ports are effectively unusable due to the constant threat of Ukrainian unmanned surface vessels (USVs). Crimea's principal Azov port, Kerch, is relatively small. Vessels have to queue up in the roadsteads outside the port, completely undefended.
1/ Heavy drones, which the Russians largely lack, are providing a significant advantage for Ukrainian infantry logistics on the battlefield. Meanwhile, says a Russian source, the Russian infantry face a "reverse evolution" of their equipment under harsh battlefield conditions. ⬇️
2/ Recently reported Ukrainian advances are likely to have been made possible by innovations in drone-supported logistics, with heavy drones now being used to transport large quantities of equipment, supplies, and weapons.
3/ Ukraine's heavy drones such as the Vampire drone bomber (called 'Baba Yaga' by the Russians) are a capability that Russia has consistently failed to replicate. Instead, Russian soldiers seek out downed Ukrainian heavy drones and repair them for reuse.
1/ Russian mobile air defence teams are stuck in queues outside gas stations and are being denied preferential access to scarce fuel, a Russian source says in a plea to a warblogger for help. The problem has arisen because the teams don't drive military-registered vehicles. ⬇️
2/ A relative of a member of a Russian mobile fire group (MOG) writes to ask the governor of the Belgorod region to intervene:
"Greetings. I'm writing to you on behalf of my father, who is currently shooting down drones with the Belgorod BARS [reserve forces] unit."
3/ "He's asking you to raise the issue of fuel supplies for mobile task forces. Considering that our new acting governor [Alexander Shuvaev] is a military man, I'm sure (or at least want to believe) that he or his aides are reading your posts and will be able to reach them…
1/ Russia's fuel crisis has developed rapidly and with increasing nationwide severity. A Russian commentary notes that the Russian government only has limited options for dealing with fuel shortages, but these are being overtaken by a fast-growing black market in fuel. ⬇️
2/ 'Federation Towers' highlights how quickly Russia has been plunged into a full-scale fuel crisis:
"The Russian fuel market held up smoothly for all four years of the Special Military Operation."
3/ "In one week in July, it suffered a blow on two fronts: gasoline prices rose by 2.1%, diesel by 3.4%, and gas stations in dozens of regions are experiencing physical shortages of fuel.