1/ The aviation component of Russia's nuclear triad is said to be at serious risk of failure due to possible corruption at Russia's United Engine Corporation. This has come to light after the crash of a Tu-160M strategic bomber on which Vladimir Putin flew in February 2024. ⬇️
2/ On 22 February 2024, Putin flew on Tu-160M no. 801. The Tu-160M is the world's largest, heaviest and fastest bomber, designed to carry nuclear-capable free-fall bombs or air-launched cruise missiles carried on a rotary launcher.
3/ Less than two months after Putin flew on it, the same aircraft crashed on take-off at the Kazan Aircraft Plant on 11 April 2024. A leaked letter reportedly from the Scientific Production Enterprise (NPP) "Temp" named after F. Korotkov describes what happened:
4/ "A fire in one of the engines, followed by its destruction with the scattering of fragments, led to damage and fire to the remaining three engines and the aircraft. Luckily, there were no casualties.
5/ "It is obvious that on 22 February 2024, the long flight of the Tu-160M aircraft No. 801 with the President and Supreme Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Armed Forces on board could have ended in a terrible tragedy that served as a trigger for worldwide nuclear Armageddon."
6/ The letter expresses "serious concerns due to the unsatisfactory technical condition of one of the main carriers of Russian nuclear weapons." An investigation found that the accident was caused by the state-owned UEC's failure to properly maintain the aircraft's NK-32 engines.
7/ According to the letter, "JSC UEC, possibly under pressure, is avoiding performing work to maintain the good technical condition of strategic bomber engines, which is confirmed by the discovery of up to 10 more faulty NK-32 engines as of 01/07/2024."
8/ It warns that this poses "a potential threat of disrupting the combat readiness of a significant part of the Tu-160M strategic bombers." The Tu-160M fleet forms part of the aviation component of Russia's nuclear triad, along with the Tupolev Tu-22M and Tu-95 bombers.
9/ The letter continues: "Perhaps due to the lack of engine calibration test data, at the request of UEC JSC, restrictions for certain flight modes were introduced into the operating manual for the aircraft, engine and electronic engine control system, …
10/ … which could lead to catastrophic consequences, as shown by the accident on 11 April 2024."
According to the VChK-OGPU Telegram channel, rather than repairing engines, UEC has instead been substituting them with units in storage and those removed from other aircraft.
11/ It's possible that this was caused by a common scam in Russia's chronically corrupt defence sector – fulfilling contracts superficially or not at all, while corrupt executives pocket the difference between the cost of the contract and the substandard actual work.
12/ The letter complains that "JSC UEC, instead of admitting its guilt, taking emergency measures to eliminate the causes of the accident and prevent something similar in the future, through administrative pressure and, possibly, financial motivation, …
13/ … has been hiding the causes and consequences of the accident from you, dear Vladimir Vladimirovich, and citizens of Russia for almost three months."
14/ Possibly as a result of the letter, VChK-OGPU reports that Russia's Presidential Administration has forced the Prosecutor General's Office, the Investigative Committee, and the Russian Ministry of Defence to open an investigation.
15/ It alleges that the company and the state-owned Rostec State Corporation have persistently escaped legal consequences for "multi-billion dollar damages" due to their protection by government figures after previous air crashes.
16/ However, the circumstances of the latest incident – with its proximity to Putin himself and its implications for Russia's nuclear triad – may have made serious consequences unavoidable for UEC. /end
@MenchOsint My guess is that the plane was either damaged while it was still on the ground or just after takeoff, in which case the incident could have been confined to a fairly small area. It could quite possibly have been a constructive loss rather than complete destruction.
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1/ The US Office of Management and Budget is circulating questionnaires to democracy-promoting organisations in eastern Europe, asking them if they are promoting DEI or climate science, opposing abortion, "combating Christian persecution", or making money for the USA. ⬇️
2/ A six-page memorandum with the questionnaire has been leaked to the independent Russian media outlet Agency. News. It appears to have been sent to all agencies that fund foreign assistance as part of a global review. Further funding depends on how the questions are answered.
3/ Four Eastern European organisations which have received currently frozen funding from the State Department’s Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor say they have received the questionnaire.
1/ In two possible indications that the Russians expect fighting in Ukraine to end soon, the Russian army has reportedly abruptly stopped recruiting convicts, and officers are said to be flocking to safe areas of Donetsk and Luhansk so that they can gain war veteran benefits. ⬇️
2/ According to the VChK-OGPU Telegram channel, "sources report that in a number of penal colonies and pretrial detention centers the recruitment of prisoners for the war was suspended. It is possible that this was done everywhere."
3/ "In some regions even those convicts who had been approved for sending to the so-called Special Military Operation zone by all authorities were "turned back".
1/ The acute exhaustion and demoralisation of the Russians fighting in eastern Ukraine comes across in a vivid description of conditions on the ground, as told by the Telegram blog of a Russian soldier titled, revealingly, 'Groundhog Day'. ⬇️
2/ 3 March 2025
"I have not been able to concentrate, sit down and write a note lately. Another hit cuts off the power, so I sit down to try to convey all the feelings of the last few days.
3/ "It is difficult to say that this is even real. The whole essence of what is happening to us, in general and to me in particular, is expressed easily and simply - a nightmare. No, there is no fear as such.
1/ Russian soldiers are being stuck with massive fines, to be paid from their own pockets, for driving military vehicles on toll roads. They complain that the Russian army is making them pay for so much themselves that they can't make any profit from fighting in Ukraine. ⬇️
2/ A Russian army driver writes to the 'Two Majors' Telegram channel:
"I am a mobilised driver, I drive a Ural [truck]."
3/ "In Moscow there is a road called Bagration Avenue, I drove along it, with black [military] licence plates, I carried out orders, I chose this road because I wanted to reduce travel time.
1/ Ukrainian drones are dominating the skies above exhausted Russian soldiers in the Donetsk region, according to a prominent Russian warblogger. As a result, Russia's progress has virtually halted in the region, even as it advances in Kursk. ⬇️
2/ 'Military Informant' highlights the likely culmination of the Russian offensive in eastern Ukraine. He contrasts the situation in the Donbas and Kursk, and warns that an orderly Ukrainian withdrawal in the latter will cause more difficulties in the former:
3/ "Against the background of significant advancement in the Kursk region, a serious slowdown in the offensive tempo of the Russian Armed Forces in Donbas has been observed for a month now.
1/ An officer of the Russian 37th Motor Rifle Regiment says its men are being "slaughtered" by their own commanders. A former Wagner mercenary who was "eager to fight for our country" is said to have "ended up as meat in the hands of his own commanders" who executed him. ⬇️
2/ 35-year-old Anatoly Aleksandrovich Savin, callsign 'Pokhula', went missing in November 2024 on the front line east of Lyman, in the Donetsk region. His regiment is a relatively new formation, created only around May 2023.
3/ According to his mother Lidiya, Savin was an ex-Wagner Group mercenary who joined the army (likely in 2023) after the Russian Ministry of Defence effectively dismantled Wagner's presence in Ukraine.