1/ The aviation component of Russia's nuclear triad is said to be at serious risk of failure due to possible corruption at Russia's United Engine Corporation. This has come to light after the crash of a Tu-160M strategic bomber on which Vladimir Putin flew in February 2024. ⬇️
2/ On 22 February 2024, Putin flew on Tu-160M no. 801. The Tu-160M is the world's largest, heaviest and fastest bomber, designed to carry nuclear-capable free-fall bombs or air-launched cruise missiles carried on a rotary launcher.
3/ Less than two months after Putin flew on it, the same aircraft crashed on take-off at the Kazan Aircraft Plant on 11 April 2024. A leaked letter reportedly from the Scientific Production Enterprise (NPP) "Temp" named after F. Korotkov describes what happened:
4/ "A fire in one of the engines, followed by its destruction with the scattering of fragments, led to damage and fire to the remaining three engines and the aircraft. Luckily, there were no casualties.
5/ "It is obvious that on 22 February 2024, the long flight of the Tu-160M aircraft No. 801 with the President and Supreme Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Armed Forces on board could have ended in a terrible tragedy that served as a trigger for worldwide nuclear Armageddon."
6/ The letter expresses "serious concerns due to the unsatisfactory technical condition of one of the main carriers of Russian nuclear weapons." An investigation found that the accident was caused by the state-owned UEC's failure to properly maintain the aircraft's NK-32 engines.
7/ According to the letter, "JSC UEC, possibly under pressure, is avoiding performing work to maintain the good technical condition of strategic bomber engines, which is confirmed by the discovery of up to 10 more faulty NK-32 engines as of 01/07/2024."
8/ It warns that this poses "a potential threat of disrupting the combat readiness of a significant part of the Tu-160M strategic bombers." The Tu-160M fleet forms part of the aviation component of Russia's nuclear triad, along with the Tupolev Tu-22M and Tu-95 bombers.
9/ The letter continues: "Perhaps due to the lack of engine calibration test data, at the request of UEC JSC, restrictions for certain flight modes were introduced into the operating manual for the aircraft, engine and electronic engine control system, …
10/ … which could lead to catastrophic consequences, as shown by the accident on 11 April 2024."
According to the VChK-OGPU Telegram channel, rather than repairing engines, UEC has instead been substituting them with units in storage and those removed from other aircraft.
11/ It's possible that this was caused by a common scam in Russia's chronically corrupt defence sector – fulfilling contracts superficially or not at all, while corrupt executives pocket the difference between the cost of the contract and the substandard actual work.
12/ The letter complains that "JSC UEC, instead of admitting its guilt, taking emergency measures to eliminate the causes of the accident and prevent something similar in the future, through administrative pressure and, possibly, financial motivation, …
13/ … has been hiding the causes and consequences of the accident from you, dear Vladimir Vladimirovich, and citizens of Russia for almost three months."
14/ Possibly as a result of the letter, VChK-OGPU reports that Russia's Presidential Administration has forced the Prosecutor General's Office, the Investigative Committee, and the Russian Ministry of Defence to open an investigation.
15/ It alleges that the company and the state-owned Rostec State Corporation have persistently escaped legal consequences for "multi-billion dollar damages" due to their protection by government figures after previous air crashes.
16/ However, the circumstances of the latest incident – with its proximity to Putin himself and its implications for Russia's nuclear triad – may have made serious consequences unavoidable for UEC. /end
@MenchOsint My guess is that the plane was either damaged while it was still on the ground or just after takeoff, in which case the incident could have been confined to a fairly small area. It could quite possibly have been a constructive loss rather than complete destruction.
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1/ The Russian army has adopted infiltration tactics to slip past Ukrainian defences, dividing platoons into a handful of men who advance as far as they can, entrench, and await reinforcements. A Russian warblogger comments on this tactic's limitations. ⬇️
2/ This change of approach since 2024 has enabled Russia to advance slowly, though still generating heavy losses along the way. 'Archangel Spetsnaz' writes:
"Indeed, assault tactics have changed dramatically."
3/ "The wide range of detection and engagement systems and means has, figuratively speaking, "brought to its knees the old tactics," whereby company/battalion-sized offensives were carried out at the frontier.
1/ Huge numbers of Russian soldiers are dying unnecessarily in Ukraine because commanders at every level are falsifying claims of success, according to Russian warbloggers. "To back up their words, they're sending people to their deaths," says one front-line soldier. ⬇️
2/ The image above is an extract from an official Russian Ministry of Defence map showing a completely fictional front line around Kupyansk in Ukraine's Kharkiv region. Commanders falsely reported having taken settlements around the city before it was regained by Ukraine.
3/ Russian commentators call this practice "taking on credit" (as in amassing credit card debt). Commanders have both financial and career motivations for making false reports of success, which are relayed all the way up to Vladimir Putin himself.
1/ A poetry reading by Russian ultra-nationalists in Krasnodar has been violently suppressed by Russian security forces, much to the dismay of their online supporters. The incident highlights how much Putin's regime fears being outflanked from the nationalist right. ⬇️
2/ Members and supporters of the National Bolshevik movement, founded by the late poet and Soviet-era dissident Eduard Limonov, were holding a regularly scheduled reading of Limonov's works in Krasnodar on 17 January when they were interrupted by a law enforcement raid.
3/ According to the 'Carefree Carpenter Z' Telegram channel, "Everything was proceeding as usual when operatives from the regional "Centre E" and the FSB, armed with automatic rifles, burst into the loft space specially rented for the event."
1/ Russia's logistical capability to threaten Greenland, 1500 miles away, is fundamentally dependent on its ability to project naval power over long distances, potentially in contested waters. However, Russian warbloggers admit that this is severely limited even in peacetime. ⬇️
2/ 'Military Informant' writes that the Russian logistics vessel MYS ZHELANIYA has "delivered important cargo to the Afrika Korps, calling at the Libyan port of Tobruk. The SPARTA IV, escorted by the large anti-submarine ship Severomorsk, continued on to the coast of Syria."
3/ However, the channel acknowledges, this operation highlights the limits of "the real capabilities of the Russian Navy to escort its merchant ships at great distances from the country's coast."
1/ Donald Trump's aggressive tactics over Greenland are causing consternation among his far-right allies in Europe. With European publics overwhelmingly against surrendering Greenland, leading European far-rightists have come out in opposition to Trump's plans. ⬇️
2/ Bloomberg reports that Trump's designs have forced his ostensible allies to reconsider their support for him. Some may fear voters turning on them for their past support of Trump, much as Pierre Poilievre suffered in Canada in 2024.
3/ 🇩🇪 Alternative for Germany co-leader Alice Weidel says that Trump has acted no differently to Vladimir Putin in his actions in Venezuela and threats against Greenland. "Trump has violated a fundamental campaign promise — namely not to interfere in other countries," she says.
1/ 30 years ago, Russian law enforcement agents started wearing masks to carry out their duties. It soon became a standard tactic to intimidate and extort those seen as opponents of the regime, and became known in Russian as a 'mask show'. ⬇️
2/ During the Soviet era, there was no need for law enforcement officers to hide their faces. They were the agents of an all-powerful state, which although corrupt had huge resources to repress crime and political dissidence.
3/ This changed in the 1990s, when the chaotic collapse of the Communist economy led to the rise of widespread and deadly gangsterism. The police came under direct threat from well-armed criminals. To deal with this, some officers began wearing masks to conceal their identities.