1/ The aviation component of Russia's nuclear triad is said to be at serious risk of failure due to possible corruption at Russia's United Engine Corporation. This has come to light after the crash of a Tu-160M strategic bomber on which Vladimir Putin flew in February 2024. ⬇️
2/ On 22 February 2024, Putin flew on Tu-160M no. 801. The Tu-160M is the world's largest, heaviest and fastest bomber, designed to carry nuclear-capable free-fall bombs or air-launched cruise missiles carried on a rotary launcher.
3/ Less than two months after Putin flew on it, the same aircraft crashed on take-off at the Kazan Aircraft Plant on 11 April 2024. A leaked letter reportedly from the Scientific Production Enterprise (NPP) "Temp" named after F. Korotkov describes what happened:
4/ "A fire in one of the engines, followed by its destruction with the scattering of fragments, led to damage and fire to the remaining three engines and the aircraft. Luckily, there were no casualties.
5/ "It is obvious that on 22 February 2024, the long flight of the Tu-160M aircraft No. 801 with the President and Supreme Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Armed Forces on board could have ended in a terrible tragedy that served as a trigger for worldwide nuclear Armageddon."
6/ The letter expresses "serious concerns due to the unsatisfactory technical condition of one of the main carriers of Russian nuclear weapons." An investigation found that the accident was caused by the state-owned UEC's failure to properly maintain the aircraft's NK-32 engines.
7/ According to the letter, "JSC UEC, possibly under pressure, is avoiding performing work to maintain the good technical condition of strategic bomber engines, which is confirmed by the discovery of up to 10 more faulty NK-32 engines as of 01/07/2024."
8/ It warns that this poses "a potential threat of disrupting the combat readiness of a significant part of the Tu-160M strategic bombers." The Tu-160M fleet forms part of the aviation component of Russia's nuclear triad, along with the Tupolev Tu-22M and Tu-95 bombers.
9/ The letter continues: "Perhaps due to the lack of engine calibration test data, at the request of UEC JSC, restrictions for certain flight modes were introduced into the operating manual for the aircraft, engine and electronic engine control system, …
10/ … which could lead to catastrophic consequences, as shown by the accident on 11 April 2024."
According to the VChK-OGPU Telegram channel, rather than repairing engines, UEC has instead been substituting them with units in storage and those removed from other aircraft.
11/ It's possible that this was caused by a common scam in Russia's chronically corrupt defence sector – fulfilling contracts superficially or not at all, while corrupt executives pocket the difference between the cost of the contract and the substandard actual work.
12/ The letter complains that "JSC UEC, instead of admitting its guilt, taking emergency measures to eliminate the causes of the accident and prevent something similar in the future, through administrative pressure and, possibly, financial motivation, …
13/ … has been hiding the causes and consequences of the accident from you, dear Vladimir Vladimirovich, and citizens of Russia for almost three months."
14/ Possibly as a result of the letter, VChK-OGPU reports that Russia's Presidential Administration has forced the Prosecutor General's Office, the Investigative Committee, and the Russian Ministry of Defence to open an investigation.
15/ It alleges that the company and the state-owned Rostec State Corporation have persistently escaped legal consequences for "multi-billion dollar damages" due to their protection by government figures after previous air crashes.
16/ However, the circumstances of the latest incident – with its proximity to Putin himself and its implications for Russia's nuclear triad – may have made serious consequences unavoidable for UEC. /end
@MenchOsint My guess is that the plane was either damaged while it was still on the ground or just after takeoff, in which case the incident could have been confined to a fairly small area. It could quite possibly have been a constructive loss rather than complete destruction.
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1/ The Iranian Republican Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy has published a map showing the 'new' shipping lanes for vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz. However, what it shows greatly increases the risk of future shipping disasters in the Persian Gulf. ⬇️
2/ The Strait of Hormuz is only 33–39 km (20-24 mi) wide at its narrowest point, but its usable width is far narrower. The shipping lanes in the middle of the Strait pass through a 9 km-wide (5 mi) stretch of the deepest water, comprising two 3 km wide lanes with a 3 km gap.
3/ Iran is currently diverting ships around Larak island to the north of the existing shipping lanes, through the so-called 'Tehran Tollbooth'. However, this has a major problem: the water between Larak and Qeshm is only 20 m deep, far too shallow for fully loaded oil tankers.
1/ This continues Russian drone developer Alexey Chadayev's analysis of the state of Russia's drone warfare; see the links below for parts 1 and 2. In this part, he assesses the crucial role of communications systems in drone control. ⬇️
1/ This continues Russian drone developer Alexey Chadayev's analysis of the state of Russia's drone warfare; see the link below for part 1. In this part, he assesses problems with unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) which have become acute since Russia lost access to Starlink. ⬇️
There's an interesting picture here: the enemy is increasing their use, while we're decreasing it. And it's not because we're physically short of them—they're sitting in warehouses by the thousands.
1/ Russian drone developer Alexey Chadayev has posted a lengthy and detailed description of what is going wrong for Russia in the drone warfare arms race, where he admits that it has fallen badly behind Ukraine, with lethal consequences for the Russian army. ⬇️
2/ Chadayev is the head of the Ushkuynik Research and Production Centre, a leading Russian drone development organisation. He is a key organiser in the 'People's Military-Industrial Complex', a loose coalition of voluntary groups which provides the army with equipment.
3/ He asks:
"1. How exactly has Ukraine regained its lost leadership in the "small sky" over the past six months?
1/ Igor 'Strelkov' Girkin reflects the views of many Russian commentators today in declaring Donald Trump's apparent climbdown over Iran to be a huge fiasco. He argues that "US authority will now be greatly undermined, and Trump's authority even more so." ⬇️
2/ News of the ceasefire in the Gulf has made its way very quickly to the special prison for jailed former security officials where Girkin has been held since January 2024. He also hasn't wasted any time in responding on his Telegram channel:
3/ "To say I'm shocked to the core—no, I'm not. In fact, deep down, I suspected the possibility of such a U-turn. The shouting and threats leading up to the behind-the-scenes agreement were too theatrical.
1/ Russia's current efforts to advance are getting nowhere due to endless swarms of Ukrainian drones, says the head of the Novorossiya Aid Coordination Centre. He suggest that instead, Russia should 'temporarily' bank its gains and go on the defensive. ⬇️
"Now it's important to take a very realistic assessment of the situation as of April 2026 and determine what we need to do in the near future to achieve Victory.
The most important factors in this situation are:"
3/ "▪️The fatigue of our troops, due to the lack of long-term rotations and many other reasons, is becoming a critical factor of strategic significance!!!
▪️The enemy achieved considerable success in destroying our air defences in February and March.