1/ The aviation component of Russia's nuclear triad is said to be at serious risk of failure due to possible corruption at Russia's United Engine Corporation. This has come to light after the crash of a Tu-160M strategic bomber on which Vladimir Putin flew in February 2024. ⬇️
2/ On 22 February 2024, Putin flew on Tu-160M no. 801. The Tu-160M is the world's largest, heaviest and fastest bomber, designed to carry nuclear-capable free-fall bombs or air-launched cruise missiles carried on a rotary launcher.
3/ Less than two months after Putin flew on it, the same aircraft crashed on take-off at the Kazan Aircraft Plant on 11 April 2024. A leaked letter reportedly from the Scientific Production Enterprise (NPP) "Temp" named after F. Korotkov describes what happened:
4/ "A fire in one of the engines, followed by its destruction with the scattering of fragments, led to damage and fire to the remaining three engines and the aircraft. Luckily, there were no casualties.
5/ "It is obvious that on 22 February 2024, the long flight of the Tu-160M aircraft No. 801 with the President and Supreme Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Armed Forces on board could have ended in a terrible tragedy that served as a trigger for worldwide nuclear Armageddon."
6/ The letter expresses "serious concerns due to the unsatisfactory technical condition of one of the main carriers of Russian nuclear weapons." An investigation found that the accident was caused by the state-owned UEC's failure to properly maintain the aircraft's NK-32 engines.
7/ According to the letter, "JSC UEC, possibly under pressure, is avoiding performing work to maintain the good technical condition of strategic bomber engines, which is confirmed by the discovery of up to 10 more faulty NK-32 engines as of 01/07/2024."
8/ It warns that this poses "a potential threat of disrupting the combat readiness of a significant part of the Tu-160M strategic bombers." The Tu-160M fleet forms part of the aviation component of Russia's nuclear triad, along with the Tupolev Tu-22M and Tu-95 bombers.
9/ The letter continues: "Perhaps due to the lack of engine calibration test data, at the request of UEC JSC, restrictions for certain flight modes were introduced into the operating manual for the aircraft, engine and electronic engine control system, …
10/ … which could lead to catastrophic consequences, as shown by the accident on 11 April 2024."
According to the VChK-OGPU Telegram channel, rather than repairing engines, UEC has instead been substituting them with units in storage and those removed from other aircraft.
11/ It's possible that this was caused by a common scam in Russia's chronically corrupt defence sector – fulfilling contracts superficially or not at all, while corrupt executives pocket the difference between the cost of the contract and the substandard actual work.
12/ The letter complains that "JSC UEC, instead of admitting its guilt, taking emergency measures to eliminate the causes of the accident and prevent something similar in the future, through administrative pressure and, possibly, financial motivation, …
13/ … has been hiding the causes and consequences of the accident from you, dear Vladimir Vladimirovich, and citizens of Russia for almost three months."
14/ Possibly as a result of the letter, VChK-OGPU reports that Russia's Presidential Administration has forced the Prosecutor General's Office, the Investigative Committee, and the Russian Ministry of Defence to open an investigation.
15/ It alleges that the company and the state-owned Rostec State Corporation have persistently escaped legal consequences for "multi-billion dollar damages" due to their protection by government figures after previous air crashes.
16/ However, the circumstances of the latest incident – with its proximity to Putin himself and its implications for Russia's nuclear triad – may have made serious consequences unavoidable for UEC. /end
@MenchOsint My guess is that the plane was either damaged while it was still on the ground or just after takeoff, in which case the incident could have been confined to a fairly small area. It could quite possibly have been a constructive loss rather than complete destruction.
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1/ The Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine face a deepening humanitarian catastrophe, with some towns not having received any water for four months. Endemic corruption and systemic mismanagement by the Russian-installed authorities is being blamed for the situation. ⬇️
2/ As previously reported, much of Russian-occupied Ukraine is facing drastic shortages of water due to a combination of destroyed infrastructure, which is particularly affecting the south, and a lack of repairs and investment elsewhere.
3/ A resident of Donetsk writes: "In Donetsk and Makiivka, everything with water is a complete disaster. Translating from officialese into Russian – there will be no water at all, survive as best you can. And this has been happening for the fourth year!!!!!"
1/ A Russian warblogger fighting in eastern Ukraine says that an unprecedented number of Ukrainian FPV drones is causing huge casualties. He claims that both sides are using chemical weapons and complains about the quality of reinforcements.
2/ The 'How I went to war. Platon Mamatov' Telegram channel highlights recent aspects of the war:
"1. Walking through the forest belts to the Dnepropetrovsk region, there are many corpses, I have never seen so many during the entire war. There are really a lot of them."
3/ "2. We are not angels either, we also use chemical weapons somewhere, but we are somewhere with them, I can't see, but when they were poisoning us, when I was running from an FPV to the dugout (knowing that it was there).
1/ More than three years into the war in Ukraine, Russian army training is still often reported to be only cursory. Soldiers are usually given only a few days of training and a single outing to the shooting range. A Russian warblogger discusses why this is. ⬇️
2/ The 'Partisan' Telegram channel comments:
"Combat training? No, we haven't heard of it.
The fourth year of the war. To put it mildly, there is no development or improvement in the combat training of troops heading to the front. Quite the opposite."
1/ Organised crime is now thriving in the Russian army as a result of its recruitment of tens of thousands of convicts. Former inmates extort, rob and torture soldiers with impunity to extract millions of rubles in pay and bonuses from them, as two recent accounts highlight. ⬇️
2/ Aleksandr Vladimirovich Efreemov of the 9th Separate Motorised Rifle Brigade (military unit 71443) told his wife that "If you don't find the money soon, they'll kill me". After arriving at a location in Ukraine, he was thrown into an open-air pit along with many other men.
3/ His wife says: “He spent all this time in a pit, and there were boys sitting there with him. They were beaten every day with clubs and rebar, and money was beaten out of them.”
1/ At least 133 Russians POWs freed from Ukrainian captivity are reported to have have died or gone missing in action after being sent back to the front lines, in violation of the Geneva Conventions. Some are said to have been executed. ⬇️
2/ As previously reported, returning POWs are being treated harshly by the Russian authorities and are often sent straight back into combat, without even a family reunion. New research by Verstka illustrates their fate.
3/ Data from the 'I Want to Live' project identifies a total of 133 people from 49 Russian regions and three occupied regions of Ukraine. They comprise a mixture of mobilised men, career military and Wagner Group mercenaries.
1/ The occupied regions of Ukraine are facing a deepening ecological and economic crisis, with critical shortages of water, rapid desertification, and the collapse of agriculture and industries across the occupied territories. Russia is doing little to resolve it. ⬇️
2/ Southern and eastern Ukraine have a naturally hot and dry summer climate that is being exacerbated by climate change. Until Soviet irrigation initiatives in the 1950s, the southern mainland of Ukraine and the interior of the Crimean peninsula were arid semi-deserts.
3/ The now-destroyed Kakhovka Reservoir alone supplied more than 12,000 km of canals in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, with reservoirs supplying Crimea and the Donbas in eastern Ukraine. Water supplies depend on infrastructure neglected or destroyed in the war.