Joni Askola Profile picture
Jul 27 8 tweets 3 min read Read on X
1/8 Dictators only understand power and china picked its side long ago: Ukraine should exercise caution in placing trust in china and consider altering its strategy, as the current appeasement approach has failed to yield the desired results. Image
2/8 Following his discussion with the chinese counterpart, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba announced that Ukraine has received a clear indication that china is actively working to bring an end to russia's war against Ukraine. Image
3/8 While it's understandable that Ukraine seeks dialogue with china given its current predicament, it feels compelled to appease china in order to limit its support for russia in the war. Nevertheless, this may not be the most effective strategy. Image
4/8 For the past two and a half years, china has consistently supported Ukraine's invasion and genocide. china is actively engaged in a conflict against Ukraine and has displayed no intention of seeking an end to the war. Therefore, china's statements hold no credibility. Image
5/8 Ukraine should have absolutely no trust in china. When it comes to china, actions speak louder than words, and talks hold little significance. Image
6/8 china is providing financial support for russia's invasion of Ukraine, assisting russia in bypassing sanctions and supplying machinery for its defense industry. Additionally, china is providing russia with geospatial intelligence to target Ukraine and its civilians. Image
7/8 china does not respond favorably to appeasement, as it only comprehends strength. Ukraine may want to reconsider its strategy and take a firmer stance against china by exposing its behavior, instead of attempting to gloss over china's actions in the hope of appeasement. Image

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More from @joni_askola

Jul 26
1/5 The story of a shaky economy and lost potential: Putin fears inflation and will do anything to avoid it. As anticipated, the russian central bank has raised its interest rate to 18% today, marking a significant increase from 7.5% in June 2023. Image
2/5 As expected, the russian Central Bank announced that it would raise the interest rate from 16% to 18%, reflecting the accelerated inflation in the russian economy due to the ongoing failed and costly invasion of Ukraine. Image
3/5 Despite the boost in growth from increased public spending, russia's economy is struggling. The challenges are expected to intensify as the scarcity of labor drives inflation, compelling the russian central bank to increase its interest rate. The rate was at 7,5% a year ago. Image
Read 5 tweets
Jul 25
1/13 Putin's dirty secrets: russia excels at bluffing, but its resources are not limitless. The extensive stocks of Soviet equipment are gradually depleting, recruitment is becoming increasingly challenging, and inflation is compelling the central bank to take drastic measures. Image
2/13 Negotiations have been a prominent topic of discussion lately, and russia has been exerting significant efforts on this front. This is not a coincidence; Putin is aware that time is gradually running out for russia. Image
3/13 Vast resources are russia's only real strength. russia is bad at conventional warfare, often resorting to sacrificing substantial numbers of men and resources to achieve results. When these resources become scarce, russia is severely limited in its capabilities. Image
Read 13 tweets
Jul 24
1/13 Ukraine's allies represent its greatest vulnerability: while russia is unable to defeat Ukraine militarily on the front, the cowardice exhibited by Ukraine's allies could potentially provide russia with an opportunity to achieve at least some of its objectives. Image
2/13 Recent talks revolve around potential negotiations and implications of a Trump victory. However, his win is uncertain, and choosing JD Vance as running mate has lowered those chances compared to earlier projections. Image
3/13 After almost two and a half years, the full-scale war has been an overwhelming conventional military debacle for russia so far. While faltering in traditional combat, russia has exhibited skill in hybrid warfare, particularly information warfare tactics. Image
Read 13 tweets
Jul 19
1/6 Attrition does not favor russia in Ukraine Image
2/6 @naalsio26 has reported updated losses in the vicinity of Avdiivka, with russia having 1449 visually confirmed losses, while Ukraine has 282 for the same area. This data underscores the significant disparity in losses between the two parties in the region. Image
3/6 RUSI's recent report also addressed the situation in Bakhmut, where Ukraine has suffered approximately 10,000 casualties, a figure several times lower than the losses sustained by russia in the same city. Image
Read 6 tweets
Jul 19
1/9 The existence of Ukraine and the future of democracy are at stake: it is imperative for Biden to step down, as a Trump presidency must be avoided at all costs. Image
2/9 There are recent rumors suggesting that Biden may soon be replaced as a candidate. It will be intriguing to see if this indeed comes to pass. Image
3/9 In general, Biden is not a bad president or person, but the harm has been done, and most Americans no longer consider him fit to be president. If the Democrats aim to defeat Trump, they will need a new candidate. Image
Read 9 tweets
Jul 18
1/15 Mearsheimer's traitorous and counterfactual strand of realism is unlikely to stand the test of time. Image
2/15 A few years ago, I attended Mearsheimer's lecture at MGIMO in Moscow and was perplexed by the applause the renowned American professor received from russian Putinist students. Over time, the reasons behind this have become clear to me. Image
3/15 Mearsheimer never holds Putin accountable for anything, consistently attributing blame to the West for everything. Image
Read 15 tweets

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