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Jul 28, 2024 10 tweets 3 min read Read on X
1/ Russian forces in southern Ukraine appear to be experiencing an increasingly desperate shortage of water. Water rations for all personnel – from soldiers in the trenches to fighter pilots – are now limited to only 1 l (36 oz) per day, as little as 8% of what they need. ⬇️ Image
2/ The Fighterbomber Telegram channel last week posted an appeal to Russian companies to supply Russian Air Force regiments with bottled water. It reports that 3,300 litres have now been donated to one airfield – enough to last a month.
3/ However, seven more regiments still need a total of 23 tonnes of water (23,000 litres / 6,000 US gallons). The huge shortfall almost certainly indicates a major breakdown in Russian logistics across the region, exacerbated by drought and the destruction of the Kahkovka Dam.
4/ The channel notes: "The standard of one litre of bottled water a day is not only for pilots. It's the same for the whole army, but now they've added pilots to it.
It's the same for those in the trenches."
5/ This quantity is far below what is needed. According to this chart (thanks @TrentTelenko), at current temperatures of 30-35°C men are likely to need between 7-13 litres per day if they are carrying out moderate to hard work. They are getting between 8-15% of this amount. Image
6/ Not surprisingly, Russian soldiers on the front line are taking increasingly desperate measures to obtain water, such as creating crude filters to try to strain out contaminants, or simply drinking untreated water directly from puddles.

7/ Given that ground water in the vicinity of trenches is likely to be contaminated with human feces, spilled fuel and decaying corpses, it's probable that Russian troops are experiencing significant rates of water-borne diseases.
8/ While this is likely to affect combat effectiveness through dehydration and disease, it's possible that Russian casualties are so high - reportedly currently 1,200 per day – that they are dying so quickly that many do not have time to get ill.

Source:
t.me/fighter_bomber…
@Trontir @LeonardC271 Thanks for the correction!

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More from @ChrisO_wiki

Jun 19
1/ Why do Russian anti-drone units fail shoot down drones? Russian drone developer Alexey Chadayev says they have numerous deficiencies, including bad communications, coordination, training, and drunkenness, that are undermining Russia's drone defences. ⬇️
2/ Chadayev writes on his Telegram channel:

"You can surround yourself with all sorts of equipment – radars, machine guns, state-of-the-art interceptors – and still miss an incoming aircraft simply because of a problem with the ‘padding between the steering wheel and the seat’.
3/ "– When mobile fire teams are afraid to shoot down drones (what if there's another one after them? What if it crashes somewhere wrong and gets called in?).

– When observers on duty are asleep or even drinking at their posts.
Read 16 tweets
Jun 19
1/ Russian warbloggers are celebrating one piece of collateral damage from yesterday's drone attack in Moscow – a shot-down Ukrainian drone which set the huge Sadovod market on fire. Their comments highlight ingrained Russian anti-immigrant sentiment. ⬇️
2/ Ukraine's attack targeted the oil refinery in Kapotnya, south-east of central Moscow. The surrounding area is heavily polluted and is one of the cheapest areas in Moscow in terms of housing costs. This has encouraged large numbers of immigrants to settle there.
3/ The nearby Sadovod market, established in 1997, is the largest wholesale and retail centre in the whole of Russia, covering an area of more than 40 hectares. It contains around 8,000 shops and attracts over 36 million customers annually, many coming from abroad. Image
Read 22 tweets
Jun 19
1/ In the aftermath of yesterday's Ukrainian attack on Moscow, many Russian warbloggers are calling for Russia to "start fighting for real" and are blaming the Kremlin for not prosecuting the war with sufficient ferocity. One warblogger explains why this is a fantasy. ⬇️ Image
2/ Roman Yuneman writes:

"In the wake of today's attack on Moscow, I'm again seeing many comments along the lines of "well, are we going to endure this again?", "when are we going to start a real war?", "why are we showing them any mercy?" and so on."
3/ "It's a rather convenient myth that Russia could immediately launch a devastating response, but we're simply not doing so out of nobility or some other notion held by our leadership. This is a half-truth.
Read 12 tweets
Jun 19
1/ How did Ukraine strike Moscow yesterday? A Russian commentary provides a useful overview of the munitions that were used in the attack on the Moscow oil refinery. ⬇️
2/ "What drones were heading to Moscow?

To strike the Russian capital, the enemy deployed a wide range of long-range fixed-wing UAVs. Ukrainian public groups report that these included, in particular, the AN-196 "Lyutyi," FP-1, "Bars," and "Bobr" drones.
3/ "AN-196 "Lyutyi". A long-range fixed-wing kamikaze drone, developed by the Antonov Design Bureau and manufactured by Ukroboronprom. It is constructed using an integrated twin-boom design with a pusher propeller and a fiberglass body.Image
Read 11 tweets
Jun 18
1/ Crimea is falling into a critical situation, says Igor 'Strelkov' Girkin, while in the war as a whole, Russia is "very close to the line beyond which lies military defeat". He lambasts the Kremlin for "lethargy" and living in fantasy on the "Planet of the Pink Ponies". ⬇️ Edited photo of Igor Girkin holding a plush pink pony
2/ Writing to a friend from his jail, Girkin comments on Ukraine's drone offensive:

"– The situation in Crimea. It is grave now, but promises to become critical in just a few weeks if the enemy continues its strategic air offensive against it at an increasing pace.
3/ "Naturally, this is not just a coincidence - the enemy has far-reaching strategic plans in this direction and is preparing to implement them, increasingly disrupting Crimea's communications with Northern Taurida [i.e. the southern Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions]…
Read 12 tweets
Jun 18
1/ Much worse is to come in Moscow, warns Russian warblogger 'Intelligence Diary'. An AI analysis shows that the city is full of strategic targets that Ukraine may try to hit as its drone offensive increases in scale and scope. ⬇️
2/ 'Intelligence Diary' writes:

"Drones have struck the Moscow oil refinery in Kapotnya for the third time since May. The question isn't whether the attacks will continue, but what will happen next."
3/ "Moscow and the surrounding region are the country's largest industrial region. High-tech production facilities are concentrated here, protected by air defences—things Russia can't afford to lose: energy, rocket science, and the defence industry.
Read 12 tweets

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