1/ Russian forces in southern Ukraine appear to be experiencing an increasingly desperate shortage of water. Water rations for all personnel – from soldiers in the trenches to fighter pilots – are now limited to only 1 l (36 oz) per day, as little as 8% of what they need. ⬇️
2/ The Fighterbomber Telegram channel last week posted an appeal to Russian companies to supply Russian Air Force regiments with bottled water. It reports that 3,300 litres have now been donated to one airfield – enough to last a month.
3/ However, seven more regiments still need a total of 23 tonnes of water (23,000 litres / 6,000 US gallons). The huge shortfall almost certainly indicates a major breakdown in Russian logistics across the region, exacerbated by drought and the destruction of the Kahkovka Dam.
4/ The channel notes: "The standard of one litre of bottled water a day is not only for pilots. It's the same for the whole army, but now they've added pilots to it.
It's the same for those in the trenches."
5/ This quantity is far below what is needed. According to this chart (thanks @TrentTelenko), at current temperatures of 30-35°C men are likely to need between 7-13 litres per day if they are carrying out moderate to hard work. They are getting between 8-15% of this amount.
6/ Not surprisingly, Russian soldiers on the front line are taking increasingly desperate measures to obtain water, such as creating crude filters to try to strain out contaminants, or simply drinking untreated water directly from puddles.
7/ Given that ground water in the vicinity of trenches is likely to be contaminated with human feces, spilled fuel and decaying corpses, it's probable that Russian troops are experiencing significant rates of water-borne diseases.
8/ While this is likely to affect combat effectiveness through dehydration and disease, it's possible that Russian casualties are so high - reportedly currently 1,200 per day – that they are dying so quickly that many do not have time to get ill.
1/ Russian warbloggers are pronouncing themselves highly satisfied with the outcome of Friday's summit. They praise it as "perfect" and look forward to a future in which the world is carved up between the US, Russia, China and India. ⬇️
2/ AGDChan is effusive, comparing Putin to Tsar Alexander III, who redefined the European security environment in the 19th century with the Franco-Russian alliance that brought Russia into the First World War 20 years after his death:
3/ “I did not count on such a good result... Well, I congratulate all of us on the perfect summit. It was grandiose. To win everything and lose nothing, only Alexander III could do that. It is impossible to imagine how difficult it was, almost impossible for Putin. But he did it.
1/ The few hundred surviving residents of the largely destroyed Ukrainian town of Avdiivka, captured by Russia in February 2024, are finding that life under Russian rule offers few comforts. They say they are facing "sabotage and abuse". ⬇️ ⬇️
2/ Prior to the war, Avdiivka, in the Donetsk region, had a population of about 31,000 people. Only 914 inhabitants were reported to still be remaining shortly before it fell to Russian forces. Most are likely to be old people and pro-Russian sympathisers who did not want to leave.
3/ A private Telegram channel, 'Avdiivka Rollcall', complains about the miserable conditions that the inhabitants are enduring now that Russia is in control. Perhaps not surprisingly, few of the promised benefits have arrived, despite propaganda claims to the contrary:
1/ Even as Vladimir Putin appears to be envisaging the war in Ukraine continuing indefinitely, Russian soldiers have had enough. An online poll suggests that many of the soldiers on the front line do not want to fight on to a decisive Russian victory. ⬇️
2/ The outspokenly pro-war 'Southern Front' Telegram channel has recently asked its readers: "Would you like the war to end soon, without the complete defeat of the Kyiv junta?" The results are perhaps not what was expected:
1/ Russia's police state is running out of police. Low salaries and poor working conditions have prompted so many to leave for better-paid army or war industry jobs that basic police services are falling apart and educational requirements for new recruits are being eliminated. ⬇️
2/ Russia's law enforcement agencies, which come under the Interior Ministry, have been experiencing an increasingly severe manpower crisis. In some regions, the police are as much as 50% under strength. Many Russian warbloggers have been discussing the reasons for the crisis.
3/ This has been prompted by a report from the Ural Mash Telegram channel which has aroused outrage in Russia. Yekaterinburg police failed to detain an alleged fraudster who was accused of stealing a million rubles ($12,500), because no police were available to make an arrest:
1/ Russia's recent creation of a salient north of Pokrovsk has been met with dismay by the Ukrainians, but with a surprising degree of caution from Russian warbloggers. They caution that it's an extended meat assault with an uncertain chance of success. ⬇️
2/ Roman Saponkov writes:
"Given the successes near Pokrovsk, I would still recommend waiting a little longer. As it turned out, reserves were withdrawn from there to another important direction."
3/ "But if nothing happens, it is a very good sign that they have learned to operate in conditions of drone warfare and a positional stalemate."
1/ Russian commanders are able to commit crimes with impunity, according to a Russian commentator, because they can send witnesses to their deaths, obstruct investigators, and exploit the relative powerlessness of investigative bodies. ⬇️
2/ Notorious cases such as the killing of two drone pilots (pictured above) by their commander after denouncing him for dealing drugs have gone unpunished. Russian warblogger Anastasia Kashevarova explains why criminal commanders are able to evade military justice:
3/ "Problems with inspections at the front: inaccessibility of the front line for the supervisory authorities, failure of the command to comply with the orders of the supervisory authorities, lack of authority of the supervisory authorities,…