1/ Russian forces in southern Ukraine appear to be experiencing an increasingly desperate shortage of water. Water rations for all personnel – from soldiers in the trenches to fighter pilots – are now limited to only 1 l (36 oz) per day, as little as 8% of what they need. ⬇️
2/ The Fighterbomber Telegram channel last week posted an appeal to Russian companies to supply Russian Air Force regiments with bottled water. It reports that 3,300 litres have now been donated to one airfield – enough to last a month.
3/ However, seven more regiments still need a total of 23 tonnes of water (23,000 litres / 6,000 US gallons). The huge shortfall almost certainly indicates a major breakdown in Russian logistics across the region, exacerbated by drought and the destruction of the Kahkovka Dam.
4/ The channel notes: "The standard of one litre of bottled water a day is not only for pilots. It's the same for the whole army, but now they've added pilots to it.
It's the same for those in the trenches."
5/ This quantity is far below what is needed. According to this chart (thanks @TrentTelenko), at current temperatures of 30-35°C men are likely to need between 7-13 litres per day if they are carrying out moderate to hard work. They are getting between 8-15% of this amount.
6/ Not surprisingly, Russian soldiers on the front line are taking increasingly desperate measures to obtain water, such as creating crude filters to try to strain out contaminants, or simply drinking untreated water directly from puddles.
7/ Given that ground water in the vicinity of trenches is likely to be contaminated with human feces, spilled fuel and decaying corpses, it's probable that Russian troops are experiencing significant rates of water-borne diseases.
8/ While this is likely to affect combat effectiveness through dehydration and disease, it's possible that Russian casualties are so high - reportedly currently 1,200 per day – that they are dying so quickly that many do not have time to get ill.
1/ A shadow war is being fought over the Russian army's access to Starlink. The Russians face a constant battle with Starlink itself and Ukrainian hackers deactivating their terminals, and obstruction from the Russian customs service holding up grey imports of Starlink devices.⬇️
2/ Starlink is banned from being exported to Russia, but can be obtained unofficially through grey imports from Central Asia and China. Most Starlink terminals used by Russian forces are obtained by volunteers and shipped across Russia's southern land borders.
3/ However, they are vulnerable to disruption by Starlink itself, which periodically disables terminals located in Russian-held territory, they are targeted by hackers, and the very slow and cumbersome Russian customs process holds up imports for long periods.
1/ When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, the town of Irpin, just west of Kyiv, was the closest that Russia reached to the capital. Its soldiers targeted Christian facilities in the town, destroying buildings and burning Ukrainian-language Bibles in the street. ⬇️
2/ One of the buildings targeted by the Russians was the Field Ministries Training Centre of @MissionEurasia, an international Christian organisation based in Wheaton, Illinois. The group trains missionaries throughout the former Soviet Union and provides humanitarian aid.
3/ After the Russian army reached Irpin on 6 March 2022, the Mission Eurasia training centre was reportedly taken over by Russian special forces, who used it as a barracks and stacked Bibles to barricade windows.
1/ 790 Russian soldiers from a single unit have died at Pokrovsk, according to a Russian combat medic, with another 900 having deserted according to leaked figures. Another soldier from the same unit says that losses are running at 80-90%. ⬇️
2/ The unnamed medic says that she is serving with the 39th Separate Guards Motorised Rifle Brigade (military unit 35390) at Pokrovsk. She describes how she was on the front line with "young guys" aged 19 or 20:
3/ "They were running around, and we had dugouts, I think. And I say No, no, fuck that. They ran, in short, into a Ukrainian minefield and it just tore them apart. Well, it's not like they were 200, dead, none of them died. Well, they were just blown up really badly.
1/ How does a false report that Kupyansk has been captured by Russia come to be delivered on camera to Vladimir Putin? A Russian warblogger blames a military reporting process that prizes low-value metrics, rewards blind optimism, and eliminates nuance. ⬇️
"The transfer of operational information from the bottom up in the Russian Ministry of Defence and the Russian Armed Forces is accompanied by a consistent transformation of the initial data as it moves up the chain of command."
3/ "This process is not a system, but an established practice and is based on stable semantic and organisational mechanisms.
At the level of a motorised rifle/airborne/assault platoon, initial observations are recorded in formulations that imply the completion of the action.
1/ A sign of how things are now on the Russian front lines: Russian volunteers declare success after raising enough money to buy a truckload of body bags. ⬇️
2/ From the 'Good staff' Telegram channel:
"Our next item to collect is body bags for our fallen comrades.
As hard as it is for us, and it's always hard for me to write about it, the guys have an urgent need for them."
3/ "It would be great to buy 1,000 of them. They're giving us that amount at 171 rubles each...
Friends, remember we started a fundraiser for bags for our fallen comrades.
We managed to collect and purchase 500 bags. The bags were purchased and delivered to the guys.
1/ Ukraine's audacious attack today on a Russian submarine at anchor in Novorossiysk has prompted anger and derision from Russian warbloggers. One complains: "I don't have the strength to comment on this anal fucking anymore." ⬇️
2/ Anatoly Shariy comments that the attack on the submarine Varshavyanka is "totally mindblowing." "Is Novorossiysk missing a submarine?" he asks sarcastically.
'Military Informant' comments gloomily that the damage is likely to be severe:
3/ "It appears the unmanned surface vehicle (USV) [sic, actually an unmanned underwater vehicle, UUV] struck near the Varshavyanka's stern, where the vertical and aft horizontal rudders, as well as the propeller, are located."