1/ Russian forces in southern Ukraine appear to be experiencing an increasingly desperate shortage of water. Water rations for all personnel – from soldiers in the trenches to fighter pilots – are now limited to only 1 l (36 oz) per day, as little as 8% of what they need. ⬇️
2/ The Fighterbomber Telegram channel last week posted an appeal to Russian companies to supply Russian Air Force regiments with bottled water. It reports that 3,300 litres have now been donated to one airfield – enough to last a month.
3/ However, seven more regiments still need a total of 23 tonnes of water (23,000 litres / 6,000 US gallons). The huge shortfall almost certainly indicates a major breakdown in Russian logistics across the region, exacerbated by drought and the destruction of the Kahkovka Dam.
4/ The channel notes: "The standard of one litre of bottled water a day is not only for pilots. It's the same for the whole army, but now they've added pilots to it.
It's the same for those in the trenches."
5/ This quantity is far below what is needed. According to this chart (thanks @TrentTelenko), at current temperatures of 30-35°C men are likely to need between 7-13 litres per day if they are carrying out moderate to hard work. They are getting between 8-15% of this amount.
6/ Not surprisingly, Russian soldiers on the front line are taking increasingly desperate measures to obtain water, such as creating crude filters to try to strain out contaminants, or simply drinking untreated water directly from puddles.
7/ Given that ground water in the vicinity of trenches is likely to be contaminated with human feces, spilled fuel and decaying corpses, it's probable that Russian troops are experiencing significant rates of water-borne diseases.
8/ While this is likely to affect combat effectiveness through dehydration and disease, it's possible that Russian casualties are so high - reportedly currently 1,200 per day – that they are dying so quickly that many do not have time to get ill.
1/ Sevastopol is effectively under siege from Ukrainian drones, prompting some Russians to make comparisons with the sieges of 1855 and 1942. Others compare it to J.R.R. Tolkien's Minas Tirith. However, unity is lacking among the inhabitants, says a Russian warblogger. ⬇️
2/ 'Near the War' describes a recent visit to Sevastopol:
"I confess, I thought several times before driving from Donetsk to Sevastopol. Military acquaintances had long warned me that the enemy might attempt to blockade the Crimean Peninsula."
3/ "And since early May, the R-280 "Novorossiya" highway has been under attack by Ukrainian Hornet drones.On the way to Sevastopol, we saw the aftermath of these artificially intelligent hornets' hunt:…
1/ Former Roscosmos CEO and current Russian Senator Dmitry Rogizin has a novel suggestion for deterring Western countries from seizing 'shadow fleet' tankers. He advocates turning them into giant bombs by rigging them to explode if they're captured. ⬇️
2/ Commenting on the British seizure of the Russian shadow fleet tanker SMYRTOS at the weekend, Rogizin – like many other Russian commentators – likens it to an act of piracy. He suggests:
3/ "I believe we should mine the tankers we use. Initiation should occur when appropriate commands are received or when a tanker deviates from its route and is forced to enter a foreign port.
1/ Russian warbloggers have rushed to disclaim blame for the attack on the historic Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra. They claim the Ukrainians did it themselves, argue that the church isn't sacred to the Ukrainians, and say Ukraine just wants Russia to look bad. ⬇️
2/ Damage, what damage?, asks Andrey Medvedev, claiming that the whole thing was faked for the cameras:
"There's no need to restore anything in general. There's no damage. It's just a vivid night picture. Which suggests a deliberate arson for the sake of a photo."
3/ Lev Vershinin says the church was a legitimate military target:
"My busy schedule prevented me from commenting on the strikes on Kyiv this morning, and thank God for that, because I might have said something stupid in the heat of the moment."
1/ Iran has reportedly assessed that Donald Trump is "mentally incompetent" and has incorporated psychologists into its negotiating team to adapt the wording of the proposed agreement "as if the recipient were a [mental] patient ... whose capacity is limited." ⬇️
2/ The Russian 'Political Report' says that "Iranian authorities have included leading psychologists in the negotiating team to review drafts of all messages before sending them to Trump."
3/ "This is not a supplementary measure, but a direct consequence of an internal assessment that the American president is mentally incompetent, whose reactions cannot be predicted by conventional diplomatic methods.
1/ The news at the weekend that the British Royal Marines have seized a Russian shadow fleet tanker in the English Channel has aroused anger and expressions of shame from Russian warbloggers. They demand that the Russian government should take action. ⬇️
2/ 'Alex Parker Returns' characterises the seizure as "Captain Price landing on a tanker of the Russian shadow fleet. I remind you that you can get revenge on the Brit who is causing trouble by voting for United Russia and rallying more strongly around the president. Be good!"
3/ 'Novorossiya militia reports' declares:
"The British have openly entered into war with Russia, no longer hiding behind either the "law" or their proxies."
1/ Russian commanders routinely make false claims to have captured territory, in order to win awards and personal bonuses. However, the army is reportedly stepping up efforts to uncover instances of "painting over" the map of the front line in Ukraine. ⬇️
2/ Russian warblogger Vladimir Romanov highlights how the practice is causing mass casualties among Russian soldiers, with some commanders maintaining two parallel maps – one of the true line of contact, and a more flattering 'painted over' version to show to their superiors.
3/ "Returning to the paint-overs, the higher-ups periodically conduct compliance checks on the personnel data.
In some places (like in the Kupyansk sector), this is purely formal.