Trent Telenko Profile picture
Aug 5, 2024 14 tweets 5 min read Read on X
It looks like the Russian railway's western cassette roller bearing wear out & capability collapse I've said was coming for a couple of years...

...is now arriving.

Assuming this report is true⬇️

1/
In simple terms, we are in August 2024 after this bearing wear out prediction for February 2024.⬇️

This is something I've been expecting to see since September 2022.⬇️

The life of installed 5 million km Western roller bearings are ending for more and more Russian locomotives and rolling stock.

The Russian pattern of the most neglected...

2/
...track meeting the most neglected engines & rolling stock will cause more & more derailments starting in the arctic, then the Far East.

Then derailments in the Caucuses, moving towards Moscow/St Petersburg.

Finally, we would see derailments of the repair trains.

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In Oct 2022 Russia had 10,000 freight cars out of service, with 200,000 more railway freight cars at risk of bearing wear out after a few of years of Western sanctions

4/
Every January the Russian government owned railway monopoly cycles a large fraction of the engines offline for periodic maintenance and it takes 2-to-3 months to recover full capacity.

Look what happened for the 2024 bottom red trend line.⬇️ (H/T @Prune602)

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The count down to Russian railway collapse from a lack of replacement Western railway cassette bearings in railway car trucks was straight forward math, unless you believe in "Russia Strong ™️" or "Escalation Management™️" ideological delusions.🙄

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If you believe in either delusion, then no amount of empirical evidence has any meaning.

The rejection of the empirical is the antecedent condition for either delusion.

If you accept empirical evidence, you cannot become invested in either

7/
..."Russia Strong™️" or "Escalation Management™️".

The empirical view is rooted in ground truths, like sun rotted tires, & the delusional is rooted in wishful thinking.

And these twin delusions mean the West is failing to plan for a Russian railway collapse.


8/Image
Western governments failing to plan for Russian transportation collapse & defeat, so as to manage the transition to a stable post-war world, will put post-Putin Russia on the slippery slope to the hell

9/
...of becoming a continent spanning Lebanese Civil War with loose bugs, loose nukes & novachuk gas equipped sprayer drones.

It may not be possible to avoid this Russian meltdown collapse, but failing to plan for the possibility, is planning to fail when it arrives.

10/
The economic repercussions of Russian energy & food suddenly just falling out the world economy from this pending "railway transportation collapse apocalypse" beggars the imagination.

Even @PeterZeihan pales at the thought.

11/
Western national security and economic policy makers ought to be putting together crisis teams to evaluate the implications for both the world economy and for obtaining an armistice.

Using access to railway cassette bearings as a leaver...

12/
...to obtain the two most important concessions -- Pre-2014 Ukrainian borders & getting back Ukraine's kidnapped populations -- that will make a lasting cessation of hostilities possible.

But they won't.

They believe in "Russia Strong™️" or "Escalation Management™️".

13/13 End

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More from @TrentTelenko

Oct 3
I've made a point about the Russian killed to wounded ratios a lot.

This is off scale:

"The AFU 7th Rapid Reaction Corps of Ukraine's Air Assault Forces published some stats. In August, Russia suffered 928 KIA and 528 WIA, i.e. 1.76:1,

1/3
and in September, 1,202 KIA and 649 WIA, i.e. 1.85:1.

These numbers strongly exceed any previous campaigns dating back to the Crimean War, and do not include non-combat deaths due to disease or exposure."

2/3
Late 20th Century combat saw one dead for every four wounded.

Russia is suffering between one and 3/4 to one to something like one and 4/5ths to one killed to wounded at Povrovsk.

This is without historical precedence.

3/3
Read 4 tweets
Oct 2
Gosh, remember all those 2023 US Navalist accounts that denied - DENIED, I tell you - that drones from containerships would ever, ever, be a threat and that I personally was delusional for saying so publicly.

Who looks delusional now 😱⬇️

1/
One in every five US Naval vessels are defenseless to Chinese drones, surprise launched from Chinese merchant & fishing vessels, because the
every CNO since 1989 didn't want USN logistical officers to get a captaincy and compete for flag ranks.

2/
Instead of dealing with reality, the USN flags send out minions on X to say "de-lu-lu" things like this⬇️

Because the USN Flags from the Aviation, Surface and Sub communities don't want to have logistical officers get flag ranks and spotlight their professional delusions🤮🤮
3/3 Image
Read 4 tweets
Oct 1
Phalanx was replaced by the SeaRAM, AKA RIM-116 Rolling Airframe Missile, on almost all new US combatants for the last ~15 years.

The SeaRAM Wiki states:

"The U.S. Navy plans to purchase a total of about 1,600 RAMs and 115 launchers to equip 74 ships.

1/3
The missile is currently active aboard Gerald R. Ford-class aircraft carriers, Nimitz-class aircraft carriers, Wasp-class amphibious assault ships, America-class amphibious assault ships, San Antonio-class amphibious transport dock ships,
2/3
Whidbey Island-class dock landing ships, Harpers Ferry-class dock landing ships, and littoral combat ships (LCS).[6]"

This was a US Navy procurement disaster in the age of drones.

3/3
Read 4 tweets
Oct 1
There are good reasons Russia is now looking to purchase gasoline from abroad to replace what they can no longer produce and deliver internally.

Russia is in the middle of a refinery damage & overuse failure cascade🧵

1/
Let us start with basics.

This was the pre-Russo-Ukrainian War Russian pipeline infrastructure Russian refineries were attached too.

2/
This is another view of the same infrastructure courtesy of the @AndreasSteno account.

3/
Read 10 tweets
Oct 1
"Western Experts" on X who claim drones are a "Ukraine War unique fad" are complete fools⬇️

"Among the sensitive targets of September 2025:
• 1,895 ‼️ enemy wings of the Orlan, Zala, SuperCam, Lancet types, Molniya kamikaze wing, Shahed, Gerbera.

1/3
• 455 enemy pilot launch points and 738 crew antenna units.
• 150 mobile EW systems and 9 self-propelled EW systems.
• 2,124 self-propelled vehicles (armor, logistics, rocket artillery, auto-moto vehicles, MLRS).

2/3
• 394 cannons and howitzers.
• and much more weaponry, assets, depots, shelters, etc."

The #1 counter-battery weapon on the 2025 battlefield isn't ballistic or rocket artillery.

It is the drone.

3/3
Read 4 tweets
Sep 28
The Russian Legioner armored vehicle is an interesting reinvention of the 1940's Red Army BTR-152 or US M3 Scout car.

It says a great deal about the defense industrial infrastructure limitations of the Russian Federation.

1/ Image
The three 6x6 BTR-152 photos and drawings and one 4x4 M3 scout car photo will give you an idea of what is available to the 2025 Russian defense industrial base.

2/2 Image
Image
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H/T to Dylan Malyasov of Defense Blog.

defence-blog.com/russia-develop…
Read 4 tweets

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