...track meeting the most neglected engines & rolling stock will cause more & more derailments starting in the arctic, then the Far East.
Then derailments in the Caucuses, moving towards Moscow/St Petersburg.
Finally, we would see derailments of the repair trains.
3/
In Oct 2022 Russia had 10,000 freight cars out of service, with 200,000 more railway freight cars at risk of bearing wear out after a few of years of Western sanctions
Every January the Russian government owned railway monopoly cycles a large fraction of the engines offline for periodic maintenance and it takes 2-to-3 months to recover full capacity.
Look what happened for the 2024 bottom red trend line.⬇️ (H/T @Prune602)
5/
The count down to Russian railway collapse from a lack of replacement Western railway cassette bearings in railway car trucks was straight forward math, unless you believe in "Russia Strong ™️" or "Escalation Management™️" ideological delusions.🙄
6/
If you believe in either delusion, then no amount of empirical evidence has any meaning.
The rejection of the empirical is the antecedent condition for either delusion.
If you accept empirical evidence, you cannot become invested in either
7/
..."Russia Strong™️" or "Escalation Management™️".
The empirical view is rooted in ground truths, like sun rotted tires, & the delusional is rooted in wishful thinking.
And these twin delusions mean the West is failing to plan for a Russian railway collapse.
Western governments failing to plan for Russian transportation collapse & defeat, so as to manage the transition to a stable post-war world, will put post-Putin Russia on the slippery slope to the hell
9/
...of becoming a continent spanning Lebanese Civil War with loose bugs, loose nukes & novachuk gas equipped sprayer drones.
It may not be possible to avoid this Russian meltdown collapse, but failing to plan for the possibility, is planning to fail when it arrives.
10/
The economic repercussions of Russian energy & food suddenly just falling out the world economy from this pending "railway transportation collapse apocalypse" beggars the imagination.
Even @PeterZeihan pales at the thought.
11/
Western national security and economic policy makers ought to be putting together crisis teams to evaluate the implications for both the world economy and for obtaining an armistice.
Using access to railway cassette bearings as a leaver...
12/
...to obtain the two most important concessions -- Pre-2014 Ukrainian borders & getting back Ukraine's kidnapped populations -- that will make a lasting cessation of hostilities possible.
But they won't.
They believe in "Russia Strong™️" or "Escalation Management™️".
13/13 End
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...has been in place in Crimea, something the occupation authorities have been concealing. It was noted that the healthcare watchdog received a collective letter of complaint from medics in one of the Simferopol hospitals. ...
2/
...They demand proper supplies of PPE and medicines for hospital staff amid the "epidemic spread of cholera since June 2024".
Water is heavy and 2 liters of clean water a day is the minimum needed for survival.
I've been studying WW2 radio navigation/radio intercept systems for about nine years, on and off.
Adcock antenna showed up a great deal in that period tech in both applications.
We seem to have one below.⬇️
2/
Adcock/Watson-Watt Radio Direction Finding array tech has evolved & merged into the Controlled Reception Pattern Antenna (CRPA). A solid state technology that is used in most GPS receivers.
The thing is, mimicking WW2 tech with modern electronics is both light & cheap.
...with this video of the Trump Shooter moving across the roof in Butler PA in plain view of the counter-sniper team to the side of & above former Pres. Trump.
The failure of that team to direct Trump to be moved has no good explanation & many bad.
This is "the Collapse of Expertise" for an entire US Federal Agency.
The USSS failure to tie into local law enforcement is so far below the professional standards of any US law enforcement agency it amounts to institutionalized incompetence.
USSS management culture is gangrenous with incompetence.
The only answer is a new Federal executive protection agency with strict statutory exemptions from Federal disparate impact legal doctrine and none of the current USSS managers.
2/
The Federal executive protection mission is too important to be left to an incompetent Federal bureaucracy whose management has been institutionally pithed out by "political theater" hiring.
3/
I am strongly recommending reading this @wartranslated post where Alexander Kharchenko detail the collapse of RuAF motor transportation to the front lines.
FPV drones are strangling RuAF logistics in the "last 10 km" now, compared to one km in July 2023.