Trent Telenko Profile picture
Aug 5 14 tweets 5 min read Read on X
It looks like the Russian railway's western cassette roller bearing wear out & capability collapse I've said was coming for a couple of years...

...is now arriving.

Assuming this report is true⬇️

1/
In simple terms, we are in August 2024 after this bearing wear out prediction for February 2024.⬇️

This is something I've been expecting to see since September 2022.⬇️

The life of installed 5 million km Western roller bearings are ending for more and more Russian locomotives and rolling stock.

The Russian pattern of the most neglected...

2/
...track meeting the most neglected engines & rolling stock will cause more & more derailments starting in the arctic, then the Far East.

Then derailments in the Caucuses, moving towards Moscow/St Petersburg.

Finally, we would see derailments of the repair trains.

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In Oct 2022 Russia had 10,000 freight cars out of service, with 200,000 more railway freight cars at risk of bearing wear out after a few of years of Western sanctions

4/
Every January the Russian government owned railway monopoly cycles a large fraction of the engines offline for periodic maintenance and it takes 2-to-3 months to recover full capacity.

Look what happened for the 2024 bottom red trend line.⬇️ (H/T @Prune602)

5/ Image
The count down to Russian railway collapse from a lack of replacement Western railway cassette bearings in railway car trucks was straight forward math, unless you believe in "Russia Strong ™️" or "Escalation Management™️" ideological delusions.🙄

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If you believe in either delusion, then no amount of empirical evidence has any meaning.

The rejection of the empirical is the antecedent condition for either delusion.

If you accept empirical evidence, you cannot become invested in either

7/
..."Russia Strong™️" or "Escalation Management™️".

The empirical view is rooted in ground truths, like sun rotted tires, & the delusional is rooted in wishful thinking.

And these twin delusions mean the West is failing to plan for a Russian railway collapse.


8/Image
Western governments failing to plan for Russian transportation collapse & defeat, so as to manage the transition to a stable post-war world, will put post-Putin Russia on the slippery slope to the hell

9/
...of becoming a continent spanning Lebanese Civil War with loose bugs, loose nukes & novachuk gas equipped sprayer drones.

It may not be possible to avoid this Russian meltdown collapse, but failing to plan for the possibility, is planning to fail when it arrives.

10/
The economic repercussions of Russian energy & food suddenly just falling out the world economy from this pending "railway transportation collapse apocalypse" beggars the imagination.

Even @PeterZeihan pales at the thought.

11/
Western national security and economic policy makers ought to be putting together crisis teams to evaluate the implications for both the world economy and for obtaining an armistice.

Using access to railway cassette bearings as a leaver...

12/
...to obtain the two most important concessions -- Pre-2014 Ukrainian borders & getting back Ukraine's kidnapped populations -- that will make a lasting cessation of hostilities possible.

But they won't.

They believe in "Russia Strong™️" or "Escalation Management™️".

13/13 End

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More from @TrentTelenko

Aug 5
Two additional cities in Russian occupied Eastern Crimea are now reporting Cholera outbreaks in addition to Simferopol and Central Crimea🧵

Dzhankoy and Feodosia in Eastern Crimea on the Russian Army GLOC implies bad s--t, literally, in local water.

1/
ukrinform.net/rubric-society…
The real question is this local Cholera or is it being transported via Russian wounded coming from the front lines?🤔

Cholera is resident in shallow Crimean groundwater wells that are not treated.

As there is a shortage of Crimean deep bore water, no reservoir diverted water
2/
...after the destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam and evaporating rainfall reservoir water, all of which have treatment plants.

The odds are that the Russian occupation authorities are using water from local ponds or wells that is infected & are not boiling or treating it.

3/
Read 10 tweets
Aug 3
Water & disease, disease & water, they are the alpha and omega of warfare in Crimea.

The Russian bill for destroying the Nova Kakhovka dam has come due.🧵

From the link:

"Earlier, media reports said since mid-June, a cholera epidemic...

1/
ukrinform.net/rubric-society…
...has been in place in Crimea, something the occupation authorities have been concealing. It was noted that the healthcare watchdog received a collective letter of complaint from medics in one of the Simferopol hospitals. ...

2/
...They demand proper supplies of PPE and medicines for hospital staff amid the "epidemic spread of cholera since June 2024".

Water is heavy and 2 liters of clean water a day is the minimum needed for survival.

Soldiers fighting need more.
3/
Read 10 tweets
Aug 2
This is an amazingly useful thread by @DanielR33187703 on a shot down Ukrainian Baba Yaga drone with a precision guided munition.

There is a lot that stands out to a WW2 EW historian.

WW2 Radio Tech in Ukraine🧵
1/
I've been studying WW2 radio navigation/radio intercept systems for about nine years, on and off.

Adcock antenna showed up a great deal in that period tech in both applications.

We seem to have one below.⬇️

2/ Image
Adcock/Watson-Watt Radio Direction Finding array tech has evolved & merged into the Controlled Reception Pattern Antenna (CRPA). A solid state technology that is used in most GPS receivers.

The thing is, mimicking WW2 tech with modern electronics is both light & cheap.

3/

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Read 17 tweets
Aug 1
This is the visual of when Biden Administration "Escalation Management" Foreign Policy had its final credibility collapse.

Kinda like the Biden Administration US Secret Service credibility just did...

1/
...with this video of the Trump Shooter moving across the roof in Butler PA in plain view of the counter-sniper team to the side of & above former Pres. Trump.

The failure of that team to direct Trump to be moved has no good explanation & many bad.

2/
I greatly fear a political Rubicon was crossed in both the Wagner in Venezuela & Butler assassination attempt videos.

G-d help us all. Image
Read 4 tweets
Jul 30
This is "the Collapse of Expertise" for an entire US Federal Agency.

The USSS failure to tie into local law enforcement is so far below the professional standards of any US law enforcement agency it amounts to institutionalized incompetence.

It's all very Russian.

1/
USSS management culture is gangrenous with incompetence.

The only answer is a new Federal executive protection agency with strict statutory exemptions from Federal disparate impact legal doctrine and none of the current USSS managers.

2/
The Federal executive protection mission is too important to be left to an incompetent Federal bureaucracy whose management has been institutionally pithed out by "political theater" hiring.

3/
Read 5 tweets
Jul 29
I am strongly recommending reading this @wartranslated post where Alexander Kharchenko detail the collapse of RuAF motor transportation to the front lines.

FPV drones are strangling RuAF logistics in the "last 10 km" now, compared to one km in July 2023.

FPV shaping🧵
1/
Image
Alexander Kharchenko validates my earlier posts about there being no evidence of dedicated Russian logistics elements.

When Kharchenko talks about the need for heavy multicopter drones and uncrewed ground vehicles to move through the FPV blockade...
2/
...he says the following:

"And this should be done by specially trained advanced logistics teams."

"Advanced Logistics" is a term Kharchenko uses to describe crossing the last 10 km from trucks to tenches.

This underlines mobik "animal labor logistics"...

3/ Image
Read 17 tweets

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