1/ As Ukrainian forces advance in the Kursk region, law and order in frontline Russian-held areas is reported to have collapsed completely. "Rampant looting" is said have broken out – being done by the Russians themselves – while local residents say they feel abandoned. ⬇️
2/ The VChK-OGPU Telegram channel reports that "in the border areas of the Kursk region, where fighting has been going on all week, there are no police, no firefighters, no doctors, no representatives of the administration.
3/ "According to official information, more than 76,000 people left the settlements (most of them left on their own, since there was no organized evacuation, despite the statements of the authorities), but there are still people there, mostly elderly."
4/ The channel says that "the desertion of villages and towns has become a catalyst for rampant looting". The disorder is being carried out by the Russians themselves, though it isn't clear if opportunistic civilians or indisciplined soldiers are responsible.
5/ A local resident says: "They are robbing stores, there is a collapse in Korenevo, the “Magnit” [supermarket, pictured below] was simply destroyed. There is no water, no gas, no electricity.
6/ "There was no organized evacuation, and if there was, then why didn’t we hear anything about it in Lobanovka [an outlying area of Korenevo]?"
According to VChK-OGPU, "a similar situation exists in other border municipalities."
7/ It reports that "Kursk residents are sure that representatives of the [regional] administration, having abandoned people to their fate, themselves provoked the collapse in the border areas.
8/ "Currently, it is impossible to get through to the administration of the Korenevsky district of the Kursk region. People are forced to self-organise in order to protect themselves and their property and essentially perform the functions of state and law enforcement agencies."
Addendum: The Ukrainians have now published a video which shows soldiers, possibly from the Rosgvardia, looting an abandoned Russian house in the Kursk region. New thread here:
1/ Ukraine's attacks on two of Wildberries' biggest warehouses in Russia, causing losses estimated at over $1.2 billion dollars, has once again prompted Russian warbloggers to ask "when will we start fighting for real?" ⬇️
2/ Ever since the great Russian retreat in 2022, after the unsuccessful assault on Kyiv, ultra-nationalist warbloggers and supporters of the war have been demanding to know why the war is not being fought according to their preferences, blaming a 'weak' elite for the failures.
3/ The Wildberries attacks have revived such sentiments, with warbloggers perceiving the massive destruction as a humiliation and sign of Russian weaknees. 'Intelligence Diary' complains:
1/ As Ukraine's drone campaign against Russian shipping and energy targets steps up, Igor 'Strelkov' Girkin warns that "WITHOUT URGENT MEASURES TO COUNTER THE AIR OFFENSIVE, THE DAMAGE TO OUR MILITARY ECONOMY COULD REACH AN OMINOUS PROPORTION". ⬇️
2/ Writing from the prison where he is currently incarcerated, Girkin is (as usual) scathing about the deficiencies of the Russian strategy and alarmed at the scale and ambition of Ukraine's targeting of Russian strategic assets. He writes:
3/ "So, let's start with the enemy's strategy: IT IS CLEAR, UNDERSTANDABLE, LOGICAL, AND SO FAR FAIRLY EFFECTIVE (since countermeasures are not yet capable of stopping effective strikes on the enemy's chosen targets).
1/ Russia's leaky air defences are once again coming under scrutiny following the huge destruction caused by last night's Ukrainian strikes on Russian distribution centres. Russian warbloggers say that air defence teams aren't even being paid currently. ⬇️
2/ 'Combat Reserve' reports that mobile air defence teams in the Kursk and Belgorod regions, formed from the Moscow police department (MOGI), "aren't receiving their salaries. Payments are delayed throughout 2026. Not only these regions, but the entire border region as well."
3/ "It’s quite possible this is linked to local budgets, after all, [they] aren’t the Ministry of Culture, and the cash there takes a roundabout route through local officials.
1/ Ukraine's devastating overnight drone attacks on Wildberries warehouses in Russia are likely intended to cause damage across the Russian economy and increase public discontent. The estimated losses may exceed $1.2 billion. ⬇️
2/ At least 7 people are reported to have been killed and 49 more injured in the attacks. The head of Wildberries has promised to help the families of those killed. According to Russian estimates based on previous warehouse fires, financial losses are likely to be colossal.
3/ In a similar fire at Shushary, near St. Petersburg, in January 2024, Wildberries estimated the damage at 10 billion rubles ($127 million). It paid an additional 34.9 billion rubles ($449 million) to sellers in compensation for their losses.
1/ Ukraine's campaign against Russian shipping is claimed to have hit 159 vessels in only 12 days. Numerous vessels have been crippled, knocking out a significant fraction of Russia's maritime exports. A Russian commentary describes how it's being done. ⬇️
2/ The Russian political analyst Igor Dimitriev assesses the tactics being used in the campaign, and how 'Operation “MoLoChKa' is affecting Russia's oil exports:
"They don't sink the vessels, they immobilise them."
3/ "Initially, they fired at the crew in the wheelhouse—the vessel would be blinded, but the engine would still work, and the crews learned to steer from the wheelhouse using a compass and telephone.
1/ Reports from Crimea say that Ukraine's drone blockade is causing prices to soar, electricity and water supplies are intermittent or absent, and mobile phone access is down. Shelves are empty and supplies aren't arriving for lack of fuel. ⬇️
2/ 'Alex Parker Returns' summarises what a reader of his Telegram channel says about the situation in northern Crimea:
"There's no electricity at all, water supply is intermittent, mobile phone service is only at certain times."
3/ "There's nothing to even restore at the substations. They need to be rebuilt. As a result, northern Crimea is abandoned. It's only a matter of time before the rest of Crimea collapses.