Kursk Counter-Invasion Day 8 Update
13 AUG 2024 17:30 PDT
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Total area: 1,059.3 sq km
Breach: 73.4 km
Depth: up to 28.0 km
🟧Ukraine control: 769.5 sq km
🟨Russian claimed/gray area: 289.8 sq km
🏁Ukrainian presence
💥Claimed fighting
🔴Russian presence
1/n
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The Russian Ukraine War Report Podcast for August 13, 2024, is live
Ukrainian Air Force is conducting sorties in Russia, using AASM HAMMER and JDAM-ER glide bombs. Tetkino was hit by airstrikes.
Claims that Ukraine liberated Korovyakovskaya Sosh are false. Don't go after the OP who did the geo; they didn't know.
Kursk 2/n
Korenevo AO
Fighting continues in eastern Korenevo.
Russian reports of fighting in Tolpino continue. New reports of fighting in or near Garilovka, Aleksandrovka, and Vetreno; moved to Russian claims.
No geo yet to confirm Olgovka is liberated.
Kursk 3/n
Korenevo AO
New reports of fighting in Gordeevka, which we believe is under Ukrainian control, but no intel to support. Expanded gray area to Troitskoe and Byakhovo.
Satellite imagery shows fires in northern Snagost, adjusted the area of Ukrainian controlled.
Kursk 4/n
Lgov Operational Direction
New geos of Ukrainian forces near Otradnoye, Semenovka, and west of Kromskie Byki.
Last week, we assessed that Ukraine was using the backroads parallel to the Sudzha-Lgov Highway as GLOC instead of the highway. highly likely, keep reading
Kursk 5/n
Lgov Operational Direction
Based on a week of geos and using terrain analysis, we coded everything on the Ukrainian GLOC from Kauchuk south as liberated.
Ukrainian forces have used the GLOC to head east to Kromskie Byki, Durovo-Bobrik, and Isakovka
Kursk 6/n
Lgov Operational Direction
Chechen is northern Malaya Loknya get blasted. Given the geo, we moved Pogrebki, Marevka, Orlovka, Novaya Sorochina, and Staraya Sorochina to Russian controlled.
We assess unlikely Ukraine using Sudzha-Lgov Hwy as GLOC given the new intel.
Kursk 7/n
Sudzha AO
Ukrainian forces confirmed fighting in Berdin. Based on geos and multiple reports, Martynovka moved to Ukrainian liberated (again). Kruglik moved to Russian claimed, and fighting marked in Berdin.
Kursk 8/n
Sudzha AO
We have our doubts about Russian claims of Ukrainian troops in Bolshoe Soldatskoe and the capture of Kukui, as it's the administrative seat of the Bolshesoldatsky District of Kursk. Mandatory evac was ordered today. Doubt is not enough to change map.
Kursk 9/n
Sudzha AO
Yesterday, we pulled back Ukraine west of Russkoe Porechnoe as there had been no geos since Aug 8, and we were almost the lone voice. And, of course, there's a new geo today in the area of Russkoe Porechnoe.
We moved the area back to liberated.
Kursk 10/n
Sudzha AO
Yesterday, we broke our own rules when we moved Dmitriukov to Russian controlled. Do we have a pic showing Ukrainian forces in settlement? Yes. Did Russia release pic to back up their claim? No.
Multiple sources report under Ukrainian control, moved back.
Kursk 11/n
Sudzha AO
Russian sources report Ukraine liberated Kolmakov. We coded the area as Russian claimed.
Kursk 12/n
Belaya AO
Large Ukrainian presence in Plekhovo. Russian sources report fighting on the western edge of Kamyshoe. Yesterday, reports of Ukraine liberating Borki and Spalnoe aligned with today's reports and the ambush in Giri. Moved Ukrainian controlled to Krupets.
Kursk 13/n
Kursk - Analysis
"Journalist" assessment that Russia won't risk an offensive in Budzha due to the risk of damaging the Gazprom Budzha gas compressor and metering station was poorly researched. Russia is bombing its own infrastructure.
On August 11, we reported the E-38 Hwy Bridge over the Seym River in Rylsk had been damaged by a Ukrainian strike. The geo was wrong. The bridge is east of Glushkovo. We appreciate your understanding. The truth matters.
Did you know that our map is interactive and has layers? Well, now you do. If you use our map for news stories or social media, we kindly ask for an @. Analyst work and journalism are literally how we pay the bills.
Kursk 16/n
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13 August 2024 Russia-Ukraine War Report Podcast (produced in Kyiv)
Last year, I wrote an analysis of Trump vs. Putin. I concluded there were two absolutes for both men.
1) Both hate hearing "no."
2) Both hate disloyalty.
When I wrote that analysis, I predicted they were on a collision course due to their egos and motivations.
1/16
As spring turned into summer, my hope faded as Trump repeatedly gave Putin "two weeks" despite it being painfully obvious that Witkoff was not the right guy to speak on behalf of the White House, and Putin was stringing Trump along.
2/16
There were flashes of improvement following the disastrous White House meeting on February 28. Trump and Zelenskyy meeting at the Vatican on April 26. The White House seeing through Putin's cynical "ceasefire" offer for Moscow's Victory Day Parade. Anger at the Palm Sunday attack on Sumy.
With Zapad-2025 just 3 days away, it would be foolish to dismiss tonight's airspace violations into Poland as "accidental" and not representing a threat.
This is not to say that Russia is planning to attack Poland using Zapad-2025 as a cover.
Military doctrine 101 teaches that a provocation this close to the start of major wargames on a nation's border should be viewed as a significant threat, and appropriate preventative measures should be taken.
1/9
It is extremely alarming that full ground stops were issued at Lublin and Rzeszów airports, as both are major logistics hubs for military aid into Ukraine. Rzeszów is also a major U.S. logistics hub for Eastern Europe. This is in addition to the ground stops at Warsaw and Modlin.
2/9
Tonight represents the sixth time Polish airspace has been violated since 20 August, with a clear pattern of escalation.
The incident, which some U.S. and European officials are openly calling an "act of war," comes less than a month after autocrat Vladimir Putin visited President Donald Trump in Alaska, claiming to seek peace.
3/9
Apparently, who feeds America needs to be explained to people. There is nuance.
1/20
Not all undocumented workers are exploited by their employers and paid slave wages. Many are paid a fair and legal wage. Some workers commit the crime of using the social security numbers of dead people and other individuals. Some of those workers are even assisted by their employers.
2/20
Legally documented workers here on visas with conditional social security numbers for work are treated like their citizen peers. Additionally, they are here legally, with a work permit.
It will cost Russia as much, if not more, to service the bonds currently being sold versus what the bonds are raising for the government in the short term.
Breaking the Russian economy is the path to peace.
As of July 11, the Kremlin was running a deficit of over 5 trillion rubles, almost double the available funds remaining in the wealth fund. April's tax receipts did little to improve the situation. This is a ticking bomb on a short fuse.
2/21
The Kremlin has been forced to nationalize industries, claim questionable wealth from oligarchs using even more questionable reasons, and continue to force companies to convert their foreign currency deposit accounts into rubles to prop up the currency.
A surprisingly lucid doom post from the Telegram channel Veteran's Notes (Notes of a Veteran) from 13 July:
"No one is thinking of recognizing the new territories included in the Constitution of the Russian Federation..."
1/12
...Even if the Russian Federation now abandons Kherson and [Zaporizhzhia] and agrees to conclude a deal on the front line at the moment, no one will recognize the liberated territories, including Crimea, as Russian lands...
2/12
...Any agreements now are, at most, a freeze on the conflict for a respite, to re-equip and rearm the Ukrainian Armed Forces, to take revenge, and even try to inflict a military defeat on Russia again in the future...