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Malcontent News Profile picture
@MalcontentmentT
Aug 14, 2024 • 18 tweets • 10 min read • Read on X
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Kursk Counter-Invasion Day 8 Update
13 AUG 2024 17:30 PDT
Retweet appreciated

Total area: 1,059.3 sq km
Breach: 73.4 km
Depth: up to 28.0 km
🟧Ukraine control: 769.5 sq km
🟨Russian claimed/gray area: 289.8 sq km
🏁Ukrainian presence
💥Claimed fighting
🔴Russian presence

1/n


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Did you miss our last update?

The Russian Ukraine War Report Podcast for August 13, 2024, is live


You can also use our interactive war map

Kursk
2/n
link.chtbl.com/rusukrwar
google.com/maps/d/u/0/vie…
Tetkino AO

Ukrainian Air Force is conducting sorties in Russia, using AASM HAMMER and JDAM-ER glide bombs. Tetkino was hit by airstrikes.

Claims that Ukraine liberated Korovyakovskaya Sosh are false. Don't go after the OP who did the geo; they didn't know.

Kursk
2/n

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Korenevo AO

Fighting continues in eastern Korenevo.

Russian reports of fighting in Tolpino continue. New reports of fighting in or near Garilovka, Aleksandrovka, and Vetreno; moved to Russian claims.

No geo yet to confirm Olgovka is liberated.

Kursk
3/n Image
Korenevo AO

New reports of fighting in Gordeevka, which we believe is under Ukrainian control, but no intel to support. Expanded gray area to Troitskoe and Byakhovo.

Satellite imagery shows fires in northern Snagost, adjusted the area of Ukrainian controlled.

Kursk
4/n
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Lgov Operational Direction

New geos of Ukrainian forces near Otradnoye, Semenovka, and west of Kromskie Byki.

Last week, we assessed that Ukraine was using the backroads parallel to the Sudzha-Lgov Highway as GLOC instead of the highway. highly likely, keep reading

Kursk
5/n Image
Lgov Operational Direction

Based on a week of geos and using terrain analysis, we coded everything on the Ukrainian GLOC from Kauchuk south as liberated.

Ukrainian forces have used the GLOC to head east to Kromskie Byki, Durovo-Bobrik, and Isakovka

Kursk
6/n Image
Lgov Operational Direction

Chechen is northern Malaya Loknya get blasted. Given the geo, we moved Pogrebki, Marevka, Orlovka, Novaya Sorochina, and Staraya Sorochina to Russian controlled.

We assess unlikely Ukraine using Sudzha-Lgov Hwy as GLOC given the new intel.

Kursk
7/n
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Sudzha AO

Ukrainian forces confirmed fighting in Berdin. Based on geos and multiple reports, Martynovka moved to Ukrainian liberated (again). Kruglik moved to Russian claimed, and fighting marked in Berdin.

Kursk
8/n Image
Sudzha AO

We have our doubts about Russian claims of Ukrainian troops in Bolshoe Soldatskoe and the capture of Kukui, as it's the administrative seat of the Bolshesoldatsky District of Kursk. Mandatory evac was ordered today. Doubt is not enough to change map.

Kursk
9/n

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Sudzha AO

Yesterday, we pulled back Ukraine west of Russkoe Porechnoe as there had been no geos since Aug 8, and we were almost the lone voice. And, of course, there's a new geo today in the area of Russkoe Porechnoe.

We moved the area back to liberated.

Kursk
10/n Image
Sudzha AO

Yesterday, we broke our own rules when we moved Dmitriukov to Russian controlled. Do we have a pic showing Ukrainian forces in settlement? Yes. Did Russia release pic to back up their claim? No.

Multiple sources report under Ukrainian control, moved back.

Kursk
11/n Image
Sudzha AO

Russian sources report Ukraine liberated Kolmakov. We coded the area as Russian claimed.

Kursk
12/n Image
Belaya AO

Large Ukrainian presence in Plekhovo. Russian sources report fighting on the western edge of Kamyshoe. Yesterday, reports of Ukraine liberating Borki and Spalnoe aligned with today's reports and the ambush in Giri. Moved Ukrainian controlled to Krupets.

Kursk
13/n Image
Kursk - Analysis

"Journalist" assessment that Russia won't risk an offensive in Budzha due to the risk of damaging the Gazprom Budzha gas compressor and metering station was poorly researched. Russia is bombing its own infrastructure.

14/n
Kursk - Errors and Omissions

On August 11, we reported the E-38 Hwy Bridge over the Seym River in Rylsk had been damaged by a Ukrainian strike. The geo was wrong. The bridge is east of Glushkovo. We appreciate your understanding. The truth matters.



15/n

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Did you know that our map is interactive and has layers? Well, now you do. If you use our map for news stories or social media, we kindly ask for an @. Analyst work and journalism are literally how we pay the bills.

Kursk
16/n

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Our resources and channels:

13 August 2024 Russia-Ukraine War Report Podcast (produced in Kyiv)


12 August 2024 Situation Report

Russia-Ukraine War Map

Retweets appreciated

Kursk
17/17 FINlink.chtbl.com/rusukrwar
patreon.com/posts/russia-u…
google.com/maps/d/u/0/vie…

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More from @MalcontentmentT

Malcontent News Profile picture
Jul 17
It will cost Russia as much, if not more, to service the bonds currently being sold versus what the bonds are raising for the government in the short term.

Breaking the Russian economy is the path to peace.

1/21
As of July 11, the Kremlin was running a deficit of over 5 trillion rubles, almost double the available funds remaining in the wealth fund. April's tax receipts did little to improve the situation. This is a ticking bomb on a short fuse.

2/21
The Kremlin has been forced to nationalize industries, claim questionable wealth from oligarchs using even more questionable reasons, and continue to force companies to convert their foreign currency deposit accounts into rubles to prop up the currency.

3/21
Read 21 tweets
Malcontent News Profile picture
Jul 14
A surprisingly lucid doom post from the Telegram channel Veteran's Notes (Notes of a Veteran) from 13 July:

"No one is thinking of recognizing the new territories included in the Constitution of the Russian Federation..."

1/12 Image
...Even if the Russian Federation now abandons Kherson and [Zaporizhzhia] and agrees to conclude a deal on the front line at the moment, no one will recognize the liberated territories, including Crimea, as Russian lands...

2/12
...Any agreements now are, at most, a freeze on the conflict for a respite, to re-equip and rearm the Ukrainian Armed Forces, to take revenge, and even try to inflict a military defeat on Russia again in the future...

3/12
Read 12 tweets
Malcontent News Profile picture
Jul 10
After declining for months, the number of Russian officers being killed in action has increased sharply (yes, I'm accounting for the backlog and May 2025 war memorial updates).

There are 2 reasons for this.

1/7
Russia has a top-down command structure and no NCO corps. Subordinates are not empowered to overcome, adapt, and improvise. This has been a cornerstone of Russian military doctrine since the Tzars.

This forces senior officers to the frontlines.

2/7
The first thing to break is the battle plan, and unlike 2024, when Ukrainian forces made several disastrous mistakes, opportunities like botched troop rotations have been thin.

Russian command structure hasn't changed, Ukraine's is finally incrementally improving.

3/7
Read 7 tweets
Malcontent News Profile picture
Jun 6
Correct, and @AndrewPerpetua's tweet yesterday about visually confirmed Russian daily casualties vs. the number of attacks supports our February 26 analysis that Russia's combat potential has peaked and is entering a slow decline.

A 🧵🔽

1/n
Neither combatant can do anything "big," but Ukraine has been forced to think outside the box (Operation Spiderweb).

2/n
Barring some unforseen event (CBRN use, a major screw up by one of the combatants enabling a massive Kharkiv Counteroffensive sized breakthrough) the days of measuring daily gains in multiple kilometers is over.

3/n
Read 14 tweets
Malcontent News Profile picture
May 11
Are They Federal Agents or Federally Appointed Goon Squads

Equipment, training, and tactics used in Newark and Worcester raise serious questions about who has been empowered by the federal government to enforce immigration law.

🧵

1/15 Image
The video showing the arrest of Newark Mayor Ras Baraka is only 72 seconds long, but it raises many questions about who is enforcing the law.

Baraka has since been released, and new videos show that Congresspersons didn't "storm" Delaney Hall, and were granted peaceful access. This video happens outside of the Delaney perimeter.

2/15
At the start of the video, Mayor Ras Baraka is being held by an unknown individual not wearing a federally designated DHS/ICE uniform. The man behind him (blue jacket, American flag) has been identified as a Department of Homeland Security Investigations officer and the man who signed the arrest papers for Baraka.

3/15Image
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Read 16 tweets
Malcontent News Profile picture
Apr 30
Most of Russia's territorial gains were in the Toretsk-Niu York area of operation, capturing a handful of smaller settlements and villages and advancing using treelines into some fields.

203 casualties per sq km is brutal.

It's worth noting that Russia lost territory south and southwest of Pokrovsk, and we maintain that the area around Sribne is a giant gray area. Russian forces have not been observed west of the village since 10-12 April, and anything that was geolocated was obliterated.

It also appears that Ukrainian forces have finally stabilized new defensive lines in the Vremivka Ledge (Velyka Novosilka) area.

1/5Image
Coming into May, the areas that concern us the most include:

1️⃣The Russian bridgehead over the Oskil River north of Kupiansk - we maintain this should have been dealt with in February
2️⃣The Russian advance west of Terny/Yampolivka in the direction of Lyman and/or Borova
3️⃣Russia's reprioritization of capturing Kostiantynivka

2/5
In our assessment, the announced evacuation of families with children from several villages in the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast is more likely related to artillery and drone attacks and airstrikes.

Russian logistics in the Solone salient are FUBAR due to Ukrainian drones. We don't see a large-scale attack at Udachne and a Russian push to the west. Almost everything Russia is moving north of the Solona River is by foot, using the treelines and gullies.

3/5Image
Read 5 tweets

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