Kursk Counter-Invasion Day 8 Update
13 AUG 2024 17:30 PDT
Retweet appreciated
Total area: 1,059.3 sq km
Breach: 73.4 km
Depth: up to 28.0 km
🟧Ukraine control: 769.5 sq km
🟨Russian claimed/gray area: 289.8 sq km
🏁Ukrainian presence
💥Claimed fighting
🔴Russian presence
1/n
Did you miss our last update?
The Russian Ukraine War Report Podcast for August 13, 2024, is live
Ukrainian Air Force is conducting sorties in Russia, using AASM HAMMER and JDAM-ER glide bombs. Tetkino was hit by airstrikes.
Claims that Ukraine liberated Korovyakovskaya Sosh are false. Don't go after the OP who did the geo; they didn't know.
Kursk 2/n
Korenevo AO
Fighting continues in eastern Korenevo.
Russian reports of fighting in Tolpino continue. New reports of fighting in or near Garilovka, Aleksandrovka, and Vetreno; moved to Russian claims.
No geo yet to confirm Olgovka is liberated.
Kursk 3/n
Korenevo AO
New reports of fighting in Gordeevka, which we believe is under Ukrainian control, but no intel to support. Expanded gray area to Troitskoe and Byakhovo.
Satellite imagery shows fires in northern Snagost, adjusted the area of Ukrainian controlled.
Kursk 4/n
Lgov Operational Direction
New geos of Ukrainian forces near Otradnoye, Semenovka, and west of Kromskie Byki.
Last week, we assessed that Ukraine was using the backroads parallel to the Sudzha-Lgov Highway as GLOC instead of the highway. highly likely, keep reading
Kursk 5/n
Lgov Operational Direction
Based on a week of geos and using terrain analysis, we coded everything on the Ukrainian GLOC from Kauchuk south as liberated.
Ukrainian forces have used the GLOC to head east to Kromskie Byki, Durovo-Bobrik, and Isakovka
Kursk 6/n
Lgov Operational Direction
Chechen is northern Malaya Loknya get blasted. Given the geo, we moved Pogrebki, Marevka, Orlovka, Novaya Sorochina, and Staraya Sorochina to Russian controlled.
We assess unlikely Ukraine using Sudzha-Lgov Hwy as GLOC given the new intel.
Kursk 7/n
Sudzha AO
Ukrainian forces confirmed fighting in Berdin. Based on geos and multiple reports, Martynovka moved to Ukrainian liberated (again). Kruglik moved to Russian claimed, and fighting marked in Berdin.
Kursk 8/n
Sudzha AO
We have our doubts about Russian claims of Ukrainian troops in Bolshoe Soldatskoe and the capture of Kukui, as it's the administrative seat of the Bolshesoldatsky District of Kursk. Mandatory evac was ordered today. Doubt is not enough to change map.
Kursk 9/n
Sudzha AO
Yesterday, we pulled back Ukraine west of Russkoe Porechnoe as there had been no geos since Aug 8, and we were almost the lone voice. And, of course, there's a new geo today in the area of Russkoe Porechnoe.
We moved the area back to liberated.
Kursk 10/n
Sudzha AO
Yesterday, we broke our own rules when we moved Dmitriukov to Russian controlled. Do we have a pic showing Ukrainian forces in settlement? Yes. Did Russia release pic to back up their claim? No.
Multiple sources report under Ukrainian control, moved back.
Kursk 11/n
Sudzha AO
Russian sources report Ukraine liberated Kolmakov. We coded the area as Russian claimed.
Kursk 12/n
Belaya AO
Large Ukrainian presence in Plekhovo. Russian sources report fighting on the western edge of Kamyshoe. Yesterday, reports of Ukraine liberating Borki and Spalnoe aligned with today's reports and the ambush in Giri. Moved Ukrainian controlled to Krupets.
Kursk 13/n
Kursk - Analysis
"Journalist" assessment that Russia won't risk an offensive in Budzha due to the risk of damaging the Gazprom Budzha gas compressor and metering station was poorly researched. Russia is bombing its own infrastructure.
On August 11, we reported the E-38 Hwy Bridge over the Seym River in Rylsk had been damaged by a Ukrainian strike. The geo was wrong. The bridge is east of Glushkovo. We appreciate your understanding. The truth matters.
Did you know that our map is interactive and has layers? Well, now you do. If you use our map for news stories or social media, we kindly ask for an @. Analyst work and journalism are literally how we pay the bills.
Kursk 16/n
Our resources and channels:
13 August 2024 Russia-Ukraine War Report Podcast (produced in Kyiv)
Are They Federal Agents or Federally Appointed Goon Squads
Equipment, training, and tactics used in Newark and Worcester raise serious questions about who has been empowered by the federal government to enforce immigration law.
🧵
1/15
The video showing the arrest of Newark Mayor Ras Baraka is only 72 seconds long, but it raises many questions about who is enforcing the law.
Baraka has since been released, and new videos show that Congresspersons didn't "storm" Delaney Hall, and were granted peaceful access. This video happens outside of the Delaney perimeter.
2/15
At the start of the video, Mayor Ras Baraka is being held by an unknown individual not wearing a federally designated DHS/ICE uniform. The man behind him (blue jacket, American flag) has been identified as a Department of Homeland Security Investigations officer and the man who signed the arrest papers for Baraka.
Most of Russia's territorial gains were in the Toretsk-Niu York area of operation, capturing a handful of smaller settlements and villages and advancing using treelines into some fields.
203 casualties per sq km is brutal.
It's worth noting that Russia lost territory south and southwest of Pokrovsk, and we maintain that the area around Sribne is a giant gray area. Russian forces have not been observed west of the village since 10-12 April, and anything that was geolocated was obliterated.
It also appears that Ukrainian forces have finally stabilized new defensive lines in the Vremivka Ledge (Velyka Novosilka) area.
1/5
Coming into May, the areas that concern us the most include:
1️⃣The Russian bridgehead over the Oskil River north of Kupiansk - we maintain this should have been dealt with in February
2️⃣The Russian advance west of Terny/Yampolivka in the direction of Lyman and/or Borova
3️⃣Russia's reprioritization of capturing Kostiantynivka
2/5
In our assessment, the announced evacuation of families with children from several villages in the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast is more likely related to artillery and drone attacks and airstrikes.
Russian logistics in the Solone salient are FUBAR due to Ukrainian drones. We don't see a large-scale attack at Udachne and a Russian push to the west. Almost everything Russia is moving north of the Solona River is by foot, using the treelines and gullies.
The Port of Seattle shows a tariff-created consumer Armageddon coming?!?!
Not so fast, because the truth lies in the middle, and part of the story is being misrepresented.
1/6
You've probably seen this picture as proof that the Port of Seattle has no ships or containers left. Trucking has stopped, and the last ship from China arrived today.
This is Terminal 46, the closest to the Coleman Dock Ferry Terminal.
2/6
And the cranes were shut down in 2019 because they are outdated and don't have enough load capacity.
By the summer of 2023, the cargo containers at Terminal 46 were gone, and the 88-acre facility is now used to store new cars.
Since mid-March, Russia has carried out numerous multi-company and battalion-size daylight zerg rushes using cobbled-together Russian mechanized infantry formations. These attacks have not resulted in anything more than marginal gains. Repeated attacks by small groups of light infantry continue to be far more successful.
1/19
For the mechanized assaults, most don't even make it to the line of conflict, and what little does get past rarely consolidates any gains. In April, we noted two cases where not only did large mechanized assaults fail, but Russian forces ended up losing positions.
2/19
As soon as the localized Russian offensive goes sideways, light infantry and dismounts have no NCO corps to guide them. Videos show a lot of panic. Some run for cover in the treelines while others just rush across open fields. But there is no coordination. Drones pick them off. There is almost no close combat with small arms because they never reach the Ukrainian FLOT.
Israeli forces, police, national guard, internal security, Mossad, and the IDF are internationally known for their, shall we say, low tolerance.
Thousands arrested and held without charges for up to 5 months on sometimes questionable terrorist charges, a long list of accusations of human rights abuses.
Please don't mistake me for a pro-Palestinian. I'm anything but, and I am still embittered by the number of, ehem, "allies," that abandoned me on 8 October 2023 simply because they knew I am Jewish. No other reason. No, "hey tell me your thoughts on," just outright ended what I thought were friendships.
Sorry, I digressed. What's the cautionary tale?
1/10
In 2017, Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu was charged with corruption, and he has done everything in his power to drag out that trial while working to gut the power of the judicial branch.
Wait, this sounds familiar.
In 2023, Netanyahu and his far-right supporters were pushing to change the Israeli Constitution to raise the legal standard for Supreme Court decisions, which would essentially gut the court.
2/10
Israelis responded furiously to what they saw as a slide into authoritarianism and Netanyahu's attempt to avoid prosecution altogether.
In the summer of 2023, there were massive daily protests across Israel and general strikes, and something funny started to happen.
It's true! Zelenskyy does not have any cards because he's not playing poker. He just won a game of 3D chess.
The U.S. and Ukraine agree to immediately restore military aid and intelligence sharing and to a 30-day ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine War. Negotiations on the "mineral deal" will be restarted.
1/14
Over the weekend, President Trump, Secretary of State Rubio, Vice President JD Vance, and Elon Musk made inflammatory statements and false accusations directed at Ukraine. Zelenskyy and his team didn't take the bait.
Hours before today's negotiation, 337 drones attacked Russia, and according to the Russian Ministry of Defense, at least 91 targeted Moscow. 🧂🧂
Drones and missile and drone debris rained down across Moscow, closing airports, rail lines, and highways and killing and wounding dozens.
That was part of Zelenskyy's 3D chess.
2/14
Publicly and on the record, Zelenskyy is ready to accept a 30-day ceasefire. This undercuts the Trump administration and their surrogates talking points.
The U.S. responded by restoring military aid and intel sharing. This undercuts Trump administration critics talking points.
State Duma deputies are already saying there will be no ceasefire; Ukraine will use it to rearm/reconstitute its force in a month and attack us!