Kursk Counter-Invasion Day 8 Update
13 AUG 2024 17:30 PDT
Retweet appreciated
Total area: 1,059.3 sq km
Breach: 73.4 km
Depth: up to 28.0 km
🟧Ukraine control: 769.5 sq km
🟨Russian claimed/gray area: 289.8 sq km
🏁Ukrainian presence
💥Claimed fighting
🔴Russian presence
1/n
Did you miss our last update?
The Russian Ukraine War Report Podcast for August 13, 2024, is live
Ukrainian Air Force is conducting sorties in Russia, using AASM HAMMER and JDAM-ER glide bombs. Tetkino was hit by airstrikes.
Claims that Ukraine liberated Korovyakovskaya Sosh are false. Don't go after the OP who did the geo; they didn't know.
Kursk 2/n
Korenevo AO
Fighting continues in eastern Korenevo.
Russian reports of fighting in Tolpino continue. New reports of fighting in or near Garilovka, Aleksandrovka, and Vetreno; moved to Russian claims.
No geo yet to confirm Olgovka is liberated.
Kursk 3/n
Korenevo AO
New reports of fighting in Gordeevka, which we believe is under Ukrainian control, but no intel to support. Expanded gray area to Troitskoe and Byakhovo.
Satellite imagery shows fires in northern Snagost, adjusted the area of Ukrainian controlled.
Kursk 4/n
Lgov Operational Direction
New geos of Ukrainian forces near Otradnoye, Semenovka, and west of Kromskie Byki.
Last week, we assessed that Ukraine was using the backroads parallel to the Sudzha-Lgov Highway as GLOC instead of the highway. highly likely, keep reading
Kursk 5/n
Lgov Operational Direction
Based on a week of geos and using terrain analysis, we coded everything on the Ukrainian GLOC from Kauchuk south as liberated.
Ukrainian forces have used the GLOC to head east to Kromskie Byki, Durovo-Bobrik, and Isakovka
Kursk 6/n
Lgov Operational Direction
Chechen is northern Malaya Loknya get blasted. Given the geo, we moved Pogrebki, Marevka, Orlovka, Novaya Sorochina, and Staraya Sorochina to Russian controlled.
We assess unlikely Ukraine using Sudzha-Lgov Hwy as GLOC given the new intel.
Kursk 7/n
Sudzha AO
Ukrainian forces confirmed fighting in Berdin. Based on geos and multiple reports, Martynovka moved to Ukrainian liberated (again). Kruglik moved to Russian claimed, and fighting marked in Berdin.
Kursk 8/n
Sudzha AO
We have our doubts about Russian claims of Ukrainian troops in Bolshoe Soldatskoe and the capture of Kukui, as it's the administrative seat of the Bolshesoldatsky District of Kursk. Mandatory evac was ordered today. Doubt is not enough to change map.
Kursk 9/n
Sudzha AO
Yesterday, we pulled back Ukraine west of Russkoe Porechnoe as there had been no geos since Aug 8, and we were almost the lone voice. And, of course, there's a new geo today in the area of Russkoe Porechnoe.
We moved the area back to liberated.
Kursk 10/n
Sudzha AO
Yesterday, we broke our own rules when we moved Dmitriukov to Russian controlled. Do we have a pic showing Ukrainian forces in settlement? Yes. Did Russia release pic to back up their claim? No.
Multiple sources report under Ukrainian control, moved back.
Kursk 11/n
Sudzha AO
Russian sources report Ukraine liberated Kolmakov. We coded the area as Russian claimed.
Kursk 12/n
Belaya AO
Large Ukrainian presence in Plekhovo. Russian sources report fighting on the western edge of Kamyshoe. Yesterday, reports of Ukraine liberating Borki and Spalnoe aligned with today's reports and the ambush in Giri. Moved Ukrainian controlled to Krupets.
Kursk 13/n
Kursk - Analysis
"Journalist" assessment that Russia won't risk an offensive in Budzha due to the risk of damaging the Gazprom Budzha gas compressor and metering station was poorly researched. Russia is bombing its own infrastructure.
On August 11, we reported the E-38 Hwy Bridge over the Seym River in Rylsk had been damaged by a Ukrainian strike. The geo was wrong. The bridge is east of Glushkovo. We appreciate your understanding. The truth matters.
Did you know that our map is interactive and has layers? Well, now you do. If you use our map for news stories or social media, we kindly ask for an @. Analyst work and journalism are literally how we pay the bills.
Kursk 16/n
Our resources and channels:
13 August 2024 Russia-Ukraine War Report Podcast (produced in Kyiv)
Kursk Counter-Invasion Day 9
Update 14 AUG 2024 17:00 PDT
Retweet appreciated
Total area: 1,265 sq km
Breach: 85.6 km
Depth: up to 36 km
🟧Ukraine control: 883 sq km
🟨Russian claimed/gray area: 289.8 sq km
💥Reported combat
🔴Russian presence
We know more, OPSEC 🤐
1/n
Did you miss our last update?
The Russian Ukraine War Report Podcast for August 14, 2024, is live
There are conflicting reports about Snagost and Krasnooktyabrskoe. Reports on Snagost cover the spectrum from Ukrainian liberated, ongoing fight, and Russian control. We split the difference.
Russian sources insist fighting is ongoing in Tetkino. Added a small Russian claimed area
Russian sources claim, without evidence, that Gordeevka is occupied. We moved Viktorovka and Gordeevka to Russian claimed (see yesterday's thread about Viktorovka)
Kursk Offensive Day 5 Update 10 AUG 2024 16:45 PDT
Retweet appreciated
Breach: 58.9 km
Depth: up to 28.0 km
Ukraine control: 536 sq km (high confidence🟧)
Gray area: another 320.7 sq km (🟨)
Total area: 856.7 sq km
🏁= Ukrainian presence visually confirmed
1/n
Russian sources claim, without evidence, that Ukrainian forces occupied Krasnooktyabrskoe and reached the eastern edge of Korenevo. No change at Korenevo. Russian claim extended from Snagost to Krasnooktyabrskoe.
Kursk 2/n
There was a small argument on the team that Russian info about fighting in Viktorovka was both the one by Mala Loknya and near Uspenovka - info was getting conflated. (e.g. Myrne vs Myrne)
We did not adjust the map, but the area by Uspenovka is lit up on NASA FIRMS.
Kursk Offensive Day 4 🧵
Update: 09 AUG 2024 13:15 PDT
Yellow Zone is Russian-claimed
Breach: 56.8 km
Depth: up to 21.2 sq km
Ukraine control: 528.4 sq km (moderate confidence)
Gray area: another 246 sq km
Total area: 776.4 sq km
🏁= Ukrainian presence visually confirmed
1/n
We noticed that the media is quoting our work (with attribution). Thank you, and hello. There is more about us at the end of the thread.
We pulled back the Ukrainian advance in the direction of Snagost because, after multiple Russian claims, there's no evidence.
2/n
Ukrainian forces announced the capture of Sudzha and are visually confirmed in the village of Dmitriukov, 4.82 km from where Ukrainian troops made their capture claim at the Gazprom offices in Sudzha
Ukrainian forces also confirmed in southern Goncharovka
My wife was born, went to university, and started her career in a country where the government collapsed.
Years ago I asked her, what were the warning signs? What was going on in the months, weeks, and days before the government failed?
1/12
Her answer stunned me.
"Nothing."
You ate dinner, cleaned up, went to bed, woke up in the morning, and the news tells you the government failed.
No warning signs.
Nothing.
It just happened.
Yes, the news talked about the problems before, but collapse? Never.
2/12
In the immediate days that follow, you wake up, get dressed, make your tea, eat some bread and sausage, and get on the bus to go to work - or walk if it is a nicer day.
People talk about what's happening, but life goes on.