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Aug 14, 2024 17 tweets 5 min read Read on X
1/ Hundreds of Russians who have refused to fight for various reasons – age, sickness, mental health – are reported to have been taken from a military base where they were being held and flown to Kursk, where they will likely be used in efforts to repel Ukraine's incursion. ⬇️ Image
2/ ASTRA reports that hundreds of 'refuseniks' have been held at Kamenka near St Petersburg, where the 138th Separate Motorised Rifle Brigade is based. Relatives say that some are unfit to fight, one man is 70 years old and can barely walk, and another has only one eye. Image
3/ The existence of the Kamenka military detention facility does not seem to have been reported previously. It suggests that different regimes are in place in Russia and occupied Ukraine, where refuseniks have been tortured, beaten and starved.
4/ According to relatives, on 12 August "at about 6 pm they received a message from the men who were there that they had been suddenly called to line up, and then, without any explanation, they were put in KAMAZ trucks and taken to a military airfield under guard."
5/ Two groups, of around 300 people and 150 people respectively, were reportedly driven away from Kamenka. The latter group ended up at a military training ground 7 km from Kursk. "They took them, grabbed them like a parcel, put them in and took them away," the relatives say.
Image
6/ The men's wives are afraid that the army "will throw them onto the front line like meat, because they are not registering anything, they are not saying anything, everything is quiet."
7/ One man who was undergoing psychiatric treatment after fighting in the war told his mother that the army was "now dressing them, giving them an assault rifle and most likely [sending] them into battle."
8/ She worries that "if God forbid he has an explosion in his head and shoots someone, who will be to blame for this?"
9/ The men were not told where they were going. "As Comrade Colonel said, the center [in Kamenka] is being disbanded, but he does not know where they are being taken," a source told Astra.
10/ Around 20 of the refuseniks are said to have escaped on the way. It's not clear what will happen to them. Another 10 men "flatly refused" to board the buses and are reportedly being threatened with being sent to a pre-trial detention centre.
11/ The husband of one woman called her and told her that he and his companions "were just given assault rifles, changed into uniforms and sent to an unknown location. He says that about 20 servicemen managed to escape. No one was really looking for them."
12/ Like many of the convict soldiers who were sent to Ukraine in 2023, it appears that the refuseniks have become 'ghost soldiers' (see the thread below for more on this phenomenon).
13/ A wife says: "We found out that they are still registered in the village of Kamenka, in this detention center for missing servicemen. It seems that no one is going to re-register them, and they are not going to assign them to any unit either.
14/ My husband says: "I'm just walking like meat now." And, he says, even if I fall ill here, you won't get anything, no payments, nothing. According to the documents, he is simply not there [on the front lines]."
15/ It's likely that Russia's abrupt use of these men indicates a severe shortage of reserves in the Kursk region. This appears to be forcing the Russian army to use whatever manpower it can find, no matter how unsuitable it may be. /end

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More from @ChrisO_wiki

Jul 7
1/ Crimea is approaching an economic collapse amidst chronic fuel and electricity shortages, according to a Russian report from the region. Even water is a problem, due to a lack of energy to power pumps and the need to use generators to extract it. ⬇️
2/ The Russian Telegram blogger 'Lawyer in the South' reports on the current situation in Crimea and the Russian south-west:
3/ "Last week, I took a trip to Crimea by car.

This article isn't about assigning blame or sowing panic. It's an attempt to soberly assess the situation and consider ways to solve problems, not just react to them.
Read 18 tweets
Jul 7
1/ Ukraine's drone campaign is leading not only to fuel shortages but also political recriminations in Russia. The attack on the Omsk oil refinery yesterday is prompting increasingly harsh condemnations of Russia's government by Russian warbloggers. ⬇️
2/ 'Older than Edda' is outraged at the attack's success:

"Drone debris has reached Omsk, and hostile channels are distributing a defamatory video claiming it landed and caused a fire at a plant."
3/ "I don't want to be outraged yet again by the fact that several drones fly across the country for many hours and manage to hit something with drone debris."

Like many others, Sergey Kolayashnikov complains that it demonstrates Russian weakness:
Read 23 tweets
Jul 7
1/ Why is Russia's air defence system so patchy that it regularly lets Ukrainian drones cross thousands of kilometres of Russian territory? A prominent Russian drone developer highlights a range of deficiencies in Russia's air defences. ⬇️
2/ As noted by other warbloggers, yesterday's attack on the Omsk oil refinery required Ukrainian drones to fly at least 2,400 km. Russian drone developer Alexey Chadayev points out that air defence teams often don't bother shooting down drones that pass through their areas:
3/ "The situation with the Omsk Oil Refinery raises the awkward question of "transit" regions—regions where local anti-drone enforcement agents operate based on the objective-based defence principle: if it's not aimed at us, let it fly on,…
Read 23 tweets
Jul 6
1/ Today's Ukrainian strikes against a Russian oil refinery in distant Omsk are being greeted with gloom by Russian warbloggers. They say that their predictions of increasingly wide-ranging Ukrainian raids were ignored, but are now coming true. ⬇️
2/ 'Rybar' writes:

"What happened is what was predicted last year: Ukrainian formations were able to reach Omsk, which is more than 2,500 km from the front line, with modernised FP-1 drones.
3/ "We believe that against this backdrop, discussions and debates about the involvement of Kazakhstani territory and various saboteurs will start again, but this is just a search for excuses, not a solution.
Read 20 tweets
Jul 6
1/ Ukrainian drone manufacturer Fire Point's announcement that it has extended its FP-1 drone's range to 3,400 km (2,100 miles) is prompting alarm among Russian warbloggers. One notes that this puts many strategically vital sites in Siberia in range. ⬇️
2/ Russian journalist Igor Dmitriev comments:

"The head of Fire Point company, Denis Stiler, claims that the upgraded FP-1 drones can fly 3,400 km. Of course, he's just hype and lying! But if it's true, the following targets will be hit:
3/ "Tyumen Refinery (2,100 km) - already attacked in June, the fuel base of the country's main oil-producing region: gasoline and diesel are primarily used for domestic consumption in Western Siberia, including oil production itself.
Read 11 tweets
Jul 6
1/ What is the strategic purpose of Ukraine's intensive and relentless drone strike campaign against Russian-occupied Crimea? A Russian analysis suggests that it's intended to make the peninsula untenable and force Putin to sue for peace. ⬇️
2/ The Russian warblogger 'Artjockey' writes:

"Ukraine and Russia have exchanged long-range strikes: an oil refinery is on fire in Omsk, a warehouse has exploded in Kyiv, but I woke up thinking about Crimea."
3/ "It is there, in my view, that the key events of this summer are unfolding at breakneck speed, events which could influence the outcome of the war.
Read 21 tweets

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