Why the Russian defense in Kursk Failed.
A talk about Conscripts, Defensive Works, readiness, minefields and more.
Thread🧵
On august 6th two Ukrainian Battalions crossed the border with practically no resistance, where was the Russian defense and what was it doing.
The FSB's Department of the Border Protection office "Suzhda" was in charge of protecting the border in that sector and on paper they had a very good defensive network to work with.
The defensive system had a plethora of trenches and fighting positions, covered by Anti Tank Obstacles and minefields
The Suzhda sector never had any action unlike the border in Belgorod which was guarded by actual Contract troops and as a result readiness was to the bottom and complacency had long taken over.
The area was guarded by the Russian 17th and 18th border protection Battalions which were conscript battalions created under the Russian 488th Regiment but under FSB Command.
In Russia conscripts that do their 12 month mandatory service are not allowed to go into a foreign war so instead they were put into newly created border protection battalions to at least be of some use to the war effort.
Just so we are clear on this topic the actual fighting battalions of the 488th are still in Kremmina.
Although the border was mainly manned by Conscripts there were also FSB elements in the area as well as elements from units refitting in training bases in the rear like the 200th and 1428th
Generally the 18th Battalion was a lot more disciplined than the 17th and they were actually manning their positions.
They were holding the line from Gornal to Plekhovo
The 18th Battalion was equipped with Mortars, AGS's and some RPGs which basically made them simple Light infantry capable of holding their positions.
Although talking about discipline, the 17th battalion set a very low bar and the 18th Btn had complacency inside their positions.
The 17th Battalion was barely preparing to fight a war, they were more prepared for a nice 9 month vacation to Kursk Oblast.
The entire Battalion was mainly in 2 different positions, a big nice and comfortable bunker system near Sverdlikovo and the border post near Suzhda
They were only really doing their border patrols because it was prohibited by law not to.
In 2 days the entire battalion was encircled and as good as gone.
The defenses built by General Surovikon the previous year were barely a roadblock to the Ukrainians as no one was manning them.
The AT ditches, minefields and Dragons teeth were breached without an issue at all.
Ukraine was using its most modern UAVs and EW in the area
They destroyed most Russian ISR capabilities and limited the Russian Helicopter fleet's abilities with AA FPVs
There was a great potential for a defense in this sector, but no one was manning the concrete reinforced fortifications and the Russians just got encircled in their packed positions.
The Russian 17th Battalion was destroyed and the 18th significantly damaged as it was outflanked.
As of today the Russians are calling more and more Conscripts to Kursk as they are legally allowed to use them anywhere inside Russia
We see a lot of units like the 22nd Rgt and we believe that these units got redeployed, most of the time its Conscript Btns under their command.
The Russians have been seen creating AT Ditches in their rear, usually MDK-3 vehicles from engineering battalions are used but in this case Civilian companies with government contracts are creating field fortifications and trenches using excavators.
The funny thing is that many Job adverts have appeared in Avito(an equivalent to Ebay) about the construction of trenches in Kursk
With the general arrival of Conscripts, artillery batteries and tanks, the Russian defense is only getting stronger.
Thanks for reading.
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There won't be daily threads anymore, people who are following the situation can get what I provide pretty easily now that most of the chaos is gone but I do have some comments about the last couple days.
Quick Thread🧵
Over the last couple days reinforcements have moved into the Suzhda sector, most units of which have not been identified.
We only know that the subgroup of the 80th air assault is bigger including elements from the 82nd, 80th, 95th and 46th brigades.
The 82nd Brigade itself has been very quite and we believe the 24th Aidar Battalion has taken over most its operations.
Still other units have been spotted with Varta MRAPs, T72AVs, Otokar Cobras, M113s etc
We currently have no idea what they could be.
The 7th day(August 12th) of the Operation
Tactical Analysis
Thread🧵
Addressing some ORBAT changes first, we believe the 82nd has not been involved in fighting since Day 5
Instead the 24th Aidar Battalion is believed to have conducted the operation towards Korenevo but for now we'll leave it on the map until further information comes out.
As it's customary we need to start from Martynovka which was secured by the Ukrainians the previous day.
On day 7 the Russian 810th Marine brigade was completely dislodged from the area including the village of Mykhailovka essentially ending the battle for Martynovka.
The 6th Day of the Kursk Incursion according to open sources
Tactical Analysis
Thread🧵
As Russian reserves are arriving advancing becomes significantly harder, The fighting around Martynovka has been the hardest over the last few days with the village having changed hands multiple times.
So to start with Martynovka I have to address the ORBAT mistake I made yesterday the Marines that assaulted Martynovka are not from the 155th Brigade but from the 810th, more specifically one battalion of them has been deployed in Kursk
The 5th day of the Kursk Incursion According to open sources
Tactical Analysis
Thread🧵
August 10th or Day 5 of the operation was a relatively quite day where both sides managed to achieve some tactical gains
Overnight a Ukrainian element of the 80th Air assault brigade conducted a raid towards Anastasevka through the countryside, after being struck the group apparently retreated.
The Fourth day of the Kursk Incursion According to open sources
Tactical Analysis
Thread🧵
As of the 9th of August the Russian Intelligence perplexed by the situation on the first days and unable to properly identify enemy formations would start to be more efficient
The previous day reserves started to form up in the towns of Bol'shoe Soldatskoe and Belitsa, the Ukrainians didn't expect them to be engaged so soon instead they expected them to wait for a higher concentration but they would be proven wrong.
The Third day of the Kursk Incursion According to open sources
Tactical Analysis
Thread🧵
During such operations every minute matters and speed is of the essence. Currently Ukraine is in a race against time trying to secure their operational goals before a Russian response is possible.
During the last thread I got shuttle criticism about the fact that I don't properly cover the Russian forces, which is valid but tracking ragtag groupings formed the same day combined with troops from multiple units is not the easiest thing to do.
But I'll try to anyways.