Joni Askola Profile picture
Aug 17, 2024 9 tweets 4 min read Read on X
1/9 Day 12: The Kursk operation has restored a sense of hope, and we should not underestimate its importance during wartime. Nearly two weeks in, russia has yet to stop Ukrainians from advancing Image
2/9 russia remains unable to halt Ukraine's advances in Kursk. Ukraine is progressing in multiple directions, leaving russia struggling to find a solution to prevent this from occurring. Image
3/9 It appears that Ukraine is, as mentioned earlier, attempting to acquire territory for leverage while simultaneously establishing a buffer zone to shield its cities from russian artillery. Image
4/9 It is notable to observe the minimal resistance Ukraine encounters from local residents, who are receiving humanitarian assistance from Ukraine. This stands in stark contrast to the experience of russian troops when they occupy a city in Ukraine. Image
5/9 As Ukraine makes progress in Kursk, its forces in the east continue to face challenging circumstances, with russia gradually advancing while Ukrainian troops deal with significant manpower shortages. Image
6/9 The overall situation still presents numerous questions, but we should not overlook the significance of hope in a prolonged conflict like this. This operation has instilled hope in many Ukrainians and their supporters. Image
7/9 For a mobilized Ukrainian, witnessing the Kursk operation is more uplifting than observing the situations in Niu-York or Chasiv Yar. This operation has also demonstrated that the front lines can still change and that russia's red lines are merely a bluff. Image
8/9 Let’s hope that the remainder of this ambitious, risky, and so far highly successful operation is planned and executed with the same effectiveness as the first 12 days. Image

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More from @joni_askola

Jul 15
1/5 THREAD: Too big to be a coincidence?

On July 3rd, Putin told Trump he’d use the next 60 days to seize more Ukrainian land.

Trump just gave him exactly 60 days — from that call until his tariff deadline. 60 days of Ukrainian suffering.

A gift? Or a secret deal?Image
2/5 It’s not impossible:

During their talks, Putin said he’d use the next 60 days to advance.

What if the deal was: ”Take what you can in 60 days, then we negotiate”?

No sanctions. No real pressure. Just time — for Putin to finish the jobImage
3/5 Yes, Trump now allows US weapons sales to Ukraine. That’s good.

But he still refuses to sanction russia.

His ”50 more days” move? It’s weakness disguised as strategy — 50 days of Ukrainian death and suffering.

Putin gets time. AgainImage
Read 5 tweets
Jul 14
1/5 THREAD:

🚨 Trump just made his ”major announcements” on Ukraine & russia.

There’s good news — and deeply frustrating news.

Let’s break down what just happened 👇Image
2/5 ✅ The good: Trump will now allow Europeans to buy US weapons for Ukraine — including Patriot air defense systems and PAC interceptors.

That’s a huge step forward — especially since Europe failed to order SAMP/T batteries. Credit where it’s dueImage
3/5 ❌ The bad: Instead of finally sanctioning russia, Trump gave them 50 more days before maybe imposing 100% tariffs.

That’s meaningless. There’s barely any trade US-russia trade. He will TACO on secondary tariffs

It’s just ”2 more weeks” energy — except now it’s 7 more weeksImage
Read 5 tweets
Jul 14
1/7 THREAD: Finally?

🚨 Trump is expected to make a major announcement today on russia & Ukraine.

Rumors are flying: JASSM cruise missiles, sanctions, air defense, frozen assets, NATO coordination.

Is this a real turning point — or just another twist in the chaos?Image
2/7 Among the whispers:

- Long-range strike capabilities (possibly JASSM)
- Use of frozen russian assets
- Patriot batteries and PAC interceptors paid by NATO countries
- New sanctions on russia

Nothing confirmed — but stakes are highImage
3/7 If true, this would mark a massive shift.

Trump has long been soft on russia and hostile to Ukraine.

A pivot now would be a huge strategic failure for Putin — he may have lost his most important ally in the West — at least for nowImage
Read 7 tweets
Jul 12
1/9 THREAD: The worst leader in history?

The only man capable of turning Europe’s hibernating coalition of the unwilling into a coalition of the willing? Putin.

He overreached, launched a war he’s losing — and now he’s fumbling a golden chance to save russia. Arrogance kills 👇Image
2/9 Did Putin fumble again?

It sure looks like it.

russia is strategically losing in Ukraine. But it had a golden opportunity to save itself — thanks to Trump’s return and Europe’s inertia.

And yet… Putin blew itImage
3/9 russia has suffered over 1 million total casualties, failed to capture any of Ukraine’s 23 regional capital and special status cities, and is nowhere near its strategic goals. It’s bleeding.

But traitors and geopolitics handed Putin a lifeline — he arrogantly tossed it asideImage
Read 9 tweets
Jul 11
1/7 THREAD: russia’s economy isn’t fine.

It’s fragile, unsustainable, and cracking under the weight of war.

Just because it’s not constantly in the headlines doesn’t mean it’s healthy. Here’s what’s really going on 👇Image
2/7 russia is battling high inflation, a labor shortage, and crippling interest rates.

Its key interest rate jumped from 7.5% in June 2023 to 21%, and still sits at 20%.

That’s not stability. That’s survival modeImage
3/7 A 20% key interest rate with low or no growth and high inflation is a disaster.

The only reason russia isn’t in a deep recession is because of massive war spending.

Without it, the economy would be shrinking fastImage
Read 7 tweets
Jul 11
1/5 THREAD: Is Europe finally waking up?

There are promising signs — but let’s not hold our breath just yet.

Here’s what’s happening, and what still needs to happen 👇Image
2/5 France and the UK are finally restarting the production of SCALP/Storm Shadow cruise missiles.

Merz says ”the time for diplomacy with russia is over.”

And Berlin is close to convincing Trump to allow US arms sales to Ukraine — financed by NATO countries. That would be big! Image
3/5 Germany is also stepping up to finance Ukraine’s long-range strike capabilities. It’s a shift.

But we’ve seen hopeful moments before — only to watch them fizzle.

Europe must understand: this war won’t end by hoping it will Image
Read 5 tweets

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