Thread by @Ars_Faivre

A few thoughts about the #Kursk offensive.
I took interest into the border between Ulanove #Ukraine (95km N of Soumy) and Kolotilovka #Russia (45 km SE of Soumy).
The official border here is 300 km.
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If Ukraine can secure a frontline behind the Amon'ka, Seym, Psel and Ilek rivers, it could reduce the frontline lenght by 40% (around 180 km).
Ukrainians must take control of Rylsk, Korenovo, Soudja, Belitsa, Belaya, Ilek and Kolotilovka. Part of it is already achieved.
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Most important, the frontline East of Soumy (from Ulanok to Kolotilovka) could be 80% behind rivers and offers a buffer zone of 10 to 25km. In the Northern part of the new front, 40% of the line would be behind rivers and creates another buffer zone of +-25km.
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If Korenovo falls, the entire part South of the Seym river will fall. If this part falls, the lands North of the Seym river will also fall fast, as it would be surrounded from 3 sides by ZSU & the only exits would be two 9km corridors NE once the bridge in Rylsk is destroyed.
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Before the Ukrainian offensive, this part of the border was a frontline only for Ukraine, as it could threaten Soumy. Now, it is also a frontline for Russia.
Before, the Russians could have only a few thousands conscripts & FSB, now they will have to man the entire region.
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In the same time, Ukrainians will be able to reduce very significatively their presence there thanks to a shorter frontline with natural obstacles. The Shoumy problem will be solved for a long time.
So, I think this #KurskOffensive was a very smart move.
#SlavaUkraïni
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