1/ Russian conscripts are now fighting, dying and being captured in large numbers in Ukraine's Kursk offensive. As this is the first time that conscripts have been a significant factor in the war, let's look at who the conscripts are and why so many have surrendered. ⬇️
2/ Russia's armed forces are currently made up of four principal groupings: professional ("contract") soldiers, who join voluntarily; mobilised soldiers ("mobiks"), recruited compulsorily; convicts, who sign up in exchange for a pardon; and conscripts, who serve for one year.
3/ Mobiks differ from conscripts in that they are principally older men (and sometimes women) in Russia's reserves who have previously served in the armed forces as contract soldiers or as conscripts. There were estimated to be around 2 million people in this category.
4/ All males from 18-30 are subject to conscription, with all three parts of the Russian armed forces (army, navy and air force) taking conscripts. Exceptions are made for health and other reasons. Evading conscription is punishable with up to 18 months of imprisonment.
5/ Conscription is very undesirable (for reasons which we'll cover shortly). As many as 70% of those eligible for conscription buy their way out of it by bribing a doctor or recruiting officer. The 'fee' was reportedly between $5,000-$10,000 in 2007.
6/ This drastically skews the demographics of conscription, with the armed forces being left with the poorest and least healthy men to serve as conscripts. This leaves the Russian military with chronic problems of fitness and efficiency.
7/ In 2007, the Russian Air Force reported that 30 percent of the 11,000 men it conscripted annually were "mentally unstable," 10 percent suffered from alcohol and drug abuse, and 15 percent were ill or malnourished.
8/ Conscripts are paid a pittance – those currently fighting in Kursk are reportedly being paid $0.75 a day – and as the lowest-ranking soldiers, they are ruthlessly exploited by those above them. This includes older soldiers (dyedi or 'grandfathers') and officers.
9/ For decades, conscripts have been subject to extreme and often lethal forms of hazing and abuse, known as 'dedovshchina' (literally 'reign of the grandfathers'). In 2006, at least 292 Russian soldiers were killed by dedovshchina. 341 soldiers died by suicide in 2007.
10/ This has occasionally led to lethal retaliation. In October 2019, 20-year-old conscript Ramil Shamsutdinov shot 10 of his colleagues, killing 8 of them, after being forced to stay awake for days at a time and suffering other forms of abuse. Such torture is frequent.
11/ One video shows a young soldier stripped, beaten and then repeatedly pushed, face down, into a toilet. Later, he is show with new iron burns over his back. His tormentors urinate on him. In 2005, a conscript had to have his legs and genitals amputated after being tortured.
12/ Other forms of abuse include doing unpaid labour, being made to sell blood to earn money for the abusers, or being forced into prostitution. Conscripts in St Petersburg were forced by the dyedi to perform sexual services for influential middle-aged clients or face torture.
13/ Conscripts receive little or no military training, making them of little use as a fighting force. The mothers of conscripts in the Kursk region have complained that instead of getting any training, their sons were simply used as labour – carrying shells or digging trenches.
14/ A fairly common form of corruption among officers is to use conscripts as unpaid labour to build or maintain their dachas (holiday homes), or hiring them out to businessmen work in building sites, fields or factories – for which the conscripts get no compensation.
15/ Russian law forbids conscripts from fighting abroad, but officers have found ways around this. During the Ukraine war, officers have forced conscripts to sign contracts against their wishes by beating them until they gave in.
16/ One officer recalled what he was told by another officer who forcibly recruited conscripts: "Our officers 'reeled in' guys who were conscripted. The officer says before lights out, we have to 'give birth to a contract soldier', and asks who wants to sign a contract.
17/ Nobody wants to, and the guys start swinging until somebody gives up and signs it."
Similarly, conscripts in the Kursk region have reportedly been threatened with being sent to a penal battalion for 7 years unless they sign a contract.
18/ Even without the abuse, conscripts face terrible living conditions. In the Russian Navy's training centre located in Lomonosov, Leningrad Region, conscripts reportedly faced worse conditions than convicts and had to live in abandoned barracks buildings.
19/ "The guys were shoved into an abandoned part where there is no canteen. Imported food is disgusting. There is no hot water. There is mould, dampness and one dryer for 180 people in the barracks."
20/ "Drying socks on radiators is not allowed, everyone wears wet clothes and gets sick. At the same time, there are no medicines, and the paramedic gives only soda and salt to gargle."
21/ Engineering conscripts in Volgograd faced similar conditions: "There are no elementary medicines in the unit's medical centre, and what parents bring must be hidden from the officers (if it is not taken away immediately after receiving the package)."
22/ The collapse of Russia's defences in Kursk is no surprise, as something very similar happened in the Graivoron district of the Belgorod region when the Russian Volunteer Corps briefly invaded in May 2023. It was guarded only by 23 conscripts with one officer and one mobik.
23/ The defenders were routed almost immediately. According to the conscripts, they were not even given brushes and liquids to clean their rifles, radios and other equipment. Those serving on the border were given rifles but no ammunition.
24/ Their mothers said that in six months of service, the conscripts only went to the firing range once or twice, while their commanders submitted false reports about daily training. The men were assigned to military professions that did not correspond to their training.
25/ One conscript was made a medic, although he "didn't even know what aspirin and No-Spa [drotaverine] were for". Others were given old grenade launchers and mortars but no training to fire them. Some were not even trained to use their rifles.
26/ Some of the conscripts were not even given food or water by the army. One conscript told his girlfriend that "they were eating earth there. I laughed and then realised it was no joke." Volunteers and parents brought them fresh clothes and food, which they cooked themselves.
27/ The conscripts said they were treated badly by their commanders, who made parents feed them as well the conscripts. According to a girlfriend, the officers "drink and get violent", and take out their frustrations on the conscripts under their command.
28/ The men were in place for months, despite repeatedly having been promised they would be rotated out or withdrawn. This didn't happen, despite appeals to the authorities by their mothers. Many became ill and some contracted pneumonia in the cold, damp dugouts.
29/ Not surprisingly, morale was low even before the attack. One mother says: "At first the boys had an adventure. Then there was the expectation that they would be relieved, they were promised. And now there is devastation. They feel betrayed and abandoned."
30/ Given that these issues were publicised by Russian outlets, the Ukrainians certainly know about them. It's no surprise that when they attacked in Kursk, resistance appears to have collapsed quickly and conscripts surrendered in large numbers. /end
1/ Five years into the full-scale war in Ukraine, the Russian army appears to be exhausted and in low morale. An account from a serving Russian soldier at the front line highlights the current mood of dejection and frustration with incompetent commanders. ⬇️
2/ 'Combat Reserve' writes:
"We'll all be going home, it's just not entirely clear in what condition.
The Vostok group's officer ranks are depleted, a leg was blown off—he went home. If he's lucky, he'll get a mortgage or a certificate."
3/ "Everything's awesome, but the general fatigue is taking a toll on the morale and willpower of the personnel. Everyone’s so fed up with it all that the thought of going on leave—even if it means stepping on a felt-tip pen—constantly pops into the soldiers’ heads.
1/ In possibly the most predictable outcome ever, a Russian former soldier who made a video appealing to Vladimir Putin to meet with him to avert an army rebellion over abuses on the front line has been jailed for "propagating extremist symbols". ⬇️
2/ As reported in the thread below, 39-year-old Alexander Lunin recorded an instantly viral video appeal to Putin last week in which he denounced the abusive behaviour of frontline commanders and asked for a meeting with Putin in Moscow.
3/ On 26 June, he set off for Moscow by car after recording a new video claiming that a pro-Putin lawyer had invited him to the capital for discussions. He has not been seen or heard from publicly since.
1/ Vladimir Putin's speech to the United Russia Party Congress on 28 June has received a frosty reception online from Russian Telegram commentators and users. The most commonly used reaction emoji used by readers of related posts is a clown 🤡, while bloggers are sceptical. ⬇️
2/ While many warbloggers have reported the speech neutrally, some are openly hostile – a sign of increasing antagonism towards the regime from parts of the warblogger community, who feel that it isn't doing enough to win the war.
3/ 'Novorossiya Militia Reports' notes the party's adoption of "a controversial campaign poster [shown above] at the congress titled 'Being For Putin is a basic minimum', which is already being used in election campaigns in the regions".
1/ In another sign of worsening economic problems in Russia, a fifth of the fleets of the country's largest airlines have been taken out of operation. The idling of the aircraft has been blamed on equipment failures and extended maintenance incurred by the effect of sanctions. ⬇️
2/ The Russian newspaper Kommersant reports that almost a third of the fleet – 93 out of 322 aircraft – is now idle at the eight largest carriers. This breaks down as follows for the top five airlines:
3/✈️ Aeroflot – 37 out of 349 aircraft are out of service
✈️ S7 Airlines – 33 out of 104 (about a third of the fleet)
✈️ Ural Airlines – 10 out of 51
✈️ Nordwind Airlines – 12 out of 27 (44%)
✈️ Azur Air – 17 out of 23 aircraft (74%)
1/ Russia's ongoing fuel crisis will soon lead to impacts far worse than queues at gas stations, warns a Russian warblogger. A logistical crisis is predicted, accompanied by shortages of raw materials and goods, along with soaring inflation. ⬇️
2/ Russia's huge size means that logistics drivers have to travel great distances between pickup and delivery points. With fuel increasingly being rationed, their ability to do this is being curtailed. 'Intelligence Diary' writes:
3/ "One of the less obvious consequences of the crisis: trucks are waiting in line at gas stations, getting 200 litres of fuel, which is enough for about 300-500 kilometers, depending on the road and the load. That's roughly six hours on average.
1/ President Alexander Lukashenko's unscheduled two-day meeting with Vladimir Putin is attracting interest and speculation from Russian commentators. Unusually, there has been no official comment about what was discussed, nor even a photo of the two leaders meeting. ⬇️
2/ Alexey Zhivov notes:
"No information about the meeting between the two presidents has been released to the press. Not a single comment or photo.
3/ "Obviously, the negotiations were urgent, went poorly, and the final decisions will be made after Lukashenko consults with Xi Jinping.
It's likely that China plays a much greater role in the Ukrainian conflict than it appears from the outside. What is that role?