Thread by @RAbdiAnalyst

Gaming an Ethiopia-Egypt war (a thread)

Egypt cannot conduct direct warfare with Ethiopia. It doesn’t share a border with Horn state.

To do that will require investment in aircraft careers, long-range expeditionary strike capabilities.

Its helicopter career fleet expanding.

Egyptian Navy warships capable of carrying and delivering ballistic short and medium range missiles. To threaten Ethiopia its small fleet of submarines and frigates will need to move close to the Bab el-Mandeb (this explains why Egypt angered by the Ethiopia-Somaliland MoU)

Four states with borders with Ethiopia are crucial for Egyptian military planners and strategists – Sudan, S/Sudan, Eritrea and Somalia.

Al-Sisi has pursued an encirclement strategy targeting these states cutting defence deals with states on the Nile Basin.

Egypt deployed its long-range bombers and fighters in Wad Sayidnah, north of Khartoum, but pulled out its troops when war erupted in Sudan in 2023.

It also maintains personnel and close defence cooperation with Eritrea.

Egypt recently signed a deal with Djibouti to build a logistics hub that could be crucial for ships and aircraft.

Somalia is ideal for Egypt. It has a long border with Ethiopia and a large coastline. Obtaining a military base and deploying fighter bombers and other lethal assets could put Ethiopia in a real difficult spot.

Somalia highly likely to become theatre for Egyptian-Ethiopian confrontation.

Egyptian threat on its eastern flank may impel Ethiopia to start a pre-emptive war – invade Somalia and dislodge government in Mogadishu.

A repeat of the Dec 2006 scenario highly plausible.

*carriers*