Thread by @DovWaxman

Israel and Hezbollah are now on the brink of a full-scale war. Here’s my explainer of why they got to this point and what could happen in the coming weeks. A thread:

1. On Oct 8—one day after the Hamas-led surprise attack in southern Israel—Hezbollah initiated a low-intensity war of attrition against Israel. It did so with Iran’s blessing, because Hezbollah and Iran wanted to help their ally, Hamas. The hope was that by opening a second front with Israel, the IDF would have to divert some of its limited manpower to Israel’s northern border. Tying down Israeli forces in the north was seen as a way of preventing Hamas’s military defeat.

2. The war of attrition that Hezbollah launched has failed to prevent Hamas’s military defeat, but it has driven over 60,000 Israeli civilians from their homes in northern Israel and even more Lebanese civilians from their homes in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah has sustained many more losses than Israel, including the killing of its military chief of staff, but it refuses to stop the war until there is a ceasefire in Gaza. Hezbollah hopes that its attacks will pressure Israel to accept a ceasefire in Gaza on terms that are acceptable to Hamas.

3. The ongoing displacement of masses of Israeli civilians from northern Israel has put growing pressure on the Israeli government. In response to this public pressure, the Israeli government has recently declared that returning Israeli civilians to the north is now one of its war goals.

4. The return of Israeli civilians en masse will only happen if Hezbollah stops firing rockets into northern Israel and withdraws its soldiers from the border area. The US and France have spent months trying to achieve a diplomatic agreement that would accomplish this, but they have been unsuccessful. It is in Iran’s interest to keep the war of attrition going for as long as possible, and Hezbollah answers to Iran (whether or not you call it an Iranian “proxy”).

5. Israel’s latest strikes against Hezbollah—exploding pages and walkie-talkies—are aimed at compelling Hezbollah to accept a ceasefire and withdraw from the border or forcing it to respond militarily, thereby giving Israel the justification for launching a full-scale war against Hezbollah.

6. Although a full-scale war will be very costly for Israel, it is seen as preferable to the ongoing war of attrition because it would enable Israel to inflict a heavy blow against Hezbollah and, by extension, Iran. Neither Hezbollah nor Iran wants a full-scale war because of the risks this poses to Hezbollah and, by extension, Iran. If Israel is able to seriously degrade Hezbollah’s military capability, this would effectively weaken Iran in its ongoing confrontation with Israel (and potentially facilitate an Israeli attack against Iran’s nuclear facilities since Israel wouldn’t have to worry about Hezbollah’s response).

7. In a speech today, Hezbollah’s leader made it clear that it will continue firing rockets into Israel until there’s a ceasefire in Gaza. Since the prospects for a ceasefire-hostage deal to end the war in Gaza are now very slim, it seems very likely that the low-intensity war between Hezbollah and Israel will escalate into a full-scale war. The fact that the war in Gaza is winding down allows the IDF to focus its attention and more of its manpower and resources on fighting Hezbollah.

8. Since the last war between Israel and Hezbollah ended inconclusively in 2006, the IDF has been preparing for another war with Hezbollah. Its strategy and tactics are likely to be very different than those in 2006 (which were widely criticized in Israel at the time). One example of this innovation in tactics were the exploding pages, which were likely intended to be the opening act in a full-scale war. Strategically, the IDF is more likely to specifically target Hezbollah than Lebanese infrastructure (which it targeted in 2006).

9. If a full-scale war between Hezbollah and Israel does break out, then Iran will probably intervene directly if Hezbollah is on the verge of defeat. If Iran gets involved in the war in order to save its asset, Hezbollah, then the U.S. will also get directly involved to protect Israel. A full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah, therefore, could well draw in Iran and the US and become a region-wide war (with the Houthis and Iranian-allied militias in Iraq and Syria also involved).

10. This is the nightmare scenario that the Biden administration has been trying to avoid since the beginning of the war in Gaza. To make matters worse for the Biden administration, this could all happen in the weeks before the U.S. presidential election, which would probably help Trump.