Thread by @DetlefGuertler

#Sinwar’s last trap
How #Israel fell for it.
And how we all may get out of it.

It will take some posts to get to the solution (a happy-end for the whole #MiddleEast), but, promise, it won’t be boring.
1/n

Something weird is happening out there right now. Within 24 hours of his death, #Hamas leader and #Oct7 mastermind Yahya #Sinwar has become a hero, a modern-day Che #Guevara. And no end in sight, quite the contrary.
2/n

You can call it as bluntly as the US-Israeli Shaiel Ben-Ephraim, @academic_la: “Why is my timeline filled with Sinwar worship? What the fuck.”

3/n

https://x.com/academic_la/status/1847485545305559428

Or a bit more polite as the UK-Palestinian Ghanem Nuseibeh @gnuseibeh puts it: “It doesn’t matter what I or the West or moderate Muslims say about Sinwar. What matters is the Arab street and he has turned into a hero.”

4/n

https://x.com/gnuseibeh/status/1847381338317607384

@gnuseibeh If you’re by chance not a regular passer-by on the Arab street (neither am I), just take a look at this “Don’t tell me about #Guevara” picture, and scroll down…

5/n

https://x.com/NAlahdb/status/1847264914244518348

Sure, when terrorists get killed they’re praised as martyrs. But such adoration did not happen when Nasrallah was killed in his bunker; not when Haniyeh was killed in a guesthouse bed; not when Bin Laden was killed in his hideaway; not when Al-Baghdadi was killed in a tunnel.
6/n

What’s the difference? Easy: #Sinwar was killed on the battlefield. He fought till his last breath. Having already lost one hand, he threw a stick at a drone. And he still kept a grenade on his lap, for a last close combat (that #Israel prevented).
7/n

That’s the stuff legends are made of. And Israel tremendously helped to tell and spread that story by releasing the drone video and other footage of Sinwar’s last fight.
(no need to show it here, you all know it)
8/n

Let’s postpone for a moment why Israel allowed these releases. Let’s look at what Sinwar did and why he did it.
(tl;dr: He built a trap, once again, to turn the immense firepower of his enemy Israel against itself, kind of #Gaza-Aikido)
9/n

At least the events that led to Sinwar’s death make it highly probable that it was a deliberate action, a path chosen by Sinwar himself. To quote @muhammadshehad2: “The IDF didn’t find Sinwar. Sinwar found them.”

10/n

https://x.com/muhammadshehad2/status/1847301193514594796

Sinwar and his companions on that street in #Rafah, out in the open, started a fight against IDF soldiers. And of course they knew that there was no way to get out of that combat alive.
11/n

So IMHO it’s legit to assume that whatever Simwar did on his last day, whatever weapons or papers or stuff he had with him should either serve for the fight – or for building legends after the fight.
12/n

Of course he did not know that the IDF would be so kind to release the video footage of his fight. But he knew it would be highly probable that the dead Sinwar would be presented publicly by Israel – as proof and as a trophy. Video was a bonus.
13/n

AFAIK, what we see on these 2 pictures shared by @naksbilal is the whole stuff Sinwar had with him when he died. Weapons, Mentos, chewing-gum, some money, small tools, praying stuff, a bullet and a passport (not his).

14/n

https://x.com/NaksBilal/status/1846982430819078559

The praying tools are necessary to preserve the jihadist image. The bullet may hide a story we don’t know yet – or provide room for hero-storytelling. #Mentos could be meant as a cheap object for simple adoration: I’d expect Mentos sales to skyrocket in the Middle East.
15/n

And the passport?? A long expired passport of an #UNRWA teacher? Maybe he chose it to ridicule the hasbarists. They would immediately swallow the UNRWA bait - though there is really no connection in this case. (rather simple trolling, no?)
16/n

And, even more stupid: Hasbarists would rejoice that Sinwar tried to flee Gaza (with a passport? Now? Lol). And that’s exactly what happened…

17/n

https://x.com/MAHRs_X/status/1847336187700158738

Granted, this may sound like overmystifying a villain. Yes, possible. But up to now, Israel (and the West) have erred far, far more to the other side and underestimated Sinwar:
18/n

No one expected #Oct7, no one expected that Sinwar would stay alive and undetected after one year of never-ending attacks and efforts, and now no-one expected that HE would decide when to fight the last fight, and not IDF or Shin Bet.
19/n

So better to see this as a (more or less) planned event, where Sinwar also calculated the reactions of his enemy. And he REALLY knew quite a lot about that. Sinwar studied Israel extensively during two decades in prison.
20/n

Sinwar must have known into which traps #Netanyahu, IDF, Israel's media and people might fall. And he also seemed to know a thing or two about the reactions of the Arab people, as the current development shows.
21/n

So, what to do?
Trying to change the Guevara narrative?
That’s like trying to put the toothpaste back into the tube. No way. The only thing that might help is not putting more fuel into the fire.
22/n

So if Sinwar REALLY had drawings made by his ten-year-old son that showed dead IDF soldiers (like @academic_la posted), it would be wise not to publish them – as they’d tell the story of handing over the torch of resistance to the next generation.

23/n

https://x.com/academic_la/status/1847327224808296474

So what is the outcome of that self-propelled heroization of Yahya Sinwar? Here (Usual caveats apply, hugely fluid and dynamic situation, ongoing conflict, everything can happen, etc. But) my best guess right now:
24/n

As @gnuseibeh said, the first wave has hit the Arab street. They now don’t just have one more martyr, but one warrior idol. This may trigger some youngsters to follow his example. That can lead to a next wave: The roaring on the Arab street can force US' Arab allies to act.
25/n

@gnuseibeh Already in August, Saudi crown prince MbS was quoted by Politico: “The street throughout the Middle East cares deeply about Palestine, and my tenure will not be secure if I don’t address what is the most pressing issue of justice in our region.”

26/npolitico.com/news/magazine/…

@gnuseibeh And that’s of course not just a problem of Saudi Arabia – it’s also the case for #Egypt, for #Jordan, for all of North Africa and the Gulf states. For all of its streets, and for all of its rulers.
27/n

So with a major rise of unrest in the Arab street, lots of rulers risk to lose their power (and their life), if they keep sitting on their hands and waiting for the #Gaza war to end somehow and somewhen. They would have to DO something to end it.
28/n

This something would probably be: forcing the USA to act. By boycotts or sanctions, turning to #Russia,to #China, whatever. Biden and Blinken seem to have promised the Arabs that they would reign in Israel and guide it towards peace and cooperation, but they never delivered.
29/n

Kicking the can down the road has worked until now. But if the Arabs want to save themselves, they have to demand that the US keep their promise, and now.
Or else.
30/n

And this would mean: The USA forces Israel to act. Ceasefire, end of war, IDF back to Israel, opening the path to a Palestinian state, #Olmert-#Kidwa plan or Arab Peace Initiative or whatever, and not somewhere down the road, but now.

31/nwashingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/…

If things really get traction (and sometimes in history, those things happen), all of this could happen even before the US election.
(In this case, #Harris should win if the US are the driver of that process, and #Trump will win if the Arabs are the driving force.)
32/n

Yes Yes – this outcome is wildly overoptimistic. But I don’t think it’s impossible. And it can bring the ironic twist to Sinwar’s death that by sacrificing himself he reaches the survival of Gaza and the creation of Palestine.
A Thermopylae moment…

33/33en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of…