Thread by @NafeezAhmed

🧵As a scholar of the systems behind genocidal violence, who's accurately forecasted major events (from 2008 crash to mainstreaming of far-right), I believe the Musk-Trump economic plan is a blueprint for total social, political & economic collapse /1 bylinetimes.com/2024/11/01/ame…

This is putting it mildly. What I set out in this analysis will be seen by the usual suspects as needlessly alarmist. It is not. The Musk-Trump plan represents the movement of the Republican Party into the early stages of genocidal radicalisation. The plan entails key components directly reminiscent of Nazi Germany in the early 1930s. This does NOT mean 'all Republicans are Nazis' or something so crude, but that the party is following a similar trajectory. We ignore this at our peril. I'm going to break this down. 👇/2

I apply a rigorous systems lens to the Musk-Trump economic plan. It would set the US up for a shocking convergence of economic calamity and exclusionary violence reminiscent of the worst genocides of the twentieth century /3 bylinetimes.com/2024/11/01/ame…

The Musk-Trump plan contains three key ideas: 1. Of course, there's the Project 2025 plan to gut and reengineer the entire federal govt. 2. Mass deportation of up to 20 million undocumented immigrants. 3. Gut $2 trillion from the federal budget /4

I analysed points 2 and 3 in detail to explore the social, economic and (geo)political consequences of actually implementing this plan. To be sure, it's not really a viable plan. But even attempting to execute it would wreak total havoc /5

Taking into account the systemic knock-on effects on multiple industries and sectors, mass deportations of 20 million undocumented migrants (real number is likely about half) combined with slashing 2 trillion budget would destroy 25% of US GDP /6 bylinetimes.com/2024/11/01/ame…

This is conservative. Conventional estimates are bad enough, but they fail to account for cascading effects of this sort of dismembering of the US economy. The real impact would probably be higher. This amounts total economic collapse, worse than the Great Depression /7

The Musk-Trump deportation plan represents an industrial-scale national programme whose only real antecedent is Nazi Germany. It would require a national network of mass detention camps, and mechanisms of mass deportation. In the 1930s, as Hitler came to power, he wanted to deport Jews for economic productivity. Only later he adopted a final solution to exterminate them on Nazi territory when mass deportation was impossible due to British and Soviet resistance. Think about this carefully. This is a proposal to create ethnically-targeted concentration camps and ethnic cleansing routes. /8

Let's not forget that Musk has already endorsed the idea that the migrant 'problem' is an affliction of "hordes of minorities" against the 'white race' (orchestrated by "Western Jews"), an idea that Musk describes as "absolute truth" /9

https://x.com/breakingbaht/status/1724892505647296620

I should point out that the key reason this quasi-genocidal idea would have such a colossal economic fallout is that undocumented migrants create new US jobs, pay taxes and contribute billions to the American economy - documented by legions of studies /10 newamericaneconomy.org/issues/undocum…

The risk of mass deportation radicalising into genocidal violence is high. This is because genocides occur in the context of exclusionary dehumanising ideologies combined with social crisis. Hitler resorted to a final solution when he could not deport the Jews. As the Musk-Trump economic plan will intensify, not solve, economic crisis, the risk that a radicalised Trump regime might consider resorting to intensified violence to solve its alleged migrant problem is all too real. /11

These scenarios cannot be clearly explored if we are looking in a silo-ed fashion. The total collapse of the American economy amidst the huge violence already involved in a mass deportation programme would spark unprecedented national civil unrest across the United states /12

Massive civil unrest would provoke and unleash massive state violence - for which the Trump campaign and Project 2025 brigade is already fully prepared using invocations of the Insurrection Act, to justify deployment of military violence at home /13

In the context of such unprecedented domestic civil violence, the risk of escalatory mass violence toward ethnic groups - in particular against undocumented migrants - would be greatly amplified. /14

We are talking about full-scale collapse of American society as we know it. Not only dismantlement and reengineering of the federal govt into an autocratic militarised-security regime, but the total gutting of the economy. This is the Musk-Trump plan /15 bylinetimes.com/2024/11/01/ame…

While a lot of idiots might be forgiven for being genuinely stupid enough to buy into the propaganda, what about Trump or Musk themselves? Why would they want to destroy the American republic in this way? Among the many explanations, one should be considered: Putin /16

Trump has reportedly had direct contact with Putin. It's Bob Woodward who has uncovered this - not a swivel-eyed tinfoiler /17 bbc.co.uk/news/articles/…

Musk has reportedly been in regular contact with Putin for two years. Even the chief of NASA is concerned. But this sort of brazen entryism is so bizarre that the US natsec community has no idea how to respond /18 theguardian.com/technology/202…

The Musk-Trump economic plan aligns nicely with the geopolitical vision of Putin advisor Alexander Dugin, who sees the collapse and control of America as precursor to smashing NATO, the EU, fracturing world order into a 'multipolar' patchwork of techno-authoritarian regimes /19

The Musk-Trump plan is part of a network war aimed at tearing down the entire infrastructure of American democracy. We should stop underestimating the risks, and start waking up to who is fighting this war and why /END bylinetimes.com/2024/11/01/ame…