Paul Kedrosky Profile picture
Nov 1 3 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Apropos the tragic Valencia flooding, it is worth noting the role that channelizing and re-routing the Turia River played here. After terrible floods in 1957, the Turia was, over more than a decade, and in a massive engineering project, re-routed south of the city. Its former course became sunken gardens (see attached figure of the former and new course).Image
The recent floods, as a result, followed the post-1957 channelized course, as you can see in the attached animation (via @WxNB_). Two implications can be drawn, one hydrological, one human.

1. Planners thought the city would grow north and west post-rerouting, but it largely grew south, straddling the new Turia course, increasing risk in the event of any future flooding.

2/ Channelized rivers have many consequences, one of which is they flow faster, like a smoothed bobsled run, increasingly the flooding risk downstream as more water gets there faster, which happened here.
The scale of the current tragedy continues to grow, but it is worth considering complexity and the second- and third-order consequences of the original decision to re-route the Turia south of Valencia. There are no good answers, of course, but there are always more questions.

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More from @pkedrosky

Aug 11, 2023
New meta-analysis out confirming that even modest numbers of steps are protective wrt cardiovascular health. It only takes as few as ~2,300 steps a day to make a difference.
As @hjluks and I were just discussing over text, it is important to celebrate people getting out even once or twice a day and moving, given how little the average person moves on a daily basis.
As Howard likes to remind me, people like us are anomalies in how much we move around. You can see that in my step count over the last week, which is often ... sizable, given all my running about. Image
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Unlike our work, it does not get into under/over production effects, specifically how little productivity there is to be unlocked in some areas, versus how much can be unlocked in others, like software itself, which has been underproduced for decades.
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I got a notice that a service to which I had subscribed and forgotten was recently renewed, which led to me canceling it. And my general rule is that I always have to cancel two services if I cancel one, so I gleefully just ended a second subscription. Hugely satisfying.
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And, as ever, this reminds me that I should unsubscribe to Sirius, which usually causes them to drop the price to near zero. We'll see how that goes.
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On the California Sierra Nevada snow situation, saw a note from a major snow removal contractor today pleading with second homeowners to not come, given they can no longer blow snow high enough to clear 30-40-foot snowbanks along driveways and guarantee home access.
This is exactly the kind of "long emergency" with which humans cope poorly, as opposed to a hurricane, where bad things happen, and then the storm moves on. Risk is piling on risk in mountain communities, and at this point many should be cordoned off or evacuated. #xp
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Feb 18, 2023
Early morning skate-skiing around frozen lakes in the alpine this morning. Lovely and quiet, but brutal aerobic effort. Going from sea level to 8,500 feet and then skating some miles is ... work.
Pic and elevation
Btw, those dead trees are from volcanic C02 outgassing events, which come and go in this location, with disastrous tree consequences.
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