Ron Butler Profile picture
Dec 2, 2024 6 tweets 2 min read Read on X
The Great Toronto Condo Crash Gathers Momentum

The stories of losses on Pre-construction sub 500 sqft Dog Crate Condos & even on slightly larger 600+ sqft units just keep on coming

The same themes but different problems & really bad outcomes

More details are emerging

2/
A new twist is the difficulty in securing normal mortgages to close on these wildly overpriced units

In a great G&M piece this morning #rachelleyounglai describes an 8.3% mortgage rate on a $410K mortgage producing a $4200 payment including mortgage, condo fees & taxes

3/
The Buyers were turned down by their bank and were forced to take a huge mortgage rate

Rent on the unit is $2400 they lose $1800 every month

Or they could sell for a $75K loss, this Pre-Con unit was bought in 2018 & closed last January

A true financial disaster

4/
To make matters worse another Pre-Con unit closed in May & they lose $3050 per month on that one

Absolutely devastating losses that are hard to escape

@JohnPasalis had a great post this weekend

Toronto Pre-Con Condos became wildly miss priced 6 years ago

And no one cared

5/
People just kept on buying with a ridiculously false belief rents would increase massively & mortgage rates would be 2.49% forever

Buyers would snap up Pre-Con Condos at $1250 per sqft when Re-Sale Condos across the street were offered at $825 per sqft

WTF? It made no sense

6/
But here's a common feature: most of them minted money on previous transactions

The couple taking nearly $6K a month losses made a $500K profit on a 2013 unit they sold in 2022

They were Rental Condo Investors who really BELIEVED

Not anymore

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More from @ronmortgageguy

Apr 17
Peak Fuckery: Parents Who Took Out HELOCS & Mortgages To Provide Down Payments For Kids To Buy Homes In 2021 Now In Power Of Sale

Sounds crazy right? And it's not thousands of parents but it is happening right now in Ontario to some Seniors

It's tragedy & it's not fixable

2/
Think back to 2021: Real Estate was going crazy

Many RE Agents actually suggested if people didn't buy homes at sky high prices that they would be shut out of ever owning a home

Many Realtors suggested 10% or higher price increases FOREVER

Because Immigration, Blah Blah

3/
During this time of peak FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) some parents of adult children believed the hype

After all, the parents own homes had increased in value astronomically in 20 years

They wanted their kids to have the same benefits

A few parents didn't have cash to give

4/
Read 6 tweets
Apr 10
Canadian Rents Have Gone Down 18 STRAIGHT MONTHS & More New Construction Rental Supply Is Coming Than Ever Before In History

Yeah, Mom & Pop Landlords who bought units in the last 6 years knew things were bad

But in some Canadian cities we're headed for Landlord HELL

2/
Not even kidding

If you bought a Pre-Con Condo in 2020 - 2022 in Toronto or Vancouver you were already in big trouble on Price

You paid way too much

But if you managed to close you were faced with big Negative Cash Flow

Which is bad: but it's going to get WORSE

3/
It's a Perfect Storm of Landlord destruction in some big Canadian Metro Areas

- Every Year Expenses RISE: Condo / Strata Maintenance Fees & Property Tax increase every year

- With CMHC support there has NEVER been as many new Multi-family Purpose Built Rentals coming

4/
Read 6 tweets
Apr 9
Conservatives Members Of Parliament Crossing The Floor To Become Liberals: Those MPs Were BOUGHT

I don't think we can end Floor Crossings because it's just too hard, it's almost a Constitutional change

But look at WHY people elected to represent one party switch parties

2/
It's because they're BRIBED to do it

Not bribed with money, bribed with Perks, bribed with quiet promises of future higher paying positions in Parliament, bribed with assurance of Party Support in the next election, bribed with Polling numbers that favor the Liberals

3/
And the reason these very small time bribes work is twofold

1) Loyalty to a Party is dying in Canadian politics
2) Some Back Bench MPs are pretty small, shitty people, total opportunitists

Real Party loyalty started dying in the 90's

Too many people became transactional

4/
Read 6 tweets
Mar 31
How Bad Is It That Canada's Economy Is Completely Dependent On Tax Policy?

Canada has gone down such a wrong road

Yesterday an announcement changing a Tax Policy was done to save the Residential Construction Industry

From a Tax Policy that killed the Construction Industry

2/
Which is fucking nuts!

We taxed the Housing Industry literally to DEATH: taxes, fees & levies were 30% of the price of a new home compared with 2% 30 years ago

Then the Government announces a TEMPORARY waiver of the taxes

1 Year for HST
3 Years for 50% off Development Fees

3/
And the Residential Construction Industry comes out of a Coma

But lets stop & realize just how incredibly BAD the whole thing really is

Tax Policy now rules Industry

In Manitoba Taxes were removed from Fast Food sold in Grocery Stores but remains on Restaurant Food

4/
Read 5 tweets
Mar 9
Oil Breaks Through $100 A Barrel & Mortgage Rates Go Up As 5 - Yr Canada Bond Yields Jump 9% In A Week

What to do if you are in the middle of purchasing a home or have a Mortgage Renewal in the next 3 months?

LOCK IN A RATE NOW!

There are a few low rates still around today

2/
But likely gone tomorrow or the next day

I have covered this story before

Oil price up = Inflation up = Canada Bond Yields up = Mortgage Rates up

But what about Variable, which has nothing to do with Bond Yields?

Variable is a Bank of Canada decision

What will BoC do?

3/
Nothing for now: NO CHANGE at the next BoC Announcement on March 18th

But what about the future?

It's 100% up to how long the War in the Middle East lasts

If it's over next week all good at BoC

If the War is still raging in June: Look Out

Rate Hikes be coming

4/
Read 6 tweets
Mar 3
The Trickery Never Ends In Real Estate Sales: Let's List The House The House For $250K Less Than We Will Take

For the last 20 years Residential Real Estate has used some of the worst Sales Tactics

Not every Realtor does this but too many do it endlessly

Fake list prices

2/
For a hundred years Real Estate was sold by offering a house at slightly above the price you wanted & some back & forth negotiations happened & the Buyer & Seller arrived at an acceptable sale price

When GTA house prices went nuts in the early 2000's this concept died

3/
Instead houses were priced to attract an Auction

Multiple BIDS was the only way to sell a home

Real Estate Agents boasted about 10 bids, 20 bids 40 bids

At higher prices

In 2021 things were so crazy there was a BULLY offer

Before all offers were in a HUGE offer appeared

4/
Read 6 tweets

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