“Top secret and urgent” classified documents found after Assad’s fall provide interesting insights about the “mechanism” overseen by Russia to manage Israeli-Syrian-Iranian dynamics, and Israeli military actions against Iranian & Hezbollah buildup.
Details in this thread
For years, Russia mediated a process designed to allow Assad’s military to function while limiting Iran & Hezbollah's ability to expand militarily in Syria. This mechanism required Israel to avoid certain strikes if these limitations were enforced.
The mechanism's goal: Prevent Iranian or Hezbollah weapon transfers & military build-ups while allowing Syrian army to address its "needs".
This changed after Assad’s regime collapse, when Israel launched a campaign to wipe out all Syrian army sites & weapons in the past 48hrs.
Per the documents, an operative code-named "Moses" directly messaged former Syrian Defense Minister Lt. Gen. Ali Mahmoud Abbas. The messages were then forwarded to the former National Security Bureau head Ali Mamlouk.
These communications involve Israel's frustration over Syrian complicity in allowing Iranian and Hezbollah activities. “Moses” repeatedly issued warnings, detailing specific incidents and consequences if these actions continued.
April 8, 2023: Moses warned of Hamas’ activities in Syria:
'Three rockets were launched from the Golan Heights by Hamas under Khaled Meshaal’s leadership. We demand you stop such preparations or face consequences. You’re responsible for what happens on your land.'
Israel’s warning escalated:
"Our last measure was a warning shot. If you fail to curb these activities, the next attack will be far more severe. You will pay an unprecedented price."
May 7, 2023: Israel struck weapon depots linked to Damascus’ southern command & a training camp in Dumayr run by “The Golan File” led by Abu Hussain Sajid.
Moses wrote:
"We will not accept the presence of Hajj Hashem or his fighters in southern Syria."
May 17, 2023: Surveillance revealed eight planes landing in Hmeimim Air Base (4 Iran Air flights, 4 Ilyushin Il-76 planes from Syria's Brigade 29.) These planes transported weapons to depots in Latakia and Qutayfa.
'The Russian mechanism can still allow you to operate without risking Israeli retaliation. But supporting Iran & Hezbollah will force us to act severely. Any unmonitored activity bypassing Russian oversight will be seen as a direct threat to Israel and will provoke a response.'
July 14, 2023: the dude reiterated his intolerance for Syrian military cooperation with Iran and Hezbollah:
"Supporting Hezbollah’s air defense capabilities is an act against Israel. This only serves Hezbollah’s interests, while causing harm to your military."
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A lot of confusion & misreporting about the Kurds and opposition forces in northern Syria. Rebels faced no resistance from the regime but hit a brick wall with Kurdish-dominated areas.
Details in this thread 1/x
They’ve been avoiding direct conflict, trying to broker a peaceful deal for Kurdish fighters to leave Aleppo.
This deal now seems to have taken place, and the rebels say Kurdish fighters started evacuating the city toward Manbij and eastern Syria.
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Tal Rifaat was the hardest battle for rebels in northern Aleppo countryside. The same goes for neighborhoods controlled by the YPG. Rebels now claim they’re nearing a deal for only armed Kurdish fighters to leave toward SDF-controlled Eastern Syria.
Folks, there is misreporting on Qatar’s decision to expel Hamas.
Reuters’ reporting is the most accurate — and logical — so far.
Context in following tweets:
Reuters reports it as an ultimatum, Doha warning it’ll pull out of Gaza ceasefire mediations until Hamas & Israel “demonstrate a sincere willingness to return to the negotiating table”.
Not just expulsion, because the US asked it to expel Hamas.
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This is still in the unofficial leaking territory. Reuters also cites officials as saying the office "no longer serves its purpose", which requires more detail but seems to be a separate issue beyond mediation.
As always, Syria is the most important "non-important" story in the Middle East -- the story that doesn't seem to matter, but ends up being a key piece of the puzzle.
A short #thread
Two stories that begin to demonstrate how Syria is central:
For months, actually, the chatter in Syria & elsewhere is that the Israeli attacks against Iran were enabled by collaborators from within the Syrian regime.
Even the “car crash” of a top Assad aide in July was interpreted in this context.
When Iran’s Gen. Qassem Soleimani was assassinated in 2020, there was intense debate over whether his killing would set back Iran’s proxy warfare in the Middle East. It took years for us to see the effects of it, and few today dispute that the vacuum he left remains unfilled. 👇
Some believed his killing won’t matter significantly, because he’d already built a well-oiled machine.
But even for sympathizers his absence has been felt on multiple key occasions. In Iraq and Syria, there are numerous examples where the machine has been degraded both tactically and strategically. Something acknowledged by insiders or people close to their circles.
I haven’t seen such relentless interrogation of Palestinian leadership before, esp. in Arabic.
On Saudi Arabia’s main TV channel, Hamas leader is clearly startled by the intensity of the questions & responses to his answers.
Crucial points in next tweets
One of the most significant ones to Hamas leader by the Saudi TV interviewer is why Hamas expects Arab countries to back them up when Hamas hadn’t consulted them before carrying out an operation akin to declaration of war.
‘You didn’t consult even fellow Palestinians.’
Hamas leader gets visibly angry when she asks him if he would condemn Israeli civilian killings.
Two crucial points. Al Faisal isn’t an official, but you can think of this speech as the *clearest* indicator of the Saudi leadership’s thinking beyond the generic official remarks. Thus: Saudi is messaging that the Gaza war must NOT end the Saudi-Israeli normalization talks 1/2
Second, and despite the growing conventional wisdom about this, I never believed even for a second that the latest round of the conflict has sabotaged the Saudi-Israeli normalization talks.
They’ll be resumed, albeit in greater secrecy than for a while until progress is made.