Thread by @LawkGhafuri

The Night Before the Fall of Damascus 🧵

An Iraqi official shared with me the gripping story of how, the night Damascus was about to fall, Ankara assured Iraq that all Shiite shrines in Syria would be protected. In return, Baghdad stops pro-Iran groups from crossing into Syria.

1/ After Aleppo fell, during a trilateral meeting in Baghdad with the FM of Iraq, Syria, & Iran - Tehran requested that Iraq open its borders to allow 20,000 fighters from Iran-backed armed groups to cross into Syria to bolster Assad’s regime. Iraq outright declined this request.

2/ The situation worsened as Syrian rebels reached the gates of Damascus. On that night, Iraq’s Coordination Framework convened to discuss an alternative: sending 2,000 fighters from Kataib Hezbollah. Their mission would be to protect Shiite shrines, rather than to save Assad.

3/ This decision was largely driven by intense pressure from Iranian-backed armed group leaders, who feared the destruction of these sacred sites if rebels overran Damascus. The priority for them was to safeguard religious heritage, not to fight for Assad’s survival.

4/ Even this scaled-back plan posed significant challenges. Iraq’s Shiite leaders demanded guarantees from Tehran and Moscow to ensure the fighters’ safety once deployed. They feared devastating losses or chaos if Damascus fell or the fighters were ambushed en route.

5/ Neither Tehran nor Moscow provided the assurances Baghdad sought. Russia, consumed by its own military operations in Syria, stayed silent - Tehran, caught off guard by Assad’s crumbling position, lacked a coherent strategy and could not address Iraq’s concerns.

6/ At this critical juncture, Ankara intervened through U.S. mediators with an unexpected proposal: Iraq refrains from deploying pro-Iran fighters in Syria, in return Turkey would ensure that Syrian rebels protect all Shiite shrines near Damascus, including Sayyida Zainab shrine.

7/ The Iraq’s Shiite leaders had to rethink: Could they trust HTS — groups widely seen as an enemy by Shiite leaders — to safeguard sacred sites? Alternatively, deploying fighters without guarantees risked dragging Iraq deeper into Syria’s conflict, with no clear exit strategy.

8/ After intense deliberations, the Coordination Framework made a pivotal decision: Iraq would not send any fighters to Syria. The deployment plan was shelved entirely, as Ankara’s proposal provided a rare opportunity for Baghdad to avoid entanglement in Syria’s conflict.

9/ Reflecting on the decision, the Iraqi official who is a senior advisor to Coordination Framework called it a defining moment: “Turkey’s promise gave us an alternative, and Iraq avoided a move that could have pulled us into a prolonged and costly conflict.”