batsoupyum Profile picture
Dec 23, 2024 1 tweets 1 min read Read on X
It is getting ugly out there so here's my advice after many years of investing:

1) Don't be a hero. Don't buy too early. Miss the first 10% move up and be fine with it.

2) Consolidate down to your highest conviction ideas. If you have more than 10-15 good ideas then your ideas are probably weak. You want 5-10 max.

3) Don't use leverage. Take it out of your portfolio ASAP.

4) These selloffs always last longer than you think. The market will punish people using too much leverage before we can resume our regular program of {checks notes} doing stupid things

Good luck. Be safe.

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More from @batsoupyum

Jun 28, 2025
A note on collecting

I’m often asked about the collectors here and have seen more frequent mention of the word “cabal,” so as someone who goes to events and speaks with many other collectors I thought it might be useful to describe the scene. Note: these thoughts are mine alone and I expect many collectors will disagree with this. It's ok, we can have civil debates around here now and then 🤣
There are many reasons to collect but here are the top 5 in no particular order:
1. You love the art
2. You love the artist
3. You want to support a movement
4. You are copytrading someone
5. You are in it for financial gain
Most large collectors have hit all of these categories at some point so I’ll address each in turn and then discuss this notion of a cabal. I think it’s important to note that ALL of these categories come into play simultaneously when deciding to collect, it's just a matter of weighting them to individual taste.
Read 12 tweets
Jan 3, 2025
Some very surprising conclusions in this exercise.... I'm going to try and summarize my takeaways, organized around 5 categories:

1) PFPs
2) Generative Art
3) 1/1 Art
4) Ordinals
5) Personal
1) PFPs

Unsurprisingly, the overwhelming favorite choice among known projects was "a punk"

Far more surprising was the indifference shown towards a select punk. We had many mentions of Aliens and Hoodie, but a lot of people simply didn't even care or chose something personal to themselves. For example:

We had many mentions of BAYC, Pengus, Smowls, etc but most often cited after punks was the RarePepe Nakamoto card.

I don't find this surprising as it's an incredible asset and story. I was more surprised that more people didn't cite one of the 9 RarePepe 1/1s out there, especially ONLYONEPEPE or HOMERPEPE

Personally I'd put Homer in my top 10Image
Image
Image
Read 14 tweets
Mar 13, 2024
I don't do much in PFPs anymore, but decided to look into BAYC and wtf seems to be nonstop carnage there (I personally own zero).

And I think this has a lot to do with it. Lending 👇 Image
Unlike most NFT lending platforms, Blur's has 2 unique features:

1) Loans are perpetual. Most platforms have a set expiration
2) The lender can put the loan back to the borrower, triggering a 24h auction where someone else needs to refi the loan or the BAYC goes to the lender
Once the floor of any collection starts falling, #2 kicks in and supercharges the downturn:
- lenders say "f this, I need to get out before the LTV on my loan runs above 100%"
- borrowers, knowing that the loan is about to get put back to them, also panic and start listing...
Read 7 tweets
Jun 18, 2022
Some thoughts/predictions for how I think things will look in #NFTs coming out of this bear market 🧵

Warning: I am wrong a lot so take this lightly
There have been 4 main drivers of #NFTs values for roughly the last 18 months (there are obv more than 4 but these stand out to me):

1) OG/Historic
2) Aesthetics
3) Utility
4) FOMO
1) OG/Historic. Examples: Punks, Pepes, @Coldie @XCOPYART @ROBNESSOFFICIAL @dmitricherniak

OG mattered for ~6 months in '21 and then everyone stopped caring. Punks have leaked lower for about a year now. Coldie was selling 1/1s for 20E, which is stupid.
Read 13 tweets
Mar 6, 2022
I've had a number of questions recently about #NFT markets and, specifically, this chart I made last year.

So here we go with a short 🧵 (oh no Bats, not that! Yes that! {evil laughter})

So it seems people feel like 1/1 art is dead...

I'll use SR as a proxy for the kinds of comments I'm getting. ImageImage
And to make it even more painful for artists, things feel grim while OS active wallets continue to march ever higher Image
Read 14 tweets
Dec 20, 2021
Here's my guide on how I value #NFTs. It is by no means comprehensive, so please add to it in this thread!

Let's start with a basic equation for how I think about it:
Now let's look at each variable in turn:
These are not in order of importance:
Read 11 tweets

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