It is getting ugly out there so here's my advice after many years of investing:
1) Don't be a hero. Don't buy too early. Miss the first 10% move up and be fine with it.
2) Consolidate down to your highest conviction ideas. If you have more than 10-15 good ideas then your ideas are probably weak. You want 5-10 max.
3) Don't use leverage. Take it out of your portfolio ASAP.
4) These selloffs always last longer than you think. The market will punish people using too much leverage before we can resume our regular program of {checks notes} doing stupid things
Good luck. Be safe.
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I’m often asked about the collectors here and have seen more frequent mention of the word “cabal,” so as someone who goes to events and speaks with many other collectors I thought it might be useful to describe the scene. Note: these thoughts are mine alone and I expect many collectors will disagree with this. It's ok, we can have civil debates around here now and then 🤣
There are many reasons to collect but here are the top 5 in no particular order: 1. You love the art 2. You love the artist 3. You want to support a movement 4. You are copytrading someone 5. You are in it for financial gain
Most large collectors have hit all of these categories at some point so I’ll address each in turn and then discuss this notion of a cabal. I think it’s important to note that ALL of these categories come into play simultaneously when deciding to collect, it's just a matter of weighting them to individual taste.
Unsurprisingly, the overwhelming favorite choice among known projects was "a punk"
Far more surprising was the indifference shown towards a select punk. We had many mentions of Aliens and Hoodie, but a lot of people simply didn't even care or chose something personal to themselves. For example:
We had many mentions of BAYC, Pengus, Smowls, etc but most often cited after punks was the RarePepe Nakamoto card.
I don't find this surprising as it's an incredible asset and story. I was more surprised that more people didn't cite one of the 9 RarePepe 1/1s out there, especially ONLYONEPEPE or HOMERPEPE
I don't do much in PFPs anymore, but decided to look into BAYC and wtf seems to be nonstop carnage there (I personally own zero).
And I think this has a lot to do with it. Lending 👇
Unlike most NFT lending platforms, Blur's has 2 unique features:
1) Loans are perpetual. Most platforms have a set expiration 2) The lender can put the loan back to the borrower, triggering a 24h auction where someone else needs to refi the loan or the BAYC goes to the lender
Once the floor of any collection starts falling, #2 kicks in and supercharges the downturn:
- lenders say "f this, I need to get out before the LTV on my loan runs above 100%"
- borrowers, knowing that the loan is about to get put back to them, also panic and start listing...
OG mattered for ~6 months in '21 and then everyone stopped caring. Punks have leaked lower for about a year now. Coldie was selling 1/1s for 20E, which is stupid.