1/ A Russian medic who has deserted from the Russian army and is seeking asylum in France has given a vivid account of the grim conditions on the Russian front line in Ukraine, the brutality of the Russian commanders, and the threats faced by Russian troops. ⬇️
2/ 40-year-old Alexey Zhilyaev from Murino near St Petersburg deserted from the Russian army in August 2024 after nine months of service as a medic. He fled Russia with the aid of a dissident group and is now in France, where he is seeking political asylum.
3/ Interviewed by Radio Free Europe, Zhilyaev says that he had trained as a medic as a student. He was inspired to join the army by seeing "crowds of people without arms and legs, on crutches and in wheelchairs, getting off the train" in St Petersburg.
4/ He was taken to Ukraine only a week after signing a contract with the army, but found the 'liberated' territories a desolate wasteland. "Everything is destroyed. Everyone who remains works in markets, shops, car repair shops, hotels."
5/ "There is nothing else left there – no production, no work ... No one is waiting for us there as liberators. Even if they smile at you, for example, in a store, you can tell from their look that they hate you. These are the ones who, according to Putin, must be liberated."
6/ Zhilyaev was sent to the third line of defences, behind the front lines, where he was sent almost daily on evacuation missions to recover the wounded and dead. It was an extremely hazardous task because of the aerial dominance of Ukraine's kamikaze drones.
7/ Although the Russians had electronic warfare systems, they often weren't effective. Zhilyaev says there were entire "swarms" of Ukrainian drones in his sector, averaging five per Russian soldier. Men were killed within minutes of arriving at the front line.
8/ "A guy, 18 years old, [had] 20 minutes at the front, an FPV drone flew at him with a TNT block – that was it. They turn [you] to dust straight away. It’s the same at our “zero” [base].
9/ "The soldiers from the second battalion arrived, the drone tore off a guy’s leg in a dugout at the old “zero”. We run up, provide assistance. It’s clear that they’re still flying.
10/ "They covered him with a second stretcher and jumped into another dugout saying “we want to live too”.
11/ "There really are a lot of drones. The guys once took a position and said: the Ukrainians have a 3D printer, control boards, motors there. And they assemble drones right on their front."
12/ He is harshly critical of Russian commanders, who he says direct their troops as if they were playing a game of Command & Conquer: Red Alert. The Russians rely on crude 'meat assault' tactics, with the Ukrainians constantly preparing traps for them as they withdraw.
13/ "The Ukrainians safeguard their personnel. If the Russians go on the offensive, they retreat, and the Russian army occupies a point. And at this point, the Ukrainians have already zeroed in on all positions, and where they haven’t zeroed in, they drop sensors from drones.
14/ "And they start to encircle them. An assault detachment of 15 people left, three came out, the rest stayed there. That’s usually how it goes. I can tell about losses in general by the ratio of evacuated bodies of Ukrainian and Russian soldiers, [which is] 1 to 7."
15/ Zhilyaev says that Russian commanders treat their men brutally, sending individual soldiers into near-suicidal assaults on the basis of personal animosity or, in one case, because a commander objected to a man being unshaven.
16/ "An assault battalion is suicide bombers. The average survival rate in an assault squad is 20%.
17/ "In a penal assault unit, [survival] tends towards zero. It mainly includes those who are undesirable to the command and those who screw up, for example, drink or use drugs," as well as "those sick with hepatitis C."
18/ Zhilyaev later met two convicts who had been part of what was probably a penal battalion. "They had a company [of] a hundred men in the Zaporizhzhia direction. There they were sent to storm every hour. The platoon runs out, the next one is sent. Only these two crawled out."
19/ Pits in the ground, known as zindans, are used to confine "mostly undesirables ... and keep them there from a day to two weeks. They give almost no food: about 20 people sit in a hole, and between them they get two loaves of bread and a liter and a half of water. For a day."
20/ "They are abused, not so much physically as morally. They are taken out to work – to cut down trees, build some fences. And all under the protection of the military police or the commandant’s company."
21/ Other soldiers are tied to trees for days at a time as a punishment. In Ukraine's harsh winter climate, open-air punishments can be hazardous.
One one occasion, a political officer ordered a lieutenant he disliked to be thrown into a pit.
22/ "He got frostbite on both his feet - they had to be amputated. But we filmed it on our phone and passed it on to the volunteers who deliver humanitarian aid. They posted the video on VKontakte, and the lieutenant was finally released, but without his feet."
23/ At least one soldier a week committed suicide. Others deliberately injured themselves in an effort to get sent to hospital, but were instead thrown into a pit until they admitted they had shot themselves and pledged that they were ready to "atone for their guilt with blood".
24/ Injured men were brought from the pit to Zhilyaev's medical battalion, where they would be bandaged, injected with antibiotics, "and then, by decision of the division political officers, with the consent of the division commander, sent to assault. And that's it [for them]."
25/ He says that nobody is interested in the politics of the war. "The privates and junior officers all want to go home, no one needs this war. The political officers basically forced them to go on the assault."
26/ "Plus, as far as I understand, they planted rumours through their informers that the Ukrainians were torturing and killing prisoners, cutting off something. These are really planted stories, which then become rumours.
27/ "But there was never any political propaganda about 'Nazis' and 'Banderites.'"
In February 2024, Zhilyaev was seriously wounded and was evacuated to Moscow for treatment. This, however, was perfunctory – antibiotics to stop infections and vitamin C for everything else.
28/ He says that military hospitals are "like a prison, there's military police everywhere, you can't get out. I already had thoughts of escaping, but I didn't dare because of the patrols." He decided to desert, and managed to escape to Belarus, from where he travelled to France.
29/ Zhilyaev reflects on "the senselessness of our work and my personal work. You rescue a person, they transport him on the evacuation route, he lies in the hospital for a month, and then... There are memorable names, funny ones.
30/ And when I had access to statistics to fill out reports, I look – and the person is already 200 [dead]. You rescued him, and he... And thirdly, the life cycle of any Russian soldier ends in assaults. There you either have to kill or die, and I don’t want either one." /end
1/ News that the Iranian regime is proving more resilient than expected highlights its unusual governing structure as a 'polydictatorship'. In many ways, it was designed from the ground up to resist regime change. ⬇️
2/ The regime comprises a multi-layered set of elected and unelected institutions that shares power across religious bodies bodies, the armed forces (particularly the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps), and economic entities. Each provides a separate and distinct power centre.
3/ They each have their own institutional bases, resources, coercive capacity, and claims to legitimacy — none of which fully controls the others, but which collectively make the regime more resilient to internal and external shocks.
1/ The shutdown of Starlink is reported to be causing a sharp rise in casualties among Russian signalmen and linemen, who are being systematically targeted by Ukrainian drones as they attempt to install alternative communications systems. ⬇️
2/ Pro-Kremlin journalist Andrey Medvedev reports that "in those units where Starlink was operational and then shut down, there was an increase in the number of killed and wounded signalmen and linemen. Why do you think this is?"
3/ "The guys are trying to extend fibre optics to their positions everywhere, while the Ukrainians are herding our signalmen and hitting them with drones. Here's an officer's comment. Not everyone will understand, but...
1/ Ukrainian drone attacks deep in the Russian rear have prompted alarm among Russian warbloggers. They warn that the 'kill zone' behind the front line has expanded far into the rear of the Russian-occupied Donbas region. ⬇️
1/ Vladimir Putin is said to be concerned about a possible coup by the Russian military following the arrest of former First Deputy Defence Minister Ruslan Tsalikov. Mobile Internet in the centre of Moscow has been turned off for the past week, with no official explanation. ⬇️
2/ Tsalikov's arrest last week was the culmination of a long-running corruption investigation (see thread below). Investigators have reportedly found that the former minister and his family had amassed property worth over 4 billion rubles.
3/ Tsalikov is a close friend and ally of former Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, who was sacked in 2024 after numerous allegations of corruption and mishandling of the war in Ukraine. Shoigu has a long history as a close ally of Putin, but has since fallen out of favour.
1/ Iran is using a unique type of loitering, self-targeting surface to air missile to shoot down US MQ-9 Reaper drones. 11 Reapers costing over $330 million have so far been reported destroyed in the war with Iran. ⬇️
2/ The "358" missile, also known by NATO as the SA-67 and in Yemen as the Saqr-1, is a unique type of surface-to-air missile that is launched with a rocket booster and then loiters in a target area using a turbojet engine, scanning with an infrared sensor for airborne targets.
3/ It appears to be capable of several modes, including the ability to attack ground targets as well. The missile is reported to be 2.75 meters long and is armed with a 10 kg proximity warhead, with a total weight of up to 50 kg when fully fueled, and a reported 100 km range.
1/ Fundraising for the Russian army has been declining steeply for some time, leaving soldiers without essential equipment and supplies. A Russian warblogger explains that it's because soldiers are now seen as being recruited from the ranks of Russia's unwanted underclasses. ⬇️
2/ Russia's professional army was decimated in the first months of the war in Ukraine. Losses were replaced by mobilising 300,000 men from September-October 2022 onwards. They were recruited from across society and were widely supported by the Russian public.
3/ The political costs of mobilisation were high, however, so the government turned instead to recruiting the marginalised and disadvantaged. This has included convicts, drug addicts, alcoholics, debtors, and poverty-stricken ethnic minorities from remote regions of Russia.