1/ A Russian medic who has deserted from the Russian army and is seeking asylum in France has given a vivid account of the grim conditions on the Russian front line in Ukraine, the brutality of the Russian commanders, and the threats faced by Russian troops. ⬇️
2/ 40-year-old Alexey Zhilyaev from Murino near St Petersburg deserted from the Russian army in August 2024 after nine months of service as a medic. He fled Russia with the aid of a dissident group and is now in France, where he is seeking political asylum.
3/ Interviewed by Radio Free Europe, Zhilyaev says that he had trained as a medic as a student. He was inspired to join the army by seeing "crowds of people without arms and legs, on crutches and in wheelchairs, getting off the train" in St Petersburg.
4/ He was taken to Ukraine only a week after signing a contract with the army, but found the 'liberated' territories a desolate wasteland. "Everything is destroyed. Everyone who remains works in markets, shops, car repair shops, hotels."
5/ "There is nothing else left there – no production, no work ... No one is waiting for us there as liberators. Even if they smile at you, for example, in a store, you can tell from their look that they hate you. These are the ones who, according to Putin, must be liberated."
6/ Zhilyaev was sent to the third line of defences, behind the front lines, where he was sent almost daily on evacuation missions to recover the wounded and dead. It was an extremely hazardous task because of the aerial dominance of Ukraine's kamikaze drones.
7/ Although the Russians had electronic warfare systems, they often weren't effective. Zhilyaev says there were entire "swarms" of Ukrainian drones in his sector, averaging five per Russian soldier. Men were killed within minutes of arriving at the front line.
8/ "A guy, 18 years old, [had] 20 minutes at the front, an FPV drone flew at him with a TNT block – that was it. They turn [you] to dust straight away. It’s the same at our “zero” [base].
9/ "The soldiers from the second battalion arrived, the drone tore off a guy’s leg in a dugout at the old “zero”. We run up, provide assistance. It’s clear that they’re still flying.
10/ "They covered him with a second stretcher and jumped into another dugout saying “we want to live too”.
11/ "There really are a lot of drones. The guys once took a position and said: the Ukrainians have a 3D printer, control boards, motors there. And they assemble drones right on their front."
12/ He is harshly critical of Russian commanders, who he says direct their troops as if they were playing a game of Command & Conquer: Red Alert. The Russians rely on crude 'meat assault' tactics, with the Ukrainians constantly preparing traps for them as they withdraw.
13/ "The Ukrainians safeguard their personnel. If the Russians go on the offensive, they retreat, and the Russian army occupies a point. And at this point, the Ukrainians have already zeroed in on all positions, and where they haven’t zeroed in, they drop sensors from drones.
14/ "And they start to encircle them. An assault detachment of 15 people left, three came out, the rest stayed there. That’s usually how it goes. I can tell about losses in general by the ratio of evacuated bodies of Ukrainian and Russian soldiers, [which is] 1 to 7."
15/ Zhilyaev says that Russian commanders treat their men brutally, sending individual soldiers into near-suicidal assaults on the basis of personal animosity or, in one case, because a commander objected to a man being unshaven.
16/ "An assault battalion is suicide bombers. The average survival rate in an assault squad is 20%.
17/ "In a penal assault unit, [survival] tends towards zero. It mainly includes those who are undesirable to the command and those who screw up, for example, drink or use drugs," as well as "those sick with hepatitis C."
18/ Zhilyaev later met two convicts who had been part of what was probably a penal battalion. "They had a company [of] a hundred men in the Zaporizhzhia direction. There they were sent to storm every hour. The platoon runs out, the next one is sent. Only these two crawled out."
19/ Pits in the ground, known as zindans, are used to confine "mostly undesirables ... and keep them there from a day to two weeks. They give almost no food: about 20 people sit in a hole, and between them they get two loaves of bread and a liter and a half of water. For a day."
20/ "They are abused, not so much physically as morally. They are taken out to work – to cut down trees, build some fences. And all under the protection of the military police or the commandant’s company."
21/ Other soldiers are tied to trees for days at a time as a punishment. In Ukraine's harsh winter climate, open-air punishments can be hazardous.
One one occasion, a political officer ordered a lieutenant he disliked to be thrown into a pit.
22/ "He got frostbite on both his feet - they had to be amputated. But we filmed it on our phone and passed it on to the volunteers who deliver humanitarian aid. They posted the video on VKontakte, and the lieutenant was finally released, but without his feet."
23/ At least one soldier a week committed suicide. Others deliberately injured themselves in an effort to get sent to hospital, but were instead thrown into a pit until they admitted they had shot themselves and pledged that they were ready to "atone for their guilt with blood".
24/ Injured men were brought from the pit to Zhilyaev's medical battalion, where they would be bandaged, injected with antibiotics, "and then, by decision of the division political officers, with the consent of the division commander, sent to assault. And that's it [for them]."
25/ He says that nobody is interested in the politics of the war. "The privates and junior officers all want to go home, no one needs this war. The political officers basically forced them to go on the assault."
26/ "Plus, as far as I understand, they planted rumours through their informers that the Ukrainians were torturing and killing prisoners, cutting off something. These are really planted stories, which then become rumours.
27/ "But there was never any political propaganda about 'Nazis' and 'Banderites.'"
In February 2024, Zhilyaev was seriously wounded and was evacuated to Moscow for treatment. This, however, was perfunctory – antibiotics to stop infections and vitamin C for everything else.
28/ He says that military hospitals are "like a prison, there's military police everywhere, you can't get out. I already had thoughts of escaping, but I didn't dare because of the patrols." He decided to desert, and managed to escape to Belarus, from where he travelled to France.
29/ Zhilyaev reflects on "the senselessness of our work and my personal work. You rescue a person, they transport him on the evacuation route, he lies in the hospital for a month, and then... There are memorable names, funny ones.
30/ And when I had access to statistics to fill out reports, I look – and the person is already 200 [dead]. You rescued him, and he... And thirdly, the life cycle of any Russian soldier ends in assaults. There you either have to kill or die, and I don’t want either one." /end
1/ The Ukrainian drone strike campaign against Russian oil refineries is impacting daily life in Russia to an unprecedented extent. Drivers are being forced into desperate measures, such as buying diesel siphoned off from locomotives and resold by corrupt railway employees. ⬇️
2/ The Russian news outlet 'We can explain' notes that "there are now regions where there isn't a single accessible gas station." The channel's subscribers have shared how the gasoline shortage is changing their daily lives:
3/👨🦱 Mikhail, a tourist bus driver:
"Every week, new limits come out of the blue. What do you do when you and your passengers have no fuel at night, or they don't give you fuel because of restrictions? Our typical fill-up is 300-400 litres.
1/ Ukraine's drone blockade of Crimea is tightening, with yet more ships hit in the Sea of Azov. Russia is reported to have halted shipping in the area in response. This is likely to have drastic effects not just on Crimea but on many Russian exports. ⬇️
2/ Reuters reports that Russia has suspended shipping on the Azov-Don Canal due to Ukrainian attacks, according to sources in Russia's grain export industry. Up to a quarter of Russia's wheat exports pass through this route. Wheat market prices have already risen 4% as a result.
3/ The Russian border services have also reportedly told shipping companies that passage through the Kerch Strait between the Sea of Azov and Black Sea has similarly been suspended. This effectively blocks ships from passing under the bridge to Crimea.
1/ The killers of a pro-Russian American are reportedly to be pardoned and sent to fight in Ukraine. 'Donbass Cowboy' Russell Bentley died under torture, reportedly after being electrocuted, and was subsequently blown into pieces in an attempt to cover up the killing. ⬇️
2/ Bentley was a communist activist and convicted marijuana smuggler from Texas who travelled to the occupied Donbas region of Ukraine in 2014 to fight in a pro-Russian militia. He married a local woman, settled in Donetsk city, and became a warblogger after being demobilised.
3/ He was abducted on 8 April 2024 by soldiers of the 5th Motorised Rifle Brigade of the 'Donetsk People's Republic' after being suspected of spying on the aftermath of a Ukrainian artillery strike. The men took him to a nearby abandoned mine repurposed as a torture centre.
1/ Is Alexey Melnichenko's interview in The Economist a worthwhile vision of Russia's future, or a sneaky British provocation? Opinion among Russian commentators is divided, with some praising the oligarch's views and others looking for a hidden agenda. ⬇️
2/ (For part 1 of this thread, see the link below.)
3/ 'Intelligence Diary' comments that Melnichenko was approaching the question of Russia's future from a rather different perspective, but had come to the same conclusions as the author:
1/ An interview with Russian oligarch Alexey Melnichenko in The Economist is prompting strong interest among Russian commentators. Some see it as a valuable insight into elite thinking about Russia's future; others see it as a Western provocation. ⬇️
2/ Melnichenko sees five possible scenarios ahead for Russia:
– a "humiliated" Russia on the periphery of the West, which would turn to aggressive revanchism in the style of Weimar Germany;
– Russia falling into China's orbit and becoming a de facto satellite state of China;
3/ – a disintegrating Russia with struggles between regional leaders for resources and territory, and uncertain control over the nuclear arsenal;
– a "fortress Russia", closed to the outside world and in a permanently mobilised state of emergency;
1/ An ongoing 'massacre' of Russian tankers in the Sea of Azov is prompting apolexy and denunciations from Russian warbloggers. They ask what is going on, and some suspect a conspiracy: "incompetence of this level does not exist". ⬇️
2/ Contrary to some claims, these are not 'shadow fleet' tankers; they are instead small coastal and riverine vessels with capacities of a few thousand tons each. Russia appears to be using them to bring fuel into Crimea to break the Ukrainian drone blockade of the highways.
3/ However, Crimea's Black Sea ports are effectively unusable due to the constant threat of Ukrainian unmanned surface vessels (USVs). Crimea's principal Azov port, Kerch, is relatively small. Vessels have to queue up in the roadsteads outside the port, completely undefended.