Our Solana Price Target by the End of 2025 is $520
We value Solana (SOL) based on its projected year-end market share within the smart contract platform (SCP) market. Our SCP market cap forecast is derived from U.S. M2 money supply growth, given its strong historical correlation with crypto market capitalization.
We project M2 to reach $22.3T by the end of 2025, maintaining its 3.2% annualized growth rate since its last trough in October 2023. Using regression analysis, we estimate total SCP market capitalization will grow 43% to $1.1T by year-end 2025 (vs. $770B today), surpassing its 2021 peak of $989B. Historical data shows a strong correlation between M2 and SCP market cap, with a 12-month moving average R² of 0.36 and a t-statistic of 5.7 (p < 0.0001).
Currently, Solana holds 15% of SCP market cap, but we forecast its share to rise to 22% by EOY 2025. This projection is supported by Solana’s developer dominance, increasing market share in DEX volumes, revenues, and active users. Using an autoregressive (AR) forecast model, we estimate Solana’s market cap will reach ~$250B, implying a SOL price of $520 based on ~486M floating tokens.
@Matthew_Sigel @Patrick_Bush_VE
We value Solana (SOL) based on its projected year-end market share within the smart contract platform (SCP) market. Our SCP market cap forecast is derived from U.S. M2 money supply growth, given its strong historical correlation with crypto market capitalization.
We project M2 to reach $22.3T by the end of 2025, maintaining its 3.2% annualized growth rate since its last trough in October 2023. Using regression analysis, we estimate total SCP market capitalization will grow 43% to $1.1T by year-end 2025 (vs. $770B today), surpassing its 2021 peak of $989B. Historical data shows a strong correlation between M2 and SCP market cap, with a 12-month moving average R² of 0.36 and a t-statistic of 5.7 (p < 0.0001).
Currently, Solana holds 15% of SCP market cap, but we forecast its share to rise to 22% by EOY 2025. This projection is supported by Solana’s developer dominance, increasing market share in DEX volumes, revenues, and active users. Using an autoregressive (AR) forecast model, we estimate Solana’s market cap will reach ~$250B, implying a SOL price of $520 based on ~486M floating tokens.
@Matthew_Sigel @Patrick_Bush_VE
Please note that VanEck has positions in Solana (SOL).
Not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or digital assets mentioned, or as any call to action. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Investments in digital assets are subject to significant risk and are not suitable for all investors. Digital asset prices are highly volatile, and the value of digital assets, can rise or fall dramatically and quickly. If their value goes down, there’s no guarantee that it will rise again. As a result, there is a significant risk of loss of your entire principal investment.
The information, valuation scenarios and price targets presented on any digital assets in are not intended as financial advice, a recommendation to buy or sell these digital assets, or any call to action. There may be risks or other factors not accounted for in these scenarios that may impede the performance these digital assets; their actual future performance is unknown, and may differ significantly from any valuation scenarios or projections/forecasts herein. Any projections, forecasts or forward-looking statements included herein are the results of a simulation based on our research, are valid as of the date of this communication and subject to change without notice, and are for illustrative purposes only. Please conduct your own research and draw your own conclusions.
Not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or digital assets mentioned, or as any call to action. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Investments in digital assets are subject to significant risk and are not suitable for all investors. Digital asset prices are highly volatile, and the value of digital assets, can rise or fall dramatically and quickly. If their value goes down, there’s no guarantee that it will rise again. As a result, there is a significant risk of loss of your entire principal investment.
The information, valuation scenarios and price targets presented on any digital assets in are not intended as financial advice, a recommendation to buy or sell these digital assets, or any call to action. There may be risks or other factors not accounted for in these scenarios that may impede the performance these digital assets; their actual future performance is unknown, and may differ significantly from any valuation scenarios or projections/forecasts herein. Any projections, forecasts or forward-looking statements included herein are the results of a simulation based on our research, are valid as of the date of this communication and subject to change without notice, and are for illustrative purposes only. Please conduct your own research and draw your own conclusions.
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