1/ Russian warbloggers are very upset at the prospect of a ceasefire in Ukraine that leaves the objectives of the 'Special Military Operation' unfulfilled. One asks, "does the death of my boys mean nothing [but] a dog's dick and a hole after the assault?" ⬇️
2/ The prominent Russian war correspondent and propagandist Alexander Sladkov has aroused controversy by arguing that Russia is not fighting for territory but "for Russia’s status in the new global world order that is currently being formed."
3/ "The SMO is part of Moscow's global plan to return to the status ranks. We are breaking in by force, pushing the EU, taking what is rightfully ours – a fair position in the international economy and politics.
4/ "The military is at the center of the main processes, they loudly remind who we are, and that other countries should reckon with us. Not only because we are rich, but because we are rich and strong."
5/ Other Russian warbloggers surmise, probably correctly, that Sladkov is reflecting a new official propaganda line that it doesn't matter if Russia takes all the territory it claims in Ukraine, as long as Trump gives it the "status in the new global world order" that it craves.
6/ This is anathema for ultranationalist warbloggers. "It's too early to slam on the brakes or does the death of my boys mean nothing and I've been here in the militia for so many years for a dog's dick and for a hole after the assault?," asks 'Management Speaks'.
7/ 'Callsign Osetin' writes: "What status can we acquire if we are not fighting at full strength and we are considered weaklings, and our army is not taken seriously in the confrontation with the NATO army (a direct army, and not the [Ukrainians] with all NATO standards),…
8/ …where did you get the idea that Kherson and Zaporizhia will be Russian cities if we have not yet agreed on anything, and territorially they are now with the [Ukrainians]? And we still have a long way to go to Zaporizhia... Some kind of double standards are emerging...
9/ "What is going according to our plan? The fact that the Ukrainian is still sitting in the Kursk region, is it also part of our plan?"
10/ Yaroslav Belousov complains: "The liberated lands of the former Ukraine – our Russian people live in them, groaning under the yoke of the blue-yellow Bolsheviks.
11/ "Russia without Kharkiv, Odesa and Yekaterinoslav [former Russian imperial province covering the modern Luhansk, Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia regions] is like a person without a leg or an arm: you can live, but still somehow not right...
12/ "Our "return to the status ranks" without the liberated lands of Novorossiya and Malorossiya is a regular soap bubble that will burst so quickly that you won't even have time to blink.
13/ "Only the recovery of the lost inheritance will give others grounds to communicate with us as equals."
'Colonel Kvachkov and his comrades' argues: "It is not about territories. It is about destroying the Russophobic virus that was launched into our people."
14/ "Its consequence was the destruction of the united Russian state and its fragmentation into three warring parts [i.e. Russia, Belarus and Ukraine]. The goal is to reunite these three parts into one whole. This goal is in the interests of Russia.
15/ "This is not the whim of this or that patriot. This goal is objective."
'Roy TV - Maxim Kalashnikov' says sarcastically: "Apparently, we don't need the fertile territories of the Black Sea region with Kherson, Mykolaiv and Odesa, Transnistria."
16/ "This is not tundra blown by cold winds, really. It turns out that it is cheaper to develop it, permafrost is cooler than rich black soil!
17/ "And in general, it turns out that we fought not for the reunification of Russians and not for the creation of a Great Russia from the Dniester to Sakhalin, not for the destruction of Bandera, but for the status of the Russian Federation in the world...
18/ "And the Kiev Banderas will still have access to the Black Sea. To export bread and raw materials through ports, to import weapons...
19/ "You know those students from Donetsk who were mobilized and thrown into battle in the summer of 2022 without even entrenching tools (they dug trenches with their old helmets).
20/ "Were they fighting for aluminium supplies to the USA? For the Yankees' ability to mine rare earths?" /end
1/ The Ukrainian drone strike campaign against Russian oil refineries is impacting daily life in Russia to an unprecedented extent. Drivers are being forced into desperate measures, such as buying diesel siphoned off from locomotives and resold by corrupt railway employees. ⬇️
2/ The Russian news outlet 'We can explain' notes that "there are now regions where there isn't a single accessible gas station." The channel's subscribers have shared how the gasoline shortage is changing their daily lives:
3/👨🦱 Mikhail, a tourist bus driver:
"Every week, new limits come out of the blue. What do you do when you and your passengers have no fuel at night, or they don't give you fuel because of restrictions? Our typical fill-up is 300-400 litres.
1/ Ukraine's drone blockade of Crimea is tightening, with yet more ships hit in the Sea of Azov. Russia is reported to have halted shipping in the area in response. This is likely to have drastic effects not just on Crimea but on many Russian exports. ⬇️
2/ Reuters reports that Russia has suspended shipping on the Azov-Don Canal due to Ukrainian attacks, according to sources in Russia's grain export industry. Up to a quarter of Russia's wheat exports pass through this route. Wheat market prices have already risen 4% as a result.
3/ The Russian border services have also reportedly told shipping companies that passage through the Kerch Strait between the Sea of Azov and Black Sea has similarly been suspended. This effectively blocks ships from passing under the bridge to Crimea.
1/ The killers of a pro-Russian American are reportedly to be pardoned and sent to fight in Ukraine. 'Donbass Cowboy' Russell Bentley died under torture, reportedly after being electrocuted, and was subsequently blown into pieces in an attempt to cover up the killing. ⬇️
2/ Bentley was a communist activist and convicted marijuana smuggler from Texas who travelled to the occupied Donbas region of Ukraine in 2014 to fight in a pro-Russian militia. He married a local woman, settled in Donetsk city, and became a warblogger after being demobilised.
3/ He was abducted on 8 April 2024 by soldiers of the 5th Motorised Rifle Brigade of the 'Donetsk People's Republic' after being suspected of spying on the aftermath of a Ukrainian artillery strike. The men took him to a nearby abandoned mine repurposed as a torture centre.
1/ Is Alexey Melnichenko's interview in The Economist a worthwhile vision of Russia's future, or a sneaky British provocation? Opinion among Russian commentators is divided, with some praising the oligarch's views and others looking for a hidden agenda. ⬇️
2/ (For part 1 of this thread, see the link below.)
3/ 'Intelligence Diary' comments that Melnichenko was approaching the question of Russia's future from a rather different perspective, but had come to the same conclusions as the author:
1/ An interview with Russian oligarch Alexey Melnichenko in The Economist is prompting strong interest among Russian commentators. Some see it as a valuable insight into elite thinking about Russia's future; others see it as a Western provocation. ⬇️
2/ Melnichenko sees five possible scenarios ahead for Russia:
– a "humiliated" Russia on the periphery of the West, which would turn to aggressive revanchism in the style of Weimar Germany;
– Russia falling into China's orbit and becoming a de facto satellite state of China;
3/ – a disintegrating Russia with struggles between regional leaders for resources and territory, and uncertain control over the nuclear arsenal;
– a "fortress Russia", closed to the outside world and in a permanently mobilised state of emergency;
1/ An ongoing 'massacre' of Russian tankers in the Sea of Azov is prompting apolexy and denunciations from Russian warbloggers. They ask what is going on, and some suspect a conspiracy: "incompetence of this level does not exist". ⬇️
2/ Contrary to some claims, these are not 'shadow fleet' tankers; they are instead small coastal and riverine vessels with capacities of a few thousand tons each. Russia appears to be using them to bring fuel into Crimea to break the Ukrainian drone blockade of the highways.
3/ However, Crimea's Black Sea ports are effectively unusable due to the constant threat of Ukrainian unmanned surface vessels (USVs). Crimea's principal Azov port, Kerch, is relatively small. Vessels have to queue up in the roadsteads outside the port, completely undefended.