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Richard Dias Profile picture
@RichardDias_CFA
Mar 5, 2025 • 11 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
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Timing is everything, and this Tariff War is precisely what the Federal Government needed to distract Canadians from their abysmal economic record. From Capital Flight, Falling Investment, and my personal favourite, a collapse in Productivity Growth. The data speaks for itself.⬇️ Image
The Receipts;

Capital Flight Image
Falling Private Sector Investment Image
Housing Affordability Crisis Image
Out of Control Immigration Image
20-Year Low in the Canadian Dollar Image
Canada’s Interest Payments Larger Than Healthcare Spending Image
8-Year (ex Covid) High in the Unemployment Rate

15-Year High in the Number of Unemployed Image
Growing Budget Deficits (outside a recession) Image
Lagging Real GDP per capita vs our G7 Peers Image
Stalling Industrial Production Image

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More from @RichardDias_CFA

Richard Dias Profile picture
Sep 5, 2025
Canada's Labour Force Survey Employment declined by 66.5k, down to 20.955Mn in August. This is an 8-month low. The Unemployment Rate rose 0.2% to 7.1%. A thread... www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quoti…Image
A look at the Sectors reveals that the decline was driven by a significant drop in Professional, Scientific & Technical Services, as well as Logistics and Manufacturing. Surprisingly, Construction added 17k new jobs.

As always, Public Administration grew. 🙄 Image
A look at the broader definition of Public Sector Employment, however, points to a decline.

Total ex Public Employment fell by 50k. Image
Read 8 tweets
Richard Dias Profile picture
Apr 4, 2025
Canadian Employment (LFS) fell 32.6k - more than expected (10.0k exp). A Thread.🧵

It's too early to tell if this is the start of a protracted decline in employment or just an unwind from the GST Holiday sugar rush.

My bet is on the former. Image
But a look at the Sector breakdown and the large decline in Trade (retail & wholesale) gives me pause. Image
The Unemployment Rate rose to 6.7%. There are 1.5Mn unemployed Canadians. Image
Read 7 tweets
Richard Dias Profile picture
Mar 20, 2025
Boomers have been insulated from some of the worst policy mistakes in a generation. No Housing, No Capital, No CAPEX, No Productivity, No Hope?

Young people had better vote as if their lives depended on it. Otherwise, expect another 10 years of stagnation. Image
No Housing Image
No Capital Image
Read 6 tweets
Richard Dias Profile picture
Feb 5, 2025
Canada's December Trade Data was released this morning.

Conclusion: Canada sells Natural Resources (i.e. Crude Oil, Minerals, & Agricultural Products) to pay for Imported Goods. A thread...🧵 www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quoti…Image
The importance of Energy Exports is particularly clear when one considers the current account balance.

Without the massive, sustained positive contribution, our Current Account Balance would be deeply negative, requiring a painful readjustment, such as a lower exchange rate or fewer imports (consumption).Image
Of course, it is more complicated than that. Canada exports billions of dollars worth of other Goods and Services, and we Import plenty of Natural Resources. Image
Read 9 tweets
Richard Dias Profile picture
Aug 23, 2024
Canadian Households are highly leveraged. Over the last 25 years, Household debt has quintupled to nearly 3 trillion dollars or 100% of GDP. Image
As you may have surmised, the run-up in debt has been primarily due to mortgage debt, which has fueled one of the world’s more acute housing bubbles. Consumer credit has been quite stable. Image
Unsurprisingly, the other countries at the top of the table have also suffered from huge increases in house prices. Image
Read 6 tweets
Richard Dias Profile picture
Jun 22, 2022
A thread on Canadian #inflation:

As you may know by now, Headline Inflation hit 7.73% in May vs. 7.4% exp. This is a 39-Year high.

The last time inflation was this high, Mike Bossy & Bryan Trottier lead the Islanders to their 4th straight Stanley Cup.
Core Inflation less 8 Volatile Components & Effects of Indirect Taxes also hit a 39-year high - 6.1%

Core Inflation less Food & Energy is roughly 5%.

There are different ways to measure core - more on that later...
Long-time followers know its important to review the components. First, Goods & Services;

Goods inflation (10.4%) is at a 40-year high.

But the 2 takeaways from this chart are that Services inflation (5.2%) keeps heading higher & Services is less volatile (ie, it's sticky).
Read 9 tweets

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