Loonie Hour & IceCap Asset Management
“It takes considerable knowledge just to realize the extent of your own ignorance” Thomas Sowell
NOT Investment Advice
Mar 20 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Boomers have been insulated from some of the worst policy mistakes in a generation. No Housing, No Capital, No CAPEX, No Productivity, No Hope?
Young people had better vote as if their lives depended on it. Otherwise, expect another 10 years of stagnation.
No Housing
Mar 5 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
Timing is everything, and this Tariff War is precisely what the Federal Government needed to distract Canadians from their abysmal economic record. From Capital Flight, Falling Investment, and my personal favourite, a collapse in Productivity Growth. The data speaks for itself.⬇️
The Receipts;
Capital Flight
Feb 5 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
Canada's December Trade Data was released this morning.
Conclusion: Canada sells Natural Resources (i.e. Crude Oil, Minerals, & Agricultural Products) to pay for Imported Goods. A thread...🧵 www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quoti…
The importance of Energy Exports is particularly clear when one considers the current account balance.
Without the massive, sustained positive contribution, our Current Account Balance would be deeply negative, requiring a painful readjustment, such as a lower exchange rate or fewer imports (consumption).
Aug 23, 2024 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Canadian Households are highly leveraged. Over the last 25 years, Household debt has quintupled to nearly 3 trillion dollars or 100% of GDP.
As you may have surmised, the run-up in debt has been primarily due to mortgage debt, which has fueled one of the world’s more acute housing bubbles. Consumer credit has been quite stable.
As you may know by now, Headline Inflation hit 7.73% in May vs. 7.4% exp. This is a 39-Year high.
The last time inflation was this high, Mike Bossy & Bryan Trottier lead the Islanders to their 4th straight Stanley Cup.
Core Inflation less 8 Volatile Components & Effects of Indirect Taxes also hit a 39-year high - 6.1%
Core Inflation less Food & Energy is roughly 5%.
There are different ways to measure core - more on that later...