Canadians are sleeping on soaring Debt Service Costs. Both at the Federal and Provincial levels, Interest Payments on Debt are rising and will likely soar past any 'target'. This is happening for several reasons... One, Governments in Canada have dispensed with any pretence of fiscal responsibility. Canada's Federal Govt. Deficits have doubled, and provinces' deficits have exploded too. There is more debt, hence more interest to pay.

Canada's Labour Force Survey Employment declined by 66.5k, down to 20.955Mn in August. This is an 8-month low. The Unemployment Rate rose 0.2% to 7.1%. A thread... www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quoti… A look at the Sectors reveals that the decline was driven by a significant drop in Professional, Scientific & Technical Services, as well as Logistics and Manufacturing. Surprisingly, Construction added 17k new jobs.

As always, Public Administration grew. 🙄

Canadian Employment (LFS) fell 32.6k - more than expected (10.0k exp). A Thread.🧵

It's too early to tell if this is the start of a protracted decline in employment or just an unwind from the GST Holiday sugar rush.

My bet is on the former. But a look at the Sector breakdown and the large decline in Trade (retail & wholesale) gives me pause.

Boomers have been insulated from some of the worst policy mistakes in a generation. No Housing, No Capital, No CAPEX, No Productivity, No Hope?

Young people had better vote as if their lives depended on it. Otherwise, expect another 10 years of stagnation. No Housing

Timing is everything, and this Tariff War is precisely what the Federal Government needed to distract Canadians from their abysmal economic record. From Capital Flight, Falling Investment, and my personal favourite, a collapse in Productivity Growth. The data speaks for itself.⬇️ The Receipts;

Capital Flight

Canada's December Trade Data was released this morning.

Conclusion: Canada sells Natural Resources (i.e. Crude Oil, Minerals, & Agricultural Products) to pay for Imported Goods. A thread...🧵 www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quoti… The importance of Energy Exports is particularly clear when one considers the current account balance.

Without the massive, sustained positive contribution, our Current Account Balance would be deeply negative, requiring a painful readjustment, such as a lower exchange rate or fewer imports (consumption).

Canadian Households are highly leveraged. Over the last 25 years, Household debt has quintupled to nearly 3 trillion dollars or 100% of GDP. As you may have surmised, the run-up in debt has been primarily due to mortgage debt, which has fueled one of the world’s more acute housing bubbles. Consumer credit has been quite stable.

A thread on Canadian #inflation:

As you may know by now, Headline Inflation hit 7.73% in May vs. 7.4% exp. This is a 39-Year high.

The last time inflation was this high, Mike Bossy & Bryan Trottier lead the Islanders to their 4th straight Stanley Cup. Core Inflation less 8 Volatile Components & Effects of Indirect Taxes also hit a 39-year high - 6.1%

Core Inflation less Food & Energy is roughly 5%.

There are different ways to measure core - more on that later...