THREAD breaking down what he sees & how he got to this number...
Saylor's analysis allows for a bearish scenario of "only" $3M per BTC...
But also a BULLISH scenario of as much as $49M per BTC in just 20 years.
How did he get these numbers?...
As a starting point, Saylor leveraged my analysis (@Croesus_BTC). This gave him:
- $900T of value in the world
- rationale that all $900T is within scope as SoV
- "Full Potential Valuation" framework for forecasting #Bitcoin value
(Can find original article at link in my bio)
With this starting point, Saylor then needed to determine:
- how much capital will #Bitcoin absorb from other asset buckets
- how quickly that will happen
- what else changes along the way
These assumptions and the associated math resulted in Saylor's conclusion:
#Bitcoin will grow to $280T, or $13M/BTC in just 20 years
What would that mean for the world?
#Bitcoin grows from 0.2% to 7% of assets, equating to 35x growth relative to everything else
"Everything pretty much stays the same, except for... Those who embrace #Bitcoin get richer and powerful; those that don't embrace Bitcoin get weaker and poorer." -Michael Saylor
The Bitcoin24 model reveals all of Saylor's assumptions and thinking.
I'll be taking a deep dive into all that Excel analysis in my next slide thread.
To make sure you don't miss it, hit 'Follow'
$13M per #Bitcoin in 20 years.
If this does happen, it's the biggest story in the history of finance. Fortunes will be made by some; most will regret not paying attention sooner.
Here's an overview of this story, and a preview of the analysis coming next...
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
I just read Binance's formal response to the SEC's lawsuit, so you don't have to.
Here are the key arguments they submitted to the courts today.
It's an embarrassingly weak defense... [thread]
The primary framing of the document, and the primary argument for the court to deny the SEC its request for a temporary restraining order (TRO) to halt Binance activities is...
"Why now?"
That's the best Binance has...
The first assertion that Binance's lawyers make is that the SEC has no right to ask the courts to interject.
Which seems a little comical, as the SEC's mandate is to enforce securities law and they believe Binance has flouted those laws.
In the 2019 bear market bottom, I got caught on the sidelines waiting to buy #Bitcoin lower. I listened to on-chain gurus and their favorite metrics.
Learn from my mistakes. Thread on:
- Which Bitcoin price metrics have value & why
- Where we are in the Bitcoin market cycle
After 6 years full-time learning, I believe there’s 3 reliable price drivers:
1. Bitcoin’s halvings (increasing scarcity over time) 2. Human psychology amplifying volatility in the wake of the halvings 3. Macroeconomic conditions (e.g. QT/QE)
#1 + #2 create this dynamic:
Everything else is reading tea leaves, retroactively finding spurious patterns, or downstream of the above 3 drivers.
But these downstream indicators are useful. Some quantify and capture human psychology in action.
Politicians have reached a deal to raise the US debt ceiling.
This will lift the prohibition on adding to the US National Debt for the next 2 years.
This greenlit deficit spending also ensures the continued erosion of the US fiscal standing.
Here's how...
The debt ceiling deal was brokered between US House Speaker McCarthy (R) and President Biden (D). The deal is expected to be voted on by Congress this Wednesday.
The core agreement is that the self-imposed "debt ceiling" would be lifted for 2 years, through the 2024 election.
In exchange, Dems would agree to freeze spending at current levels through that 2 year time period.
However, current spending is on track for $2.2T-$2.9T in deficit spending.
And this is why the debt ceiling HAD to be lifted - the deficit spending was already in flight.
First Republic Bank's collapse - everything you need to know in 8 simple tweets. (A thread.)
#1 - This is the 2nd biggest bank failure in US history.
2023 has seen 3 out of 4 of the biggest bank failures ever... and it's only May.
#2 - First Republic was the 14th largest bank in the United States.
Like every bank, they've been dealing with:
a) large unrealized losses on underwater long-dated bonds they bought when rates were ~0%, and
b) an exodus of deposits to MMFs