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Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
@michael_hoerger
Mar 24 • 5 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
PMC Dashboard, Mar 24, 2025 (U.S.)
🧵1/5

🔹3 million new weekly infections in a persistent "lull" of substantial transmission
🔹1 in 107 (0.9%) of the population actively infectious
🔹1 in 3 regions in high/very high transmission (16 states and DC)Heat map of transmission, described in Tweet
PMC Dashboard, Mar 24, 2025 (U.S.)
🧵2/5

We have had a steady state of about a half million infections the past several weeks. That's over 50 million estimated infections so far in 2025.

In a room of 40-50 people, there's a 1-in-3 chance of exposure if no testing/isolation.Current Levels for Mar 24, 2025 % of the Population Infectious 0.9% (1 in 107) New Daily Infections 446000 New Weekly Infections 3122000 Resulting Weekly Long COVID Cases 156,000 to 624,000 Monthly Forecast Average % of the Population Infectious 1.0% (1 in 96) Average New Daily Infections 496566.6667 New Infections During the Next Month 14897000 Resulting Monthly Long COVID Cases 745,000 to 2,979,000 Running Totals Infections Nationwide in 2025 50757000 Average Number of Infections Per Person All-Time, U.S. 3.708526284 How Does Risk Increase with More Social Co...
PMC Dashboard, Mar 24, 2025 (U.S.)
🧵3/5

There's a good chance of steady transmission the next month. Often, we'd head into a low lull about now. BUT there are no universal precautions, immunity is waning from the fall & winter 2023-24, & viral evolution looks less 'lucky.'Middle forecast shows 400-600k daily infections.
PMC Dashboard, Mar 24, 2025 (U.S.)
🧵4/5

We just passed the 5-year anniversary, now with 10 waves in the U.S.

Americans may see an average of about 8 infections by year 10. We continue to see about 150k excess deaths annually, per actuaries.
PMC Dashboard, Mar 24, 2025 (U.S.)
🧵5/5

Please edit, improve, and share this information across platforms. 🎉👏👏👏

Find the complete dashboard at pmc19.com/dataComplete dashboard, summarized in Tweets 1-3

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More from @michael_hoerger

Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Mar 11
1) 5-yr Anniversary of the WHO Pandemic Declaration

🔥10 waves
🔥Covid mortality rivals lung cancer
🔥8 infections/person by 2030
🔥Long Covid as catastrophic
🔥Death trajectories becoming complex
🔥"During Covid" as anti-science rhetoric
🔥Serious ppl take Covid seriously
🧵
2) Wastewater-derived estimates of case rates show international consensus 20-26% of populations got Covid during the peak 2 months of the 2023-24 winter wave in the U.S., Canada, and the U.K.
3) The ratio of reported cases versus true cases has remained consistent, demonstrating the validity of wastewater-derived estimates. True cases are 15-30x reported cases, a consistent ratio. There are no examples demonstrating low case rates.
Read 25 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Feb 26
1) Mardi Gras 2020 was 5 years ago today. ⚜️

It was before the pandemic declaration, before the federal government recommended masking.

COVlD spread quickly through New Orleans, leading to one of the highest mortality rates per capita in the U.S.... Timeline showing Mardi Gras 2020 just 4 days before the first known reported death of C19 in the U.S. Note. "Peak" diagnoses refers to the peak of the 1st wave.
2) New Orleans service workers were disproportionately hit by the early pandemic. Many died. Many developed #LongCOVID at the time or have now through repeat infections. Many have switched to other sectors....

3) The sad fact is that many service workers are continuing to get #LongCOVID through repeat infections today because the pandemic is ongoing and many restaurants have high occupant density and horrendous air quality....

Read 4 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Feb 17
1) PMC COVlD Dashboard, Feb 17, 2025 (U.S.)

🔥1 in 72 actively infectious
🔥Sustained high transmission
🔥30 states in high/very high transmission (CDC)
🔥3x the transmission of Feb 2021
🔥668,000 daily infections
🔥Only 1 in 28 cases reportedGraph shows 10 waves of the pandemic. Tables summarized partially in post. Additionally, transmission is higher than during 59% of the pandemic. How Does Risk Increase with More Social Contacts? Number of People | Chances anyone is infectious 1 1.4% 2 2.8% 3 4.1% 4 5.5% 5 6.8% 6 8.1% 7 9.4% 8 10.6% 9 11.9% 10 13.1% 15 19.0% 20 24.5% 25 29.7% 30 34.4% 35 38.9% 40 43.0% 50 50.5% 75 65.2% 100 75.5% 300 98.5%
2) PMC COVlD Dashboard, Feb 17, 2025 (U.S.)

This is a mid-sized wave, meaning substantial transmission. Notice that transmission remains steady at high rates.

Expect steady or slightly declining transmission, unless the real-time data are retroactively corrected.Two graphs, showing year-over-year transmission and the forecast, summarized in the post.
3) PMC COVlD Dashboard, Feb 17, 2025 (U.S.)

Notice that 30 states remain in high/very high transmission, per CDC categories.

This is the same as last week. Transmission is 3x higher than in Feb 2021, when people were taking more precautions around masking and testing.Transmission heat map and CDC line graph of regional variation in transmission.
Read 5 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Feb 11
1) A lot of high-risk/aware patients I talk to -- mostly getting cancer treatment -- tend to protect themselves from infection by staying home more.

In the work we do, we help patients to understand that a well-fitting high-quality mask can allow them to attend events safely.
2) These are some tips for finding a well-fitting mask among common options in the U.S. and Canada.

3) Here's a more comprehensive diagram of masks that fit most. Aside from #5, these are widely available.

*#5 (Aegle) was the first N95 widely available during the ongoing pandemic for <$1. Hard to find these days, but I gave some to students.
Read 7 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Jan 28
1) PMC COVID Dashboard for the Week of Jan 27, 2025 (U.S.)

🔹1 in 108 actively infectious
🔹3.1 million weekly infections
🔹>150,000 weekly resulting Long Covid conditions Current Levels for Jan 27, 2025 % of the Population Infectious 0.9% (1 in 108) New Daily Infections 443,000 New Weekly Infections 3,101,000 Resulting Weekly Long COVID Cases 155,000 to 620,000 Monthly Forecast Average % of the Population Infectious 0.9% (1 in 106) Average New Daily Infections 452,933 New Infections During the Next Month 13,588,000 Resulting Monthly Long COVID Cases 679,000 to 2,718,000 Running Totals Infections Nationwide in 2025 18,779,000 Average Number of Infections Per Person All-Time, U.S. 3.60 There is more COVID-19 transmission today than during 41.9% of the pan...
2) We predicted the wave peak would be 0.8 to 1.3 million across various forecasts. We presently have it at 0.9-1.0 million, though retroactive corrections can change that. The WHN also runs an excellent model, with a peak estimated at 1.3 million.
whn.global/estimation-of-…
3) Approx 1 million daily infections is quite serious. This is a far cry from the various #nothingburger predictions, and the Monday morning quarterbacks who in hindsight minimize U.S. infections, Long Covid, & disability.

Perhaps they have social media revenue COIs. I don't.
Read 9 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Jan 20
1) PMC COVID-19 Forecast for Jan 20, 2025 (U.S.)

If we are lucky, the 10th wave has peaked, likely in the 0.9-1.1 million daily infections range, barring significant retroactive corrections.

Over the next month, we should still see about 14 million infections, resulting in 700K to 2.8 million new conditions and enduring symptoms under the umbrella of #LongCOVID. This is simply your reminder than transmission remains high on the back on of a wave.

Regarding the peak, there were huge retroactive downward corrections, especially in Oregon. The CDC data originally showed one of the largest waves there all-time, and then corrected it to say a complete lull the whole time. Once the Biobot data get updated, we may see the peak date change by a week, or jump a bit higher than what you see in the main figure.

What you see in the far end of the forecast is unlikely to be a "high lull," but rather an average between a low lull versus a sustained post-peak haunch of lingering transmission. So, keep an eye on the data. If you're putting off a non-urgent medical appointment, we could get into relatively lower transmission in the next 4-8 weeks. What has me concerned is a sneak-peek of @jlerollblues's long-term forecast indicating a clear possibility of an earlier "mid-year" wave than usual, perhaps even in April. We're still getting pretty lucky on the viral evolution front, but the longer that persists, in absent of major policy change, the bigger the wave we could get. It's a very important time to stay tuned.

Caveats: No data from Biobot in weeks (20% model weight). The California wildfires and pending severe storms in the Deep South are wildcards for transmission. School-based transmission could pick up, but to get a higher peak, transmission would need to pick up much faster in the South and West than in the Midwest and North (unlikely).

In the report, I note that PMC will persist even if the CDC drops or scales back their surveillance program. Also, the most two recent "odd" waves have helped clarify how to handle historical data, and a minor update to the model should help with future atypical waves. If time permits, we will fine-tune those changes further, but there are always more battles on the Covid front than we're able to fight. We also provide a link and light commentary on our recent pre-print showing what our current case estimation model for estimating present/prior daily infections has performed well, and why a lot of other models (BNO, JP, CDC) are underestimates.

Info for new readers:

For those unfamiliar with the PMC model, find full weekly reports for the past 1.5 years at pmc19.com/data

The models combine data from IHME, Biobot, and CDC to use wastewater to estimate case levels (r = .93 to .96) and forecast levels the next month based on typical levels for that date and recent patterns of changes in transmission the past 4 weeks.

Our work has been cited in top scientific journals and media outlets, which are fully sourced in a detailed technical appendix at pmc19.com/data/PMC_COVID…

Examples include JAMA Onc, JAMA-NO, BMC Public Health, Time, People, TODAY, the Washington Post, the Institute for New Economic Thinking, Salon, Forbes, the New Republic, Fox, CBS, NBC, and CNN. See pgs 11-13 at the above link.

#MaskUp #VaxUp #CleanTheAir #RapidTestCurrent Levels for Jan 20, 2025 % of the Population Infectious 1.1% (1 in 87) New Daily Infections 547,000 New Weekly Infections 3,829,000 Resulting Weekly Long COVID Cases 191,000 to 766,000 Monthly Forecast Average % of the Population Infectious 1.0% (1 in 102) Average New Daily Infections 466,700 New Infections During the Next Month 14,001,000 Resulting Monthly Long COVID Cases 700,000 to 2,800,000 Running Totals Infections Nationwide in 2025 15,281,000 Average Number of Infections Per Person All-Time, U.S. 3.59 How Does Risk Increase with More Social Contacts? Number of People | Ch...
2) Here is the issue of Oregon I noted, with the "disappearing surge" in the CDC data. By that, I don't mean a surge that declined quickly. I mean, the CDC saying there was a huge surge in OR and then saying it was a lull the whole time. Baffling.

3) It's an important time to reflect that we have never had a federal Covid response commensurate with the magnitude of this $14-billion problem in the U.S.

3/11/20-1/19/21 = 290K infections/day (91 million total)

1/20/21-1/19/25 = 759K infections/day (1.1 billion total)

10 waves and >1 billion estimated infections in 5 years.

We have never had a well-conceived multi-layered mitigation strategy, and the strategy we have had has often underachieved due to insufficient operational management.

This places society at greater systemic risk from repeat-infection Long COVID. The approach is unreasonable to people with primary immunodeficiencies, cancer, organ transplants, kidney disease, type 1 and 2 diabetes, Long COVID, pregnancy, and many other conditions. Upwards of 2 million older adults in the U.S. are in early retirement, with the labor participation rate still well below pre-pandemic levels, and older adults almost wholly accounting for that presently. The children that were pretended to be magically shielded from Covid are not doing well on the cumulative infection front either.

I do not see that changing. I hope the many scientists and public health officials biting their tongues the past 4 years now feel liberated to speak up on Covid. Note that state and regional organizations and individuals were a big reason why transmission was better under control in year 1 of the pandemic.

Note that our statistics are estimated "true" cases based on the PMC model, not reported cases, which are vast undercounts (ascertainment bias). See the first Tweet for info on our model, including our website, which contains hundreds of pages of reports (pmc19.com/data), or read our recent pre-print showing the high accuracy of our case estimation model, to the extent that is ascertainable (researchsquare.com/article/rs-578…). To believe the true infection estimates are lower than these figures, one would have to suspend cognitive reasoning and merely assume transmission happens at vastly lower rates in the U.S. than those documented through the most-rigorous testing-based program in Europe.figure showing the 10 Covid waves (U.S.)
Read 5 tweets

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