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Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
@michael_hoerger
Mar 24 ā€¢ 5 tweets ā€¢ 2 min read ā€¢ Read on X
PMC Dashboard, Mar 24, 2025 (U.S.)
šŸ§µ1/5

šŸ”¹3 million new weekly infections in a persistent "lull" of substantial transmission
šŸ”¹1 in 107 (0.9%) of the population actively infectious
šŸ”¹1 in 3 regions in high/very high transmission (16 states and DC)Heat map of transmission, described in Tweet
PMC Dashboard, Mar 24, 2025 (U.S.)
šŸ§µ2/5

We have had a steady state of about a half million infections the past several weeks. That's over 50 million estimated infections so far in 2025.

In a room of 40-50 people, there's a 1-in-3 chance of exposure if no testing/isolation.Current Levels for Mar 24, 2025 % of the Population Infectious 0.9% (1 in 107) New Daily Infections 446000 New Weekly Infections 3122000 Resulting Weekly Long COVID Cases 156,000 to 624,000 Monthly Forecast Average % of the Population Infectious 1.0% (1 in 96) Average New Daily Infections 496566.6667 New Infections During the Next Month 14897000 Resulting Monthly Long COVID Cases 745,000 to 2,979,000 Running Totals Infections Nationwide in 2025 50757000 Average Number of Infections Per Person All-Time, U.S. 3.708526284 How Does Risk Increase with More Social Co...
PMC Dashboard, Mar 24, 2025 (U.S.)
šŸ§µ3/5

There's a good chance of steady transmission the next month. Often, we'd head into a low lull about now. BUT there are no universal precautions, immunity is waning from the fall & winter 2023-24, & viral evolution looks less 'lucky.'Middle forecast shows 400-600k daily infections.
PMC Dashboard, Mar 24, 2025 (U.S.)
šŸ§µ4/5

We just passed the 5-year anniversary, now with 10 waves in the U.S.

Americans may see an average of about 8 infections by year 10. We continue to see about 150k excess deaths annually, per actuaries.
PMC Dashboard, Mar 24, 2025 (U.S.)
šŸ§µ5/5

Please edit, improve, and share this information across platforms. šŸŽ‰šŸ‘šŸ‘šŸ‘

Find the complete dashboard at pmc19.com/dataComplete dashboard, summarized in Tweets 1-3

ā€¢ ā€¢ ā€¢

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More from @michael_hoerger

Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Apr 22
šŸ§µ1 of 8 | PMC Dashboard, April 21, 2025 (U.S.)

šŸŒ¤ļøOnly 1 in 5 days of the pandemic have seen transmission as low as today
šŸŒ¤ļø1 in 196 actively infectious
āš”ļøBUT still 1.7 million weekly infections, resulting in >85,000 LC cases and up to 1,000 deaths

I'll walk you through it... Current Levels for Apr 21, 2025 % of the Population Infectious 0.5% (1 in 196) New Daily Infections 244000 New Weekly Infections 1708000 Resulting Weekly Long COVID Cases 85,000 to 342,000 Resulting Weekly Excess Deaths 600 to 1,000 Monthly Forecast Average % of the Population Infectious 0.7% (1 in 147) Average New Daily Infections 324800 New Infections During the Next Month 9744000 Resulting Monthly Long COVID Cases 487,000 to 1,949,000 Resulting Monthly Excess Deaths 3,500 to 5,800 Running Totals Infections Nationwide in 2025 62331000 Average Number of Infecti...
šŸ§µ2 of 8 | PMC Dashboard, April 21, 2025 (U.S.)

We're in the 6th year. See the small red line, bottom left. Notice how closely it tracks the median (gray), year 4 (yellow), & year 5 (orange).

Acknowledging caveats, those are plausible gist-level scenarios for months ahead. year over year graph, summarized in post
šŸ§µ3 of 8 | PMC Dashboard, April 21, 2025 (U.S.)

Expect steady transmission bouncing up and down around the current national lull-level estimate the next several weeks. 200-350k daily infections nationally.

This is about as low as lulls bottom out anymore. Past 12 months and forecast, summarized in post
Read 8 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Apr 14
šŸ§µ1/5 | PMC Dashboard, Apr1il 14, 2025 (U.S.)

šŸ”¹2.2 million weekly infections
šŸ”¹1 in 149 actively infectious
šŸ”¹>100,000 LC cases resulting from the week's infections
šŸ”¹>800 deaths resulting from the week's infections
šŸ”¹"Lull" transmission steady/slightly decliningCurrent Levels for Apr 14, 2025 % of the Population Infectious 0.7% (1 in 149) New Daily Infections 320000 New Weekly Infections 2240000 Resulting Weekly Long COVID Cases 112,000 to 448,000 Resulting Weekly Excess Deaths 800 to 1,300 Monthly Forecast Average % of the Population Infectious 0.7% (1 in 138) Average New Daily Infections 345366.6667 New Infections During the Next Month 10361000 Resulting Monthly Long COVID Cases 518,000 to 2,072,000 Resulting Monthly Excess Deaths 3,700 to 6,200 Running Totals Infections Nationwide in 2025 60891000 Average Number of ...
šŸ§µ2/5 | PMC Dashboard, Apr1il 14, 2025 (U.S.)

Year-over-year transmission (red line, lower left) is tracking the median (grey), year 4 (yellow), and year 5 (orange) closely.

If that trend continues, expect steady yet bumpy transmission the next couple months, until June/July.line graphs, described in tweet
šŸ§µ3/5 | PMC Dashboard, Apr1il 14, 2025 (U.S.)

The heat map shows only 4 states in the CDC 'high' level and none in the 'very' high level.

Check local data. Those timing activities to lulls may see a clear opportunity.heat map, described in tweet
Read 6 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Apr 9
The NIH Clinical Center drops universal masking after 5 months of protecting patients, family, & staff.

Wastewater-derived estimates indicate 2.79 million Americans are getting Covid per week AND top actuaries suggest an American dies of Covid every 3 minutes.

šŸ§µ1/5 Masks are optional beginning April 11. Staff will mask on request.
These are the current wastewater-derived estimates of transmission.

2.79 million Covid infections/week in the U.S. in the current high "lull."
šŸ§µ2/5
This thread with video explains in exquisite detail how every 3 minutes in 2025 an American dies of Covid.

šŸ§µ3/5
Read 5 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Apr 7
1) PMC COVlD Dashboard, April 7, 2025 (U.S.)

šŸ”¹1 in 120 actively infectious
šŸ”¹1 in 3 chance of exposure in a room of 50
šŸ”¹2.8 million weekly infections
šŸ”¹>140,000 resulting LC cases from the week's infections
šŸ”¹>1,000 deaths resulting from the week's infections Current Levels for Apr 7, 2025 % of the Population Infectious 0.8% (1 in 120) New Daily Infections 399000 New Weekly Infections 2793000 Resulting Weekly Long COVID Cases 140,000 to 559,000 Resulting Weekly Excess Deaths 1,000 to 1,700 Monthly Forecast Average % of the Population Infectious 1.0% (1 in 105) Average New Daily Infections 455766.6667 New Infections During the Next Month 13673000 Resulting Monthly Long COVID Cases 684,000 to 2,735,000 Resulting Monthly Excess Deaths 4,900 to 8,100 Running Totals Infections Nationwide in 2025 55591000 Average Number of...
2) Watch this video to understand how we use excess death data from one of the world's largest reinsurers to estimate how this week's infections will result in >1,000 deaths.
3) Transmission is steady or declining across much of the nation, but remains high in 11 states and DC, per the CDC.

Other sources, such as WastewaterSCAN, show a near doubling of transmission in the Northeast the past few weeks, so remain cautious.
Read 4 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Mar 31
šŸ§µ1 of 5
PMC Dashboard, March 31, 2025 (U.S.)

šŸ”¹800-1,400 deaths expected to result from this week's infections (new stat, see video next Tweet)
šŸ”¹100,000+ Long Covid conditions to result from this week's infections
šŸ”¹1 in 142 actively infectious todayCurrent Levels for Mar 31, 2025 % of the Population Infectious 0.7% (1 in 142) New Daily Infections 337000 New Weekly Infections 2359000 Resulting Weekly Long COVID Cases 118,000 to 472,000 Resulting Weekly Excess Deaths 800 to 1,400 Monthly Forecast Average % of the Population Infectious 0.8% (1 in 120) Average New Daily Infections 397233.3333 New Infections During the Next Month 11917000 Resulting Monthly Long COVID Cases 596,000 to 2,383,000 Resulting Monthly Excess Deaths 4,300 to 7,100 Running Totals Infections Nationwide in 2025 52303000 Average Number of ...
šŸ§µ2 of 5
PMC Dashboard, March 31, 2025 (U.S.)

This video explains U.S. COVID excess death statistics, which we have incorporated into the dashboard.

šŸ§µ3 of 5
PMC Dashboard, March 31, 2025 (U.S.)

The transmission forecast suggests 300-500k daily infections the next month. If the data get retroactively corrected downward, we could dip to 200k.

Check local dashboards, and time events accordingly.Forecast graph, described in post
Read 5 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Mar 31
PMC Update on #ExcessDeaths

šŸ”„109,000-175,000 people in the U.S. are expected to die as a result of COVID in 2025, based on estimates derived from Swiss Re
šŸ”„COVID deaths expected to be on par with lung cancer in the U.S. in 2025
šŸ”„Death data added to the dashboard
2) Full video links to learn more about COVID #ExcessDeaths in the U.S.

Dashboard page (presently featured): pmc19.com/data
Downloadable file: pmc19.com/data/deaths033ā€¦
Veed platform: veed.io/view/558039f4-ā€¦
3) The new #ExcessDeath statistics build on what we described in the 5-year pandemic anniversary video.

Watch from 12:14-20:00 to see how simplistic models underestimate COVID deaths. The Swiss Re model solves that problem. PMC extends that work.
Read 6 tweets

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