Thread by @ronmortgageguy

Are We On The Brink Of A Construction Industry Disaster? What If Home Building Is Stalled For YEARS

Been talking to many Industry people on the Developer side & this complete crash in Ontario Home Building is looking worse every week

Because it's likely to be a long time

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Before Residential Construction restarts

When does it get better?

Fastest recovery estimate I have heard is Mid 2027

Many say 2028, a few pessimists suggest 2030

Holy Crap, that's really bad

Let's get specific:

This is about real construction starts: digging a hole

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To pour the concrete forms for the Low-Rise Home or digging down to start the Hi-Rise Tower

For Low-Rise Home Purchasers that process ended in Ontario about 20 months ago

About the same for Hi-Rise

Purpose Built Rentals have had some starts in the last 2 years

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But with changes in the CMHC Select Program last year Rental starts have now dramatically reduced

Oh, and did I mention there are effectively zero new Office Buildings getting started & new Retail Development is almost non-existent

Some Logistics / Distribution but slowing

5/

Government is still building because Tax Payers money is infinite

But it will restart eventually, even if immigration is slowed greatly & new people entering Canada is super low, that clears up & New Canadians at some higher levels will start coming again in 2027

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Therefore 2028 - 2029 will need new homes

Sounds insane right? Canada with a Housing Crisis stops building in the biggest province

But economics control building & today they don't work

Let's all understand just how bad this is for the Construction Workforce

It's Horrible