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Ron Butler Profile picture
@ronmortgageguy
Mar 25, 2025 • 6 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
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Are We On The Brink Of A Construction Industry Disaster? What If Home Building Is Stalled For YEARS

Been talking to many Industry people on the Developer side & this complete crash in Ontario Home Building is looking worse every week

Because it's likely to be a long time

2/
Before Residential Construction restarts

When does it get better?

Fastest recovery estimate I have heard is Mid 2027

Many say 2028, a few pessimists suggest 2030

Holy Crap, that's really bad

Let's get specific:

This is about real construction starts: digging a hole

3/
To pour the concrete forms for the Low-Rise Home or digging down to start the Hi-Rise Tower

For Low-Rise Home Purchasers that process ended in Ontario about 20 months ago

About the same for Hi-Rise

Purpose Built Rentals have had some starts in the last 2 years

4/
But with changes in the CMHC Select Program last year Rental starts have now dramatically reduced

Oh, and did I mention there are effectively zero new Office Buildings getting started & new Retail Development is almost non-existent

Some Logistics / Distribution but slowing

5/
Government is still building because Tax Payers money is infinite

But it will restart eventually, even if immigration is slowed greatly & new people entering Canada is super low, that clears up & New Canadians at some higher levels will start coming again in 2027

6/
Therefore 2028 - 2029 will need new homes

Sounds insane right? Canada with a Housing Crisis stops building in the biggest province

But economics control building & today they don't work

Let's all understand just how bad this is for the Construction Workforce

It's Horrible

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More from @ronmortgageguy

Ron Butler Profile picture
May 12
Why Are Bankruptcies & Insolvencies Growing So Fast? They Have Reached 2009 World Financial Crisis Levels

Main Reasons:

- The Collapse of Residential Real Estate
- Growing Unemployment in Full Time Jobs
- Inflation Destroys Affordability

This will ikely get much worse

2/
The most striking aspect is the growth of Homeowner Insolvencies

From 2015 through 2023 the number of Homeowners filing Insolvencies was incredibly low

The growth in Home Values in Canada provided an ever increasing buffer of equity that could be tapped for cash

3/
If a Homeowner got in financial trouble they just refinanced their Home

Restructured to pay Credit Cards & Lines Of Credit

In the most unmanageable situations just sell the Home & the rise in value settled all debts

Particularly in BC & Ontario this option always worked

4/
Read 6 tweets
Ron Butler Profile picture
May 4
When Will Canadians Tell The Prime Minister: TIMES UP!

It's been over a year since Prime Minister Carney's election & at what point do Canadians question his promise of: Build Bigger & FASTER than ever before

When will Canada become the Energy Superpower he told us?

2/
Look, I get it, things take a bit of time

But so far it's:

- MOUs
- Open Agencies & Crown Corps
- Start some things already approved

Where is the New Oil Pipeline to the North Coast of BC?

Where are the NEW Mines?

Where are NEW Natural Gas Liquification Plants?

3/
We're not even asking for Construction to start

Just where are the Signed AGREEMENTS

Because that's not even hard

Organize the Meetings
Attend the Meetings
If First Nations refuse OVERRIDE them

That's actually how FASTER works

Decisive, Aggressive Actions

4/
Read 6 tweets
Ron Butler Profile picture
Apr 28
Prime Minister Carney Operates A Government For The Elites: It's Becoming Obvious Now

It's just out there now, it's become clearer

The 80% of Canadians who ARE NOT in the top income or top wealth brackets are being left behind

This is a Government for top tier Canadians

2/
People can say: Oh No, look at the Essentials Benefit to help lower income people hurt by inflation. Look at the reduced taxes for lower income people

None of that really helps Working Poor or Middle Class Families because Inflation still runs HOT & is about to get hotter

3/
And Wages in Canada have been suppressed for a decade

No one argues about Wage Stagnation anymore it's just accepted fact

There 2 things Middle Class Canadians need:

- Lower Taxes
- Higher Paying Jobs

And despite some bandaid policies those 2 things ain't happening

4/
Read 6 tweets
Ron Butler Profile picture
Apr 17
Peak Fuckery: Parents Who Took Out HELOCS & Mortgages To Provide Down Payments For Kids To Buy Homes In 2021 Now In Power Of Sale

Sounds crazy right? And it's not thousands of parents but it is happening right now in Ontario to some Seniors

It's tragedy & it's not fixable

2/
Think back to 2021: Real Estate was going crazy

Many RE Agents actually suggested if people didn't buy homes at sky high prices that they would be shut out of ever owning a home

Many Realtors suggested 10% or higher price increases FOREVER

Because Immigration, Blah Blah

3/
During this time of peak FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) some parents of adult children believed the hype

After all, the parents own homes had increased in value astronomically in 20 years

They wanted their kids to have the same benefits

A few parents didn't have cash to give

4/
Read 6 tweets
Ron Butler Profile picture
Apr 10
Canadian Rents Have Gone Down 18 STRAIGHT MONTHS & More New Construction Rental Supply Is Coming Than Ever Before In History

Yeah, Mom & Pop Landlords who bought units in the last 6 years knew things were bad

But in some Canadian cities we're headed for Landlord HELL

2/
Not even kidding

If you bought a Pre-Con Condo in 2020 - 2022 in Toronto or Vancouver you were already in big trouble on Price

You paid way too much

But if you managed to close you were faced with big Negative Cash Flow

Which is bad: but it's going to get WORSE

3/
It's a Perfect Storm of Landlord destruction in some big Canadian Metro Areas

- Every Year Expenses RISE: Condo / Strata Maintenance Fees & Property Tax increase every year

- With CMHC support there has NEVER been as many new Multi-family Purpose Built Rentals coming

4/
Read 6 tweets
Ron Butler Profile picture
Apr 9
Conservatives Members Of Parliament Crossing The Floor To Become Liberals: Those MPs Were BOUGHT

I don't think we can end Floor Crossings because it's just too hard, it's almost a Constitutional change

But look at WHY people elected to represent one party switch parties

2/
It's because they're BRIBED to do it

Not bribed with money, bribed with Perks, bribed with quiet promises of future higher paying positions in Parliament, bribed with assurance of Party Support in the next election, bribed with Polling numbers that favor the Liberals

3/
And the reason these very small time bribes work is twofold

1) Loyalty to a Party is dying in Canadian politics
2) Some Back Bench MPs are pretty small, shitty people, total opportunitists

Real Party loyalty started dying in the 90's

Too many people became transactional

4/
Read 6 tweets

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