Thread by @NikMilanovic

Consumer payments aren’t just a product line anymore.
They’re the next war zone.

@jpmorgan's CEO Jamie Dimon published his annual shareholder letter this week, and he flagged an interesting dynamic for banks and fintechs:

@jpmorgan The battle lines?
→ Data access
→ Third-party rails
→ Direct-to-consumer models

Fintech saw them as an opportunity.
Banks now see them as a threat.

@jpmorgan This isn’t just about regulation.
It’s existential.

Banks are investing heavily, rethinking partnerships, and defending distribution.
Not because payments are nice-to-have. Because they’re how you own the customer.

@jpmorgan Why?

JPM now moves $10T+ across 160 countries daily, safeguards $35T in assets, and just closed its seventh straight year of record revenue ($180.6B in 2024).

@jpmorgan Payments have become the new battleground not just because they’re profitable but because they’re how you own the customer relationship.

And this comes as macro pressure tightens.

@jpmorgan Dimon’s letter drops a broader warning:
→ Tariffs are back
→ Inflation is stickier
→ Volatility is rising
→ Consumer spending might roll over

@jpmorgan The message is clear:

Slower growth.
More fragmentation.
Rates higher for longer.
And a rising natural rate (r*) that’s here to stay.

@jpmorgan Fintech isn’t playing on easy mode anymore.

If your model depends on low rates, cheap capital, or friendly bank infra—
Recalibrate.

@jpmorgan The next cycle will favour:
→ Margin discipline
→ Infra that can bend without breaking
→ Business models that survive without subsidies

Not just in payments. Everywhere.

pymnts.com/news/banking/2…