Election Maps UK Profile picture
May 1 6 tweets 1 min read Read on X
Election Day Rumours Thread!

Take all the following information with several handfuls of salt.
Runcorn & Helsby:

Very much a coin-toss and could still go either way. Labour thought earlier in week they were *just* ahead (by hundreds, not thousands), Tories also seem to think Labour are ahead, maybe by 1-2k.
Mayoral Races:

LDs close in Hull & East Yorkshire but Reform are still narrow favourites. West of England looks close between Labour and Greens with both Reform & LDs uncomfortably close behind...
...Only good news for CONs is they’re on for a strong win in Cambs. & Peterborough, with Reform 2nd. Labour set to scrape by in N. Tyneside and Doncaster is a toss-up (Mayor sounds better for them than council). Not heard much from Lincs but expect Reform will win there.
Councils:

Bean hearing very mixed messaging regarding turnout, so it will probably be about average for local elections. LDs seem to being doing well across all their target areas, could gain a lot tonight.
Labour worried of large losses to Reform in deprived areas and to Greens/Inds in urban areas (though there aren’t loads up), but might gain some seats in middle-class towns where main opposition is CONs, who are losing votes across the board (as expected).

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More from @ElectionMapsUK

Dec 29, 2023
2023 Council By-Election Results:

Seat Totals (157 Elections for 159 Seats):

LAB: 60 (+6)
LDM: 41 (+19)
CON: 25 (-24)
GRN: 16 (+7)
IND: 9 (+2)
LOC: 5 (-4)
PC: 3 (=)
SNP: 0 (-6) Image
Vote Share:

LAB: 29.3% (+0.3)
CON: 25.9% (-4.6)
LDM: 20.5% (+6.3)
GRN: 10.5% (-0.5)
IND: 6.4% (+0.4)
Others: 3.4% (-1.1)
SNP: 2.7% (-1.1)
PC: 0.7% (-0.1)
RFM: 0.6% (+0.3)

Total Votes: 287,638
By-Election turnout was 67.4% of regular election turnout. Image
Seats last contested in 2021 ONLY (i.e. those up for election in May 24):

Seats:
LDM: 14 (+8)
LAB: 13 (+5)
GRN: 8 (+6)
CON: 7 (-17)
LOC: 1 (-3)

Votes:
CON: 28.7% (-11.6)
LAB: 25.1% (+1.4)
LDM: 22.7% (+9.6)
GRN: 14.5% (+1.2)
IND: 5.7% (+1.8)
Others: 2.5% (-2.7)
RFM: 0.9% (+0.9)
Image
Image
Read 4 tweets
Oct 19, 2021
Here they are in full, the first draft of the 2023 Boundaries for Great Britain:

(2019 Equivalent Seat Projections from New Statesman for England, and Electoral Calculus for Scotland/Wales).
Explore them in full here: electionmaps.uk/2023-boundaries
Numbers:

CON: 373 (+8)
LAB: 197 (-5)
SNP: 48 (=)
LDM: 10 (-1)
PLC: 2 (-2)
GRN: 1 (=)

Speaker: 1 (=)

Conservative majority of 96 (+16)
Read 4 tweets
Nov 16, 2020
Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 40% (=)
CON: 38% (+3)
LDM: 5% (-2)
GRN: 5% (+1)
SNP: 5% (=)
BXP: 4% (-2)

Via @YouGov, 11-12 Nov.
Changes w/ 4-5 Nov.
Which of the following do you think would make the best Prime Minister?

Keir Starmer: 34% (-2)
Boris Johnson: 28% (+2)

Via @YouGov, 11-12 Nov.
Changes w/ 4-5 Nov.
How well or badly do you think the government are doing at
handling Britain's exit from the European Union?

Well: 28% (-2)
Badly: 59% (+3)
NET: -31% (-5)

Via @YouGov, 11-12 Nov.
Changes w/ 4-5 Nov.
Read 4 tweets
Jul 10, 2020
Why is Labour still behind in the polls? THREAD:

Though Johnson's approval ratings have fallen since the start of lockdown (+32% in April, -1% so far in July), he still has the backing of 2019 CON voters (only 15% Disapprove). So there's not many CON to LAB switchers.
A positive for LAB is that these switchers seem to be red-wall voters, rather than inner-city voters.

Starmer is an asset to LAB rather than a liability (Twitter would make you think otherwise). He has a net +20% approval compared to net ±0% approval for the Labour Party.
...but many voters that Labour needs to win over also approve of Johnson, so not many are switching. Most of Labours' ground gained since GE2019 has been from LD voters.
Read 5 tweets
Jul 2, 2020
ElectionMapsUK x @RedfieldWilton Exclusive Polling (1st Jul):
Approval:

Sturgeon:
App: 45% (+4)
Disapp: 24% (-2)
NET: +21%

Starmer:
App: 39% (-2)
Disapp: 21% (+3)
NET: +18%

Johnson:
App: 44% (-2)
Disapp: 37% (+2)
NET: +7%

Berry & Bartley:
App: 19% (-1)
Disapp: 14% (=)
NET: +5%

Davey & Pack:
App: 16% (-4)
Disapp: 19% (-1)
NET: -3% Image
Party Approval Rating (Since GE2019:

Conservative:
Approve: 41%
Disapprove: 36%
NET: +5%

Labour:
Approve: 31%
Disapprove: 29%
NET: +2% Image
Read 12 tweets
Dec 22, 2019
#GE2019 if only 18-24 year-olds could vote:

LAB: 544 (56%)
SNP: 58 (5%)
LDM: 22 (11%)
CON: 4 (21%)
GRN: 1 (4%)
PLC: 1 (0.5%)
IND: 1

Northern Ireland: SF 7, DUP 6, ALL 2, SDLP 2, UUP 1.

Labour Majority of 438.
#GE2019 if only 25-49 year-olds could vote:

LAB: 310 (43%)
CON: 240 (34%)
SNP: 56 (5%)
LDM: 21 (13%)
PLC: 3 (0.5%)
GRN: 1 (3%)

Northern Ireland: DUP 8, SF 7, SDLP 2, ALL 1.

Labour 16 short of a Majority.
#GE2019 if only 50-64 year-olds could vote:

CON: 421 (50%)
LAB: 149 (17%)
SNP: 47 (4%)
LDM: 9 (12%)
PLC: 4 (0.5%)
GRN: 1 (3%)

Northern Ireland: DUP 8, SF 6, SDLP 2, ALL 1, UUP 1.

Conservative Majority of 192.
Read 6 tweets

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