Take all the following information with several handfuls of salt.
Runcorn & Helsby:
Very much a coin-toss and could still go either way. Labour thought earlier in week they were *just* ahead (by hundreds, not thousands), Tories also seem to think Labour are ahead, maybe by 1-2k.
Mayoral Races:
LDs close in Hull & East Yorkshire but Reform are still narrow favourites. West of England looks close between Labour and Greens with both Reform & LDs uncomfortably close behind...
...Only good news for CONs is they’re on for a strong win in Cambs. & Peterborough, with Reform 2nd. Labour set to scrape by in N. Tyneside and Doncaster is a toss-up (Mayor sounds better for them than council). Not heard much from Lincs but expect Reform will win there.
Councils:
Bean hearing very mixed messaging regarding turnout, so it will probably be about average for local elections. LDs seem to being doing well across all their target areas, could gain a lot tonight.
Labour worried of large losses to Reform in deprived areas and to Greens/Inds in urban areas (though there aren’t loads up), but might gain some seats in middle-class towns where main opposition is CONs, who are losing votes across the board (as expected).
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Though Johnson's approval ratings have fallen since the start of lockdown (+32% in April, -1% so far in July), he still has the backing of 2019 CON voters (only 15% Disapprove). So there's not many CON to LAB switchers.
A positive for LAB is that these switchers seem to be red-wall voters, rather than inner-city voters.
Starmer is an asset to LAB rather than a liability (Twitter would make you think otherwise). He has a net +20% approval compared to net ±0% approval for the Labour Party.
...but many voters that Labour needs to win over also approve of Johnson, so not many are switching. Most of Labours' ground gained since GE2019 has been from LD voters.