Election Day Rumours Thread!

Take all the following information with several handfuls of salt. Runcorn & Helsby:

Very much a coin-toss and could still go either way. Labour thought earlier in week they were *just* ahead (by hundreds, not thousands), Tories also seem to think Labour are ahead, maybe by 1-2k.

2023 Council By-Election Results:

Seat Totals (157 Elections for 159 Seats):

LAB: 60 (+6)
LDM: 41 (+19)
CON: 25 (-24)
GRN: 16 (+7)
IND: 9 (+2)
LOC: 5 (-4)
PC: 3 (=)
SNP: 0 (-6) Vote Share:

LAB: 29.3% (+0.3)
CON: 25.9% (-4.6)
LDM: 20.5% (+6.3)
GRN: 10.5% (-0.5)
IND: 6.4% (+0.4)
Others: 3.4% (-1.1)
SNP: 2.7% (-1.1)
PC: 0.7% (-0.1)
RFM: 0.6% (+0.3)

Total Votes: 287,638
By-Election turnout was 67.4% of regular election turnout.

Here they are in full, the first draft of the 2023 Boundaries for Great Britain:

(2019 Equivalent Seat Projections from New Statesman for England, and Electoral Calculus for Scotland/Wales). Explore them in full here: electionmaps.uk/2023-boundaries

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 40% (=)
CON: 38% (+3)
LDM: 5% (-2)
GRN: 5% (+1)
SNP: 5% (=)
BXP: 4% (-2)

Via @YouGov, 11-12 Nov.
Changes w/ 4-5 Nov. Which of the following do you think would make the best Prime Minister?

Keir Starmer: 34% (-2)
Boris Johnson: 28% (+2)

Via @YouGov, 11-12 Nov.
Changes w/ 4-5 Nov.

Why is Labour still behind in the polls? THREAD:

Though Johnson's approval ratings have fallen since the start of lockdown (+32% in April, -1% so far in July), he still has the backing of 2019 CON voters (only 15% Disapprove). So there's not many CON to LAB switchers. A positive for LAB is that these switchers seem to be red-wall voters, rather than inner-city voters.

Starmer is an asset to LAB rather than a liability (Twitter would make you think otherwise). He has a net +20% approval compared to net ±0% approval for the Labour Party.

ElectionMapsUK x @RedfieldWilton Exclusive Polling (1st Jul): Approval:

Sturgeon:
App: 45% (+4)
Disapp: 24% (-2)
NET: +21%

Starmer:
App: 39% (-2)
Disapp: 21% (+3)
NET: +18%

Johnson:
App: 44% (-2)
Disapp: 37% (+2)
NET: +7%

Berry & Bartley:
App: 19% (-1)
Disapp: 14% (=)
NET: +5%

Davey & Pack:
App: 16% (-4)
Disapp: 19% (-1)
NET: -3%

#GE2019 if only 18-24 year-olds could vote:

LAB: 544 (56%)
SNP: 58 (5%)
LDM: 22 (11%)
CON: 4 (21%)
GRN: 1 (4%)
PLC: 1 (0.5%)
IND: 1

Northern Ireland: SF 7, DUP 6, ALL 2, SDLP 2, UUP 1.

Labour Majority of 438. #GE2019 if only 25-49 year-olds could vote:

LAB: 310 (43%)
CON: 240 (34%)
SNP: 56 (5%)
LDM: 21 (13%)
PLC: 3 (0.5%)
GRN: 1 (3%)

Northern Ireland: DUP 8, SF 7, SDLP 2, ALL 1.

Labour 16 short of a Majority.

Guto Bebb MP (CON, Aberconwy) has lost the the Conservative whip.

Richard Benyon MP (CON, Newbury) has lost the Conservative whip.

Steve Brine MP (CON, Winchester) has lost the the Conservative whip.

[1/7] Alistair Burt MP (CON, N.E. Bedfordshire) has lost the the Conservative whip.

Greg Clark MP (CON, Tunbridge Wells) has lost the the Conservative whip.

Kenneth Clarke MP (CON, Rushcliffe) has lost the Conservative whip.

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ElectionMapsUK Political Party Logo World Cup Thread! Round of 32, Match A:

Labour Vs Traditional Unionist Voice

Local by-elections 16th August preview thread:

2 LAB Defences
1 CON Defence 1) East (Bury)

- LAB Defence
- Previous Result (2018): LAB 59%, CON 34%, GRN 7%
- Standing: CON, LAB, LDM, UKIP, GRN
- Prediction: LAB Hold

THREAD: BORN THIS DAY, 1925 Anthony Wedgwood Benn (better known as Tony Benn). Always outspoken, here are a few of his more memorable quotes... 1/ "The Labour party has never been a socialist party, although there have always been socialists in it - a bit like Christians in the Church of England." 2/

THREAD: ON THIS DAY 1881, riots took place in #Basingstoke by locals who’d had enough of the Salvation Army’s weekly temperance parades & took matters into their own hands. This resulted in THE BATTLE OF CHURCH SQUARE.

It pitted church vs church, & mayor vs council. Read on...1/ By 1880 Basingstoke had a population of 6,500 who were fond of a drink or two & supporting 50 pubs & 3 breweries in the town.
2/

THREAD: On this day in 1355 there was the MOTHER OF ALL STUDENT RIOTS in Oxford which resulted in 470 years of humiliation to Oxford’s local government officials & resulted in the equivalent deaths (factored up for today’s population) of 1,800 students & 900 locals. Read on:
1/ It all kicked off in a pub called the Swindlestock Tavern when two Oxford Students - Walter Spryngeheuse & Roger de Chesterfield (posh-boys no doubt)- complained about the quality of the wine being served. 2/

THREAD: I’ve just discovered my all time new favourite ever MP.

JOHN “MAD JACK” MYTTON was Tory MP for Shrewsbury 1819-29, but lasted only 30 minutes in the Commons before getting bored & never returning.

He wasn’t exactly “conservative” in his outlook. Read on... 1/ Born into a wealthy family in Shropshire he inherited the family seat aged just 2.

Expelled from Westminster School & then Harrow he was home-schooled after that by terrorised tutors.

Gaining a place in Cambridge, he arrived with 2,000 bottles of port.

He never graduated. 2/

THREAD: 2018 marks 100 years since (some) women got the vote nationally, the right to stand for parliament & the first election victory for a woman in a UK general election.

I thought I’d introduce you to the very first 10 women to be elected MPs...

(You’ve met some before) 1/ 1. CONSTANCE MARKIEVICZ

Elected as the Sinn Fein MP for Dublin St Patricks in 1918 (2 yrs after being sentenced to death) Markievicz never took up her seat at Westminster serving instead in the Dail as Minister for Labour - making her Europe’s first female cabinet minister. 2/