The House Ways and Means tax bill released today is skewed in favor of rich people, is even more costly than the original 2017 law, and fails to deliver for working-class families and small businesses.
A thread 🧵
Let’s start w/ the bill’s failure to deliver for families on the #ChildTaxCredit – 17 million kids today do not get the full $2,000 max credit b/c their families don’t earn enough – these are parents who drive delivery trucks, clean offices, care for the elderly, etc.
None of these 17 million kids from low-income families will get a dime of the Republicans’ proposed increase in the #CTC as Kris Cox explains here ⬇️ bsky.app/profile/krisyc…
For all the rhetoric we will hear about small businesses on Tuesday, it’s notable that House Rs propose to do nothing but watch the health premiums of 3 million small businesses owners – and 21 million low/middle inc people overall – skyrocket:
While ignoring small biz health care needs & leaving millions of working-class fams behind, the bill throws a gold-plated kitchen sink of tax cuts at high-income ppl – incl expanded discounts for wealthy partnerships, tax-free millions for heirs, & new windfalls for shareholders.
While 3 million small business owners will see their health insurance premiums skyrocket, wealthy partnerships will receive an even larger pass-through deduction – rising from 20% to a 23% deduction.
While House Rs excluded critical improvements to the #ChildTaxCredit that 169 of them voted for last year (Smith-Wyden bill), they included ALL of the add’l corporate tax cuts that were in that same bill, plus permanent lower tax rates on corporations’ foreign income.
These new corporate tax cuts come on top of the already permanent corp tax cuts – which delivered an eye-popping 83% of benefits to the households with incomes in the top 1%.
And while Republicans left out 17 million children in low-income families from their Child Tax Credit proposal, they increased to $30 million per couple the amount that can be bequeathed tax-free to trust fund kids.
And none of the much-touted new tax exemptions change the picture.
No tax on tips barely registers b/c it affects a tiny share of workers. (Chart is from an older bill but same story here.) And deductions for overtime & seniors add to the cost but don’t fundamentally change the story either (& leave out lower income filers).
And for all of the feigned concern about budget deficits, the House bill likely costs hundreds of billions more than a full extension of the already bloated 2017 tax law. (More to come when JCT scores are released.) The ultimate cost would be much higher without budget gimmicks.
Meanwhile, the Ways and Means bill does nothing about the elephant that is going to be in their hearing room on Tuesday: the Trump tariffs --- which would erase much of the small working-class gains from their skewed tax bill while risking recession.
The tax cuts will be partly offset by taking away/cutting food assistance, health coverage, income assistance, & college aid, making it harder for people to afford their basic needs and limiting opportunity.
This is an upside-down plan that walks away from campaign promises to serve those at the margins of the economy.
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With House Republicans meeting to begin to flesh out their tax bill, it feels like an important time for a thread on what a better tax bill would look like.
One easy course correction Republicans should take: don’t take healthcare and help buying groceries away from families or make college more expensive for the people you’re supposed to be helping. Press delete on the left side of this chart.
Another easy course correction for Rs: let the tax cuts for people w/ incomes > $400k expire. We have big budget deficits. They’ve been doing & will do great. They can pay a fairer amount of tax. Avoids losing about $2 Trillion
Feels like a good day to repeat that there is no reason rich car dealers, beer distributors, & gas station owners – who don’t pay corporate taxes – should not pay individual income taxes like other rich people
Passthrough deduction is a trickle-down failure that should end
The passthrough deduction is heavily tilted in favor of very rich people who are doing great and don’t need these tax cuts to continue
It failed to trickle down: A group of economists, including from Treasury and the Federal Reserve, found no evidence that the deduction provided any boost to wages – or anything else nber.org/system/files/w…
The top tax policy priority in year-end negotiations should be delivering the full #ChildTaxCredit to 19M children who now get < the full amount or zero b/c their families’ incomes are too low.
Our new report w/ state-by-state numbers on these children: cbpp.org/research/feder…
The business community is pressing Congress to pass corporate tax cuts– undoing provisions of the Trump tax law that offset some of the cost of huge corporate rate cuts. The #ChildTaxCredit is a far higher priority & certainly no corporate tax cuts should proceed w/o the #CTC.
As the success of the #AmericanRescuePlan showed, a high rate of child poverty is a policy choice. The year-end tax negotiations are the time when policymakers should choose to lower child poverty, not push it higher.
Even if one agrees that non-economic issues have increased in importance, in a world where nothing matters but everything matters, economic policy debates still matter
And the fact that many social conservatives are more economically liberal than sometimes assumed is critical
Consider the upcoming tax debate, where Republicans again will push extending tax cuts for wealthy, add to corporate windfalls, & prioritize tax havens. There is a broad liberal-social conservative coalition to be energized to beat this every time & to do the exact opposite
Here is a three-part thread on the IRS funding in the Inflation Reduction Act:
1.Current state of the IRS: gutted by Republicans
2.This bill funds a re-build: computer systems and workforce to reduce the tax gap 3.Republican response is reckless and needs to be engaged
Starting in 2010, Republicans, particularly in the House, gutted the IRS. Phone calls are not answered, computer systems are held together, in effect, with duck tape, and the audit rate for millionaires has plummeted:
The audit staff, especially those that audit the most sophisticated high-income & big corp returns, needs to be rebuilt. The ranks of these top auditors have been cut 40% since 2010 – to a level not seen since the mid-1950s – the economy today is over 7 times the size it was then
Here’s a quick thread on the 1% excise tax on stock buybacks that the Senate is now adding to the Inflation Reduction Act.
It’s excellent policy. It passed the House and it raises $125 billion over ten years.
Corporations have two basic ways to distribute profits to their shareholders: issue dividends (the traditional route) or offer to buy back a certain number of their own shares, which in turn raises the value of remaining stocks held by individuals and institutions
While dividends and stock buybacks are economically similar, they are taxed differently.