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Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
@michael_hoerger
Jun 9 • 7 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
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1) PMC COVlD Dashboard, June 9, 2025

CDC wastewater surveillance data show transmission rising. This is our forecast if transmission growth follows typical patterns.

The high & low estimates could be thought of as optimistic & pessimistic scenarios for NB.1.8.1.Forecast graph: Rising transmission the next month
2) PMC COVlD Dashboard, June 9, 2025

Notice that current transmission (red line, lower left) tracks closely with two years ago (yellow), slightly below the median (gray), and not far below last year (orange).

Consider each of these trajectories realistic scenarios.Image
3) PMC COVlD Dashboard, June 9, 2025

All indications are that we are headed into the start of an 11th national wave in the U.S.

We could percolate near the lull point another couple weeks (fingers crossed), but that scenario is becoming less likely.Graph of 10 C19 waves
4) PMC COVlD Dashboard, June 9, 2025

In fact, we are presently seeing regional surges in Alaska & Louisiana.

I'm in Louisiana. We were the slowest to come down from high transmission and only had a *2-week* lull before shooting up again. #NB181?

5) PMC COVlD Dashboard, June 9, 2025

Validated wastewater case estimates suggest 1.8 million weekly infections in the U.S.

Estimates derived from Swiss Re suggest those infections will result in 600-1,100 excess deaths.

Now consider the brutality of the next wave. 🪦Current Levels for Jun 9, 2025 % of the Population Infectious 0.5% (1 in 189) New Daily Infections 253000 New Weekly Infections 1771000 Resulting Weekly Long COVID Cases 89,000 to 354,000 Resulting Weekly Excess Deaths 600 to 1,100 Monthly Forecast Average % of the Population Infectious 0.8% (1 in 119) Average New Daily Infections 402766.6667 New Infections During the Next Month 12083000 Resulting Monthly Long COVID Cases 604,000 to 2,417,000 Resulting Monthly Excess Deaths 4,300 to 7,200 Running Totals Infections Nationwide in 2025 71941000 Average Number of In...
6) PMC COVlD Dashboard, June 9, 2025

You can learn more about our Swiss Re derived excess death estimates through this video, also available on the dashboard website.

Shortcut to the Swiss Re report:

Everyone should read that report. 👆tinyurl.com/swiss19
7) PMC COVlD Dashboard, June 9, 2025

Find the full dashboard at

We made the website more mobile friendly a few weeks ago and will have several exciting updates in late June & July.

Please use, edit, improve, and share across platforms 🙏pmc19.com/dataFull dashboard, summarized in thread

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More from @michael_hoerger

Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Jun 3
1/ PMC COVlD Dashboard, June 2, 2025 (U.S.)

National COVlD transmission recently fell to its lowest levels since the pre-Delta era.

It's go-time for many who have delayed medical appointments. The situation will likely get much worse in Jul/Aug.
2/ PMC COVlD Dashboard, June 2, 2025 (U.S.)

An estimated 1 in 211 are actively infectious. Most states are "low" or "very low" per CDC.

The situation remains serious even in a relative "lull." >1.5 million weekly estimated infections to result in 600-900 excess deaths.C19 heat map
year over year graph, tracking closely with the median and past 2 years
Current Levels for Jun 2, 2025 % of the Population Infectious 0.5% (1 in 211) New Daily Infections 227000 New Weekly Infections 1589000 Resulting Weekly Long COVID Cases 79,000 to 318,000 Resulting Weekly Excess Deaths 600 to 900 Monthly Forecast Average % of the Population Infectious 0.7% (1 in 139) Average New Daily Infections 344566.6667 New Infections During the Next Month 10337000 Resulting Monthly Long COVID Cases 517,000 to 2,067,000 Resulting Monthly Excess Deaths 3,700 to 6,200 Running Totals Infections Nationwide in 2025 70132000 Average Number of Infe...
Graph of the whole pandemic, 11th wave forthcoming
3/ PMC COVlD Dashboard, June 2, 2025 (U.S.)

By the end of the month, we forecast an increase to 450k daily infections. If NB.1.8.1 takes off, closer to 600k. If overhyped, percolating only slightly higher.Past 12 months and forecast
Read 5 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
May 26
1) PMC Dashboard, May 26, 2025 (U.S.)

The lull exit is coming. Despite being in a lull:

🔥1 in 180 actively infectious
🔥1.9 million weekly infections
🔥>93,000 new #LongCOVID cases from the week's infections
🔥1,100 excess deaths from the week's infections

This is a "lull."
2) PMC Dashboard, May 26, 2025 (U.S.)

The forecast calls for a near-doubling in transmission the next month to 450k daily infections.

The 95% confidence interval includes flat transmission (percolating), or escalating to 650k (if NB.1.8.1 takes off). Forecasting graph, summarized in post
3) PMC Dashboard, May 26, 2025 (U.S.)

Looking at year-over-year transmission, 2025 (red) is closely tracking the median (gray).

It transmission accelerates, it could look more like last year (orange). If it slows, more like two years ago (yellow). Year-over-year graph summarized in post
Read 7 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
May 25
1) CDC & Biobot wastewater surveillance both show the West region in an apparent uptick in C19 transmission.

Here's the graph of regional transmission from CDC data with the West in green: Estimated Percentage Actively Infectious* PMC Model Raw CDC Data National 0.6% (1 in 180) 0.5% (1 in 196) Northeast 0.4% (1 in 236) 0.4% (1 in 257) Midwest 0.5% (1 in 209) 0.4% (1 in 227) South 0.6% (1 in 160) 0.6% (1 in 175) West 0.8% (1 in 129) 0.7% (1 in 140)
2) This image zooms in on the West (green line) so you can see the apparent departure from the C19 lull more easily. Zoomed in graph from prior post. More stats in the ALT text there.
3) Biobot still provides national & regional C19 updates. They usually post sometime between Thursday morning & Saturday evening. IMO, their most recent data point can be viewed as the Wednesday of the prior week.

Like the CDC, they have an apparent uptick in the West (green). Biobot graph. What's striking is that the peak (for any region) is almost identical the past 3 waves, though the West apparently runs cooler on average. The West is presently highest and increasing, whereas the other regions are lower and still trending down at the time of these data.
Read 6 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
May 20
PMC COVlD Report, May 19, 2025 (U.S.)

In this national "lull" in transmission, we are seeing...
🔥A quarter-million daily infections
🔥90-360k Long COVlD cases from the week's infections
🔥600-1,100 deaths from the week's infections
🔥LA, SD, NE, & GU in high transmission10 waves of C19
Heat map, summarized in post
Current Levels for May 19, 2025 % of the Population Infectious 0.5% (1 in 185) New Daily Infections 259000 New Weekly Infections 1813000 Resulting Weekly Long COVID Cases 91,000 to 363,000 Resulting Weekly Excess Deaths 600 to 1,100 Monthly Forecast Average % of the Population Infectious 0.8% (1 in 129) Average New Daily Infections 371566.6667 New Infections During the Next Month 11147000 Resulting Monthly Long COVID Cases 557,000 to 2,229,000 Resulting Monthly Excess Deaths 4,000 to 6,600 Running Totals Infections Nationwide in 2025 66986000 Average Number of I...
Year-over-year graph, currently closely tracking the median, Y4, and Y5
Full report: pmc19.com/data
PMC COVlD updates are also posted periodically on Plip Plop:

tiktok.com/@michael_hoerg…
Read 6 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
May 15
1) Good luck getting any new federal research to support #LongCOVID until "covid" is dropped from the dirty words that get grant applications triaged to the trash bin.

You know which senator to call.

I just did, and got a staffer instead of voicemail.Lengthy list of words that get federal grants triaged to the trash bin, unfunded after favorable review, or defunded if already in progress. Includes "Covid-19," and no, it's not a matter of simply restating as "SARS2" or "The Rona." It might make it one step further in the review process, but this gets checked closed, and it will get canned. Hundreds of hours of work, flushed down the toilet. And that's the point.
2) I told the staffer that #LongCOVID is affecting millions and that no research will be funded to address this while "covid" remains on the banned word list.

I asked if they wanted to hear more. He did...

Here's the word list, btw
pen.org/banned-words-l…
3) I told them about my family member who was a strong Special Forces veteran, got covid once, & according to their neurologist, it triggered #LongCOVID in the form of Dementia w/Lewy Bodies.

DLB is one of the worst conditions imaginable. After a 2yr battle, they died in 2024.
Read 5 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
May 3
30 million excess deaths attributable to COVID is a tremendous underestimate because most analyses insufficiently account for mortality displacement.

In the U.S., it's about 50% worse than people realize.
Mortality displacement or "harvesting" is the idea that so many people died of COVID in the early pandemic that we should actually expect to see *fewer* deaths today if COVID were "over."
In fact, we see similar or slightly higher mortality relative to pre-pandemic levels. Despite the millions of people that have died, the mortality faucet keeps running strong. It should have slowed.
Read 9 tweets

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